Mark Buehrle's line for today

Magneto · Post by **Magneto** » February 28 07, 8:09 pm

lazypenguin wrote:In my opinion, Buehrle is one of the most over rated pitchers in the league. For the amount of praise that this guy seems to get, his numbers don't really support it. His career record is 97-66 with a 3.83 ERA. Medicore at best...

That is mediocre? You can't be serious. Those numbers are better than anyone else on our staff's (career wise), and I'd be willing to bet 90% of MLB starters, if not more.

Ace · Post by **Ace** » February 28 07, 8:11 pm

vinsanity wrote:
Ace wrote:Buehrle will have to be absolutely terrible this year for him to be making 10 million.a year in the future. Not much of a chance there.
Well I did range it from 10-12. If he throws up an ERA of 5.5, with the regression last season you think he'll clear 12?

While Marquis has 3 seasons quite a bit worse than Buerhle's, and he's a righty, their best seasons are right in line, and both are trending the wrong way at the same experience (in fact Mark is trending that way a year younger). (if you look at ERA)

He has much better ball control as shown by his BB/9, but each have similar problems with Gopher balls.

Granted this is a half-butted comparison on Fan Graphs.com [url = "here" ]http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.asp ... &type=full[/url] but I don't think Buerhle is 'twice' (14m per) as good as Marquis. So if the sox miss the playoffs and he tanks this year I don't see him clearing 12. And he only does that if someone like NYY or the Mets decide to drastically over pay in dollars or years. I could see NYM offering the guy 5/60-65

I just don't see him completely tanking this year. I don't think he will have an ERA any worse than his 4.99 last year.

I don't expect him to be a whole lot better, but probably in the 4.3-4.6 range

vinsanity · Post by **vinsanity** » February 28 07, 8:19 pm

Ace wrote:
vinsanity wrote:
Ace wrote:Buehrle will have to be absolutely terrible this year for him to be making 10 million.a year in the future. Not much of a chance there.
Well I did range it from 10-12. If he throws up an ERA of 5.5, with the regression last season you think he'll clear 12?

While Marquis has 3 seasons quite a bit worse than Buerhle's, and he's a righty, their best seasons are right in line, and both are trending the wrong way at the same experience (in fact Mark is trending that way a year younger). (if you look at ERA)

He has much better ball control as shown by his BB/9, but each have similar problems with Gopher balls.

Granted this is a half-butted comparison on Fan Graphs.com [url = "here" ]http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.asp ... &type=full[/url] but I don't think Buerhle is 'twice' (14m per) as good as Marquis. So if the sox miss the playoffs and he tanks this year I don't see him clearing 12. And he only does that if someone like NYY or the Mets decide to drastically over pay in dollars or years. I could see NYM offering the guy 5/60-65
I just don't see him completely tanking this year. I don't think he will have an ERA any worse than his 4.99 last year.

I don't expect him to be a whole lot better, but probably in the 4.3-4.6 range

Aye, that's fair. But that's where ya gotta key in to the original post

vinsanity wrote:I hope Buerhle tanks and drives his price way down.

Richie Allen · Post by **Richie Allen** » February 28 07, 9:23 pm

vinsanity wrote:Define off year?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

97 ERA+ is his worst year(As a rook it was 96 but I don't count that). I'd take it.

I'm sure '93 came as a shock to his system. Despite what some of the advanced metrics suggest, his bottom line was 11-14 with an ERA that was almost 2 points higher than his career mark at the time. And complete games were only a small fraction of what he'd been used to. Definitely "off" compared to what he had done to that point in his career. In fact, strike season aside, it would be another four years before he returned to the full season dominance that was common for him.

vinsanity · Post by **vinsanity** » February 28 07, 9:31 pm

Richie Allen wrote:
vinsanity wrote:Define off year?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero02.shtml

97 ERA+ is his worst year(As a rook it was 96 but I don't count that). I'd take it.
I'm sure '93 came as a shock to his system. Despite what some of the advanced metrics suggest, his bottom line was 11-14 with an ERA that was almost 2 points higher than his career mark at the time. And complete games were only a small fraction of what he'd been used to. Definitely "off" compared to what he had done to that point in his career. In fact, strike season aside, it would be another four years before he returned to the full season dominance that was common for him.

Which is why I asked for a definition of off year. I hope for numbers like that from 3 of our pitchers this eason. For him sure it was an off year. For others, a pretty decent one.

I guess I was going by an off year as anything below the average. Or significantly below.

Richie Allen · Post by **Richie Allen** » February 28 07, 10:03 pm

vinsanity wrote: I guess I was going by an off year as anything below the average. Or significantly below.

The original reason I brought it up was because I felt Buehrle' 2006 numbers were the worst of his career. But if you were a fan of his pitching before 2006, I was suggesting some caution before abandoning all hope of him ever again being a successful pitcher. I have read countless suggestions that his career is spiraling downwards. Or trending negatively.

With the exception of this one year, I'm not recognizing the trending. At this point, I'm chalking 2006 up as an "off" year.

Of course, if you weren't a big fan of his before 2006, which could be understood, it's a different story. Perhaps some of the doubts about him came to fruition in 06.

vinsanity · Post by **vinsanity** » February 28 07, 10:41 pm

Richie Allen wrote:
vinsanity wrote: I guess I was going by an off year as anything below the average. Or significantly below.
The original reason I brought it up was because I felt Buehrle' 2006 numbers were the worst of his career. But if you were a fan of his pitching before 2006, I was suggesting some caution before abandoning all hope of him ever again being a successful pitcher. I have read countless suggestions that his career is spiraling downwards. Or trending negatively.

With the exception of this one year, I'm not recognizing the trending. At this point, I'm chalking 2006 up as an "off" year.

Of course, if you weren't a big fan of his before 2006, which could be understood, it's a different story. Perhaps some of the doubts about him came to fruition in 06.

Oh well I responding to the notion that every pitcher as an off year.

Asmodai · Post by **Asmodai** » February 28 07, 10:45 pm

My gut is that there's something seriously wrong with his arm. He seems like someone to hide any pain. I wouldn't be shocked to see him out most of the season.

stlmark · Post by **stlmark** » February 28 07, 10:45 pm

I want Buerhle a Cardinal, however if he has another mediocre year, then forget it. Let the year play out.

vinsanity · Post by **vinsanity** » February 28 07, 10:59 pm

stlmark wrote:I want Buerhle a Cardinal, however if he has another mediocre year, then forget it. Let the year play out.

But if he has a good year he's gonna get at least a Suppan Contract. Probably closer to 4/60