TT! I'm glad you showed up. I saw you made that comment and didn't want to berate it behind your back because usually you have pretty objective posts.Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
I'm the one who said the Cubs have the best pitching and probably the best offense. Maybe overstating a bit with the offense, but I'm more optimistic than most about this coming season, and frankly I'm sick of thoughtless, fatalistic Cubs fans who seem to think the Cubs will be lucky to break 70 wins(exaggerated, but the sentiment is there).
Personally, I think the Cards and Cubs are 1a and 1b in the division, and the Reds and Brewers will see who can non-pitch themselves into a distant 3rd. Like I mentioned in that thread, a large part of the Cards advantage in projections is in their defense. While they certainly have some strong defenders, I'm less sold on the certainty of the value of that defense because the Cards have their best defenders at positions where the metrics are least reliable(Molina, Pujols) or in players who don't have the necessary innings under their belt for such lofty UZR numbers to be an expectation(Ryan, Rasmus). IMO the two teams aren't separated by more than a game or two, which is enough for me to say it's a tossup.
Pitching is a crap shoot this year, imo. It comes down to the health/effectiveness of Penny/Lohse for the Cards. If Lohse is Lohse 2008 and Penny is the pitcher he was with the Giants, that puts the Cards out of the Cubs reach regardless of who they throw out there every 5th day. If Lohse is 2009 Lohse and Penny is BoSox Penny, then yeah, you have a point. Behind the top two, it would be wide open with the Cubs certainly having an argument for a better staff.
Regarding Defense, however, I think it's fairly safe to say that Ryan is an established BA defender at SS. That's not going to change. Rasmus, I agree with you a little more in that he hasn't established himself yet. Still, I don't think that the projections are out of line.
