skmsw wrote:OK. I guess we were having different conversations then. My thoughts were regarding how some posts kept coming back to evaluating Soriano based on how overpaid he might be and what his weaknesses are that prevent hiim from being an "elite" player -- rather than on whether he actually made the Cubs a little, a lot, or not at all better on the field.
I suggest he probably makes them a lot better.
And not that I start from last year's record -- this year is different -- but it is soriano alone who added those 3 to 5 wins. Soriano is not the only player they added, or reasonably can expect improved poerformance from.
If Soriano hits his 3-year VORP average- which is a fair sample because it includes an average year, one of his worst, and his career year- then he reflects a 21 run increase over Pierre, who for all the bluster about how bad he was ran up an 18.0 VORP. And I suspect there's going to be a defensive gap in there, too (Soriano has the better arm clearly, but Pierre's range and instincts are much, much better). But I wouldn't think it'd be a huge gap. Either way, it's speculative so I'll leave it out.
DeRosa really isn't much of an upgrade at 2B at all.
Getting Lee back will surely help- much, much more than Soriano- but the question there is 'Which Lee will they get?'. Will he be the career average Lee that was good, but not great? Or will he be the 2005 monster? Given that he's coming back from injuries, I don't think it's a bad idea to think of the pre-2005 guy. And that's still an upgrade.
Lilly essentially replaces Maddux and one of Mateo/Rusch/Marmol/Guzman, and represents a decent upgrade. Marquis is the inverse Soriano; if he hits his three-year average instead of his 2006 numbers, then he's an upgrade, albeit a smaller one.
Really, I don't think there's any doubt that the Cubs have made big strides this off-season. The question to ask is "Was it enough?". Adding it all up, I get right around a 12 to 13 win improvement. Any one of the following would push them past that:
-Soriano is closer to '06 Soriano than career Soriano
-Lee is closer to '05 Lee than career Lee
-Miller or Prior give decent seasons (HUGE if's there)
-Hill takes a big step forward
They made up a lot of ground..... but did they make up enough? I'm not sure they did.