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PostPosted: March 12 18, 4:27 pm 
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Phillies were projected to win 74 games. After replacement cancellation, Arrieta is going to be worth about 2 new wins. I think ZIPS shows them at 76 now, accordingly. So he still doesn't even get them to .500. We're talking maybe 77-79 wins if he exceeds expectations. In the expanded Wild Card era, no team has made it to the play-in game with less than 87 wins. That would still leave the Phillies 8-10 wins short. And this is already after giving them credit for about an 8-win improvement over last year (which is aggressive but probably a fair prediction).

(Baseball Prospectus is a little higher on the Phillies, by a few wins, for the record.)

There's no shortage of people rattling off names of young Phils to show off how in tune they are with MLB's sleeping giant, but I think people are getting carried away. If this team wins 80 games, a lot went right. And if 80 wins puts them in a Wild Card, then a helluva lot more went wrong with about six clubs in front of them.

I think the Phillies are opportunists buying low. None of this precludes them from signing one of the big free agents next year, but it does put some meat on the bones for when they're making their pitch next winter. Having Arrieta and Santana for three years and some options lines up well for a win-now pitch. Neshek and Hunter helps too. Makes for less work-to-be-done next offseason.


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PostPosted: March 12 18, 4:52 pm 
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Hoot45 wrote:
Phillies were projected to win 74 games. After replacement cancellation, Arrieta is going to be worth about 2 new wins. I think ZIPS shows them at 76 now, accordingly. So he still doesn't even get them to .500. We're talking maybe 77-79 wins if he exceeds expectations. In the expanded Wild Card era, no team has made it to the play-in game with less than 87 wins. That would still leave the Phillies 8-10 wins short. And this is already after giving them credit for about an 8-win improvement over last year (which is aggressive but probably a fair prediction).

(Baseball Prospectus is a little higher on the Phillies, by a few wins, for the record.)

There's no shortage of people rattling off names of young Phils to show off how in tune they are with MLB's sleeping giant, but I think people are getting carried away. If this team wins 80 games, a lot went right. And if 80 wins puts them in a Wild Card, then a helluva lot more went wrong with about six clubs in front of them.

I think the Phillies are opportunists buying low. None of this precludes them from signing one of the big free agents next year, but it does put some meat on the bones for when they're making their pitch next winter. Having Arrieta and Santana for three years and some options lines up well for a win-now pitch. Neshek and Hunter helps too. Makes for less work-to-be-done next offseason.



I think most of this is right. I don't really believe the Phillies are going to be contenders for a playoff spot this year and are probably a year away from really making their push.

At the same time, the error bars are so vast for teams that being off by 10 wins isn't really that uncommon. So, if the Phillies are projected for 76-77 wins, 86-87 shouldn't be out of the question (neither should be 66-67, to be fair.)

I'm glad that most of this board seems to reject the notion passed off by writers that there's this idea that moves are only to be made at designated, appropriate times. These are the same writers who will marvel at a team who arrives early and wonders how they did it... or lament the fact that an upstart team ran out of gas at the end.


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PostPosted: March 12 18, 6:10 pm 
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Phillies have a volatile roster filled with young players and a rookie manager. Projections for them probably aren't worth much.


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PostPosted: March 12 18, 7:14 pm 
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Hoot45 wrote:
Phillies were projected to win 74 games. After replacement cancellation, Arrieta is going to be worth about 2 new wins. I think ZIPS shows them at 76 now, accordingly. So he still doesn't even get them to .500. We're talking maybe 77-79 wins if he exceeds expectations. In the expanded Wild Card era, no team has made it to the play-in game with less than 87 wins. That would still leave the Phillies 8-10 wins short. And this is already after giving them credit for about an 8-win improvement over last year (which is aggressive but probably a fair prediction).

(Baseball Prospectus is a little higher on the Phillies, by a few wins, for the record.)

There's no shortage of people rattling off names of young Phils to show off how in tune they are with MLB's sleeping giant, but I think people are getting carried away. If this team wins 80 games, a lot went right. And if 80 wins puts them in a Wild Card, then a helluva lot more went wrong with about six clubs in front of them.

I think the Phillies are opportunists buying low. None of this precludes them from signing one of the big free agents next year, but it does put some meat on the bones for when they're making their pitch next winter. Having Arrieta and Santana for three years and some options lines up well for a win-now pitch. Neshek and Hunter helps too. Makes for less work-to-be-done next offseason.

Are the Brewers in the Wild Card hunt?

Because if you say they are (and most analysts/talking heads seem to be talking about them that way), should we really ignore the possibility of the Phils if they're only two games back?

Of the discussed Wild Contenders, the only ones above or at 87 wins are the Red Sox, Cardinals and Blue Jays. The Brewers and Rockies are sub-.500, and the Twins, Giants and Angels are all just barely over .500 (82, 82 and 84 wins respectively).

I don't think anyone is really saying that they're assuredly immediate Wild Card contenders post-Arrieta signing. Just that this puts them closer to contention, and if things fall the right way, they could be firmly in the hunt. This is a team with young talent and a young manager, and now with a questionable former ace pitcher. If the pieces fall right, they could easily be great. And if they don't, they're still building towards the future.

And as fun as it might be to mock people who are "rattling off names of young Phils," the names being thrown around are names that have either made the Show last year or are projected to make it this year. It's absolutely relevant to discuss what kind of impact they might make on a WC run.
jagtrader wrote:
Phillies have a volatile roster filled with young players and a rookie manager. Projections for them probably aren't worth much.

I mostly agree.

I don't think we should throw the projections out completely, but we don't know what their prospects are going to contribute, and we don't know what Kapler is going to do. The guy had some really interesting thoughts while he was with the Dodgers, so if he's really given free reign with the Phils...I dunno. It could be pretty cool to see what he does. He might really turn the projections on their head.


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PostPosted: March 12 18, 9:13 pm 
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Momo, I said nothing about you or to you but your rambling defense sounds a bit self-conscious. Either that or you're looking for a debate where there is not one. Maybe both. Either way, carry on. I'm glad you're excited about the Phils.


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PostPosted: March 12 18, 9:58 pm 
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Hoot45 wrote:
Momo, I said nothing about you or to you but your rambling defense sounds a bit self-conscious. Either that or you're looking for a debate where there is not one. Maybe both. Either way, carry on. I'm glad you're excited about the Phils.

"Rambling."

Nice.

Try answering the question.


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PostPosted: March 13 18, 5:27 am 
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PostPosted: March 13 18, 8:43 am 
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Quote:
Scott Boras, on future free agents looking at the Phillies as a desirable destination: "When you have players like Jake on the team, you've now crossed the bridge. It's hot coffee and ready to drink."

Meat on the bones, crossing the bridge, hot coffee ready to drink, etc. Boras hinting that adding Arrieta is as much about laying the groundwork for other free agents as it is getting the Phillies competitive right now.


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PostPosted: March 13 18, 1:29 pm 
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Momo wrote:
Hoot45 wrote:
Momo, I said nothing about you or to you but your rambling defense sounds a bit self-conscious. Either that or you're looking for a debate where there is not one. Maybe both. Either way, carry on. I'm glad you're excited about the Phils.

"Rambling."

Nice.

Try answering the question.



Momo wrote:
Hoot45 wrote:
Phillies were projected to win 74 games. After replacement cancellation, Arrieta is going to be worth about 2 new wins. I think ZIPS shows them at 76 now, accordingly. So he still doesn't even get them to .500. We're talking maybe 77-79 wins if he exceeds expectations. In the expanded Wild Card era, no team has made it to the play-in game with less than 87 wins. That would still leave the Phillies 8-10 wins short. And this is already after giving them credit for about an 8-win improvement over last year (which is aggressive but probably a fair prediction).

(Baseball Prospectus is a little higher on the Phillies, by a few wins, for the record.)

There's no shortage of people rattling off names of young Phils to show off how in tune they are with MLB's sleeping giant, but I think people are getting carried away. If this team wins 80 games, a lot went right. And if 80 wins puts them in a Wild Card, then a helluva lot more went wrong with about six clubs in front of them.

I think the Phillies are opportunists buying low. None of this precludes them from signing one of the big free agents next year, but it does put some meat on the bones for when they're making their pitch next winter. Having Arrieta and Santana for three years and some options lines up well for a win-now pitch. Neshek and Hunter helps too. Makes for less work-to-be-done next offseason.

Are the Brewers in the Wild Card hunt?

Because if you say they are (and most analysts/talking heads seem to be talking about them that way), should we really ignore the possibility of the Phils if they're only two games back?

Of the discussed Wild Contenders, the only ones above or at 87 wins are the Red Sox, Cardinals and Blue Jays. The Brewers and Rockies are sub-.500, and the Twins, Giants and Angels are all just barely over .500 (82, 82 and 84 wins respectively).

I don't think anyone is really saying that they're assuredly immediate Wild Card contenders post-Arrieta signing. Just that this puts them closer to contention, and if things fall the right way, they could be firmly in the hunt. This is a team with young talent and a young manager, and now with a questionable former ace pitcher. If the pieces fall right, they could easily be great. And if they don't, they're still building towards the future.

And as fun as it might be to mock people who are "rattling off names of young Phils," the names being thrown around are names that have either made the Show last year or are projected to make it this year. It's absolutely relevant to discuss what kind of impact they might make on a WC run.
jagtrader wrote:
Phillies have a volatile roster filled with young players and a rookie manager. Projections for them probably aren't worth much.

I mostly agree.

I don't think we should throw the projections out completely, but we don't know what their prospects are going to contribute, and we don't know what Kapler is going to do. The guy had some really interesting thoughts while he was with the Dodgers, so if he's really given free reign with the Phils...I dunno. It could be pretty cool to see what he does. He might really turn the projections on their head.


Got no pony in this race but this is kind of hilarious.


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