GatewaySnayke wrote:I'm doing a double post tomorrow, but I put up an entry about the dwindling offense. Oh yeah, and Steverino gets a mention, because he's really the reason I made this one. And if you dislike Juan E as much as I do, then you might like this post.
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Regarding your offensive study, maybe you're looking at the wrong E in the OF.
Popeye_Card wrote:skmsw wrote:
Our lineup used to be deep AND anchored by a couple cornerstone players. Now, we have a cornerstone hitter, two very good hitters (800-900 OPS), and the rest average or below average (likely to have two regulars with <700 OPS; likely to have two other regulars with uncommonly low platoon splits; likely to have three regulars in the bottom third in OPS at their position; first INF and first OF off the bench both sub-700 OPS even in protected, reserve roles; etc).
I assume you're talking about 2004 when the team won 105 games, and scored 855 runs.
Matheny 2004: 67 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Yadi could and should be able to acheive this. His career to this point is 64.
Renteria 2004: 90 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Eckstein's career average is 88. Very slight step down vs. that year for Renteria.
Womack 2004: 93 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Kennedy's career average is 91. 4 of the last 5 seasons have been above 93, with the exception at 90 (last year).
Sanders 2004: 105 OPS+
2007 Replacement: Encarnacion's career average is 96. 3 of the last 5 seasons he has been at 99 or above. Slight step down.
Lankford 2004: 102 OPS+ (200 AB)
Walker 2004: 146 OPS+ (150 AB)
2007 Replacements: Duncan's career OPS+ is 140 in 290 AB's. We can assume a slight decline from that level. Wilson's career OPS+ is 103--right in line with Lankford's 2004. Slight decline overall. Definate defensive decline.
So where is the real difference?
Pujols 2004: 175. Career 171. Not much difference.
Rolen 2004: 160. Career 129. Certainly his career year, but we can expect a year in the 130 range.
Edmonds 2004: 173. Career 137. Last year 111. Tough to expect him to go much higher than 125. As I stated, there's your big difference that has not been replaced.
Or maybe you were talking about 2003. But that's a special year, where Renteria was way above where he normally was, plus a decent number of AB's from Drew too. That team scored 876 runs.
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And the supplement...
Popeye_Card wrote:I'll also note that there is a difference on the basepaths from the 2004 team. That team stole 111 bases. Womack, Renteria, and Sanders were all legitimate stolen base threats. The 2006 team stole 59 bases, and I don't see much of an improvement in store there in 2007.
Overall differences from 2004 team:
* Edmonds' bat
* Team speed
* Rotation depth
* Izzy health
* Defense at SS and LF
* Lefty bullpen (King and Kline were lights out)
Everywhere else, the team is pretty close to the 2004 counterpart, or slightly better (I like the righty bullpen depth better in 2007).
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I think it's clear that the difference between 2004 and now is not having that third impact bat. I haven't really seen an opportunity to do so, other than trading for Abreu last year. Giles is not that bat anymore. No one else that has been on the trade market or free agent mareket is that impact bat. So how do we fix that problem? We can ADD more offensive depth. more average and slightly above average hitters to go with Pujols and Rolen, instead of the Molina's of the world.
But let's not act like 2004 was completely different. The team was almost the
exact same in terms of OPS+ at every position except CF, where the same guy patrols. He's just not the player he was 3 years ago. Sure, it would be great to replace that, but you can't just go out an pick up a 170+ OPS+ player. That's MVP caliber production. Secondary to that, Rolen had his career year in 2004. We can't just expect that perfect storm to happen every year.
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