Shutting down Strasburg

[Vidor]

The context in which I heard of his contract status is that the Nats are simply saving him for the Yankees, which is probably true.

Yup, the Steinbrenners would be miffed if Washington tries too hard this October.

[pioneer98]

It's tough to compare Carp to Strasburg though. Carp was what 36-37 years old last year? Had won a Cy Young award. Had a WS ring, a couple pennants, multiple post season victories. Etc Etc Etc. He's in the twilight of his career. Would he trade another shot at a WS for two years of an increased likelihood of being injury free in the final years of his career? Hell no. That's an easy question. However, Strasburg hasn't proven [expletive] yet. He's a pissant compared to Carpenter when accomplishments are compared. Should he risk an increased likelihood of being injury free for the rest of his career for that one chance at a WS? When you compare the risk of losing two years at the end of an accomplished career vs the risk of losing 15 years of a career that just began....well, it's apples to oranges.

I agree. It's apples and oranges. A healthy Strasburg could give the Nats lots more playoff chances for many years to come. Plus, Carpenter was able to do what he did last year in part because of experience. He's been injured before, lots. He has a real good feel how far he can push himself, what it takes to pitch on 3 days' rest, etc. Strasburg is still figuring all that out.

I don't know why the Nats couldn't have saved some of Strasburg's innings. Just limit his starts or innings at the beginning of the season so that you have innings left for September and possibly October.

[heyzeus]

You should probably stop watching baseball.

No thank you! At least now I have another team to root against in the playoffs. Gotta have villains.

Will you feel the same if/when we shut down Lance Lynn this year?

[Vidor]

You should probably stop watching baseball.

No thank you! At least now I have another team to root against in the playoffs. Gotta have villains.

Will you feel the same if/when we shut down Lance Lynn this year?

If we're in the playoffs and starting, I don't know, Joe Kelly while a perfectly healthy Lynn works on his golf game? Yes, yes I will. Has there been talk of shutting down Lynn?

[pioneer98]

Oh, and here's another, scarier quote from that article above.

"In baseball, this is as groundbreaking as 'Moneyball' was in 2001," said Stan Conte, senior director of medical services for the Dodgers and a man who has been tracking baseball injury data for more than a decade.

Get used to seeing this a lot. Get used to baseball teams sitting their young pitching down because, you know, a World Series isn't important or anything.

Awful, awful, awful.

If the Nats truly understand pitching mechanics to the degree that they can predict injuries, then wouldn't the "Moneyball" play here be to draft and sign pitchers that you won't have to shut down due to injury risk? Another "Moneyball" play might be to trade away valuable but injury-prone pitchers? There might be teams willing to give up A LOT to get a guy like Strasburg. Just saying.

Strasburg's next contract will be determined at least partially by the stats he has accumulated. If they are going to shut him down, he won't have as much chance to accumulate wins, strikeouts, etc. It could impact his next contract. In this situation, many players might have demanded a trade to a team that was going to play them a full season.

[JoeMcKim]

If the Nationals get to the playoffs but get eliminated in the NLDS because they got out pitched then they will have a lot of questions to answer.

[cpebbles]

I just heard this morning that Wash has a 4-year contract with Strasburg, signed in '09. That changes things a bit. Before, I was thinking they were protecting him for the long term with them. Now I realize they only have him for one more year. I'm not saying they should run him into the ground, but like Milwaukee did with C.C., pitch him as long as he's feeling good - no hard line inning count. It's not like his agent, Boras, is going to show loyalty to the Nats for protecting him. They should be a little more aggressive in winning post-season as long as he feels okay, who knows when they'll be back.

The context in which I heard of his contract status is that the Nats are simply saving him for the Yankees, which is probably true.

He had just over one season's service time coming into this season, so the Nationals have him for four more years after this one. They just have to pay him arbitration-eligible salaries after next season.

[heyzeus]

You should probably stop watching baseball.

No thank you! At least now I have another team to root against in the playoffs. Gotta have villains.

Will you feel the same if/when we shut down Lance Lynn this year?

If we're in the playoffs and starting, I don't know, Joe Kelly while a perfectly healthy Lynn works on his golf game? Yes, yes I will. Has there been talk of shutting down Lynn?

There's been talk of it, but I think the most recent word from Matheny is that Lynn won't be shut down. So I guess the question is more of a hypothetical.

[Vidor]

If the Nationals get to the playoffs but get eliminated in the NLDS because they got out pitched then they will have a lot of questions to answer.

Or, better yet, if the Braves catch them and they get bounced in the Selig Coin Flip game. They have six games left against the Braves and seven against the Cardinals. They currently lead Atlanta by 4 games.

[Cole Burns]

Oh, and here's another, scarier quote from that article above.

"In baseball, this is as groundbreaking as 'Moneyball' was in 2001," said Stan Conte, senior director of medical services for the Dodgers and a man who has been tracking baseball injury data for more than a decade.

Get used to seeing this a lot. Get used to baseball teams sitting their young pitching down because, you know, a World Series isn't important or anything.

Awful, awful, awful.

If the Nats truly understand pitching mechanics to the degree that they can predict injuries, then wouldn't the "Moneyball" play here be to draft and sign pitchers that you won't have to shut down due to injury risk? Another "Moneyball" play might be to trade away valuable but injury-prone pitchers? There might be teams willing to give up A LOT to get a guy like Strasburg. Just saying.

I think the inclusion of the term "moneyball" is alluding to the next step of sabremetric-type analysis. In a recent article (linked here somewhere) a columnist made the observation that most MLB clubs have leveled the field with sabremetrics, so they're all looking for the next thing. At the top of the list was injury prediction and prevention. I'm not sure that they can predict Strausburg's injuries, but I'm also sure they've heard of Mr. Wood & Prior. So there's that.

True injury analysis will be individualized to the pitcher in question, so it seems odd they'd sit Strausburg without some sort of analytics. Now, maybe they are working from that, and it's just being kept under wraps (as it should to protect investments - don't reveal private health info). But the guideline should not be "Prior and Wood pitched a lot early on, and they broke down, so..." It should be finding ways to analyze health & injury as the season progresses and find ways to prevent them. Maybe it's through a regular MRI being taken, through stress & strength testing during parts of the season, etc.