Russ Springer back for another season

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jagtrader
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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by jagtrader »

Mozeliak's first two moves were to spend $12 million on relief pitching when the rotation and lineup are filled with holes. Color me unimpressed.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by Fat Strat »

jagtrader wrote:Mozeliak's first two moves were to spend $12 million on relief pitching when the rotation and lineup are filled with holes. Color me unimpressed.
Mozeliakrivsky?

Criticize Mozeliak if you like, but these were expected moves. $3.5 is a lot for a reliever, but if you consider Springer's success the last two seasons, he's a relative steal. 2.18 era 199 era+, 0.909 whip. That kind of production usually comes in around $5-8 million and always for multiple years.

The real criticism, though, is not Izzy or Springer deals by themselves, it's the philosophy behind them, and I think that's what you're going to hit at. Izzy and Springer aren't going to make the difference in a playoff season or not unless we fill in other, more important holes. We're blowing money early and have no idea how much we really have to sign key peices.

Actually, counting the extension of Franklin, we've spent about $13.75 million on relievers.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by planet planet »

Fat Strat wrote:That kind of production usually comes in around $5-8 million and always for multiple years.
Really? How many non-closer late innings guys are making those kind of $?

Edit: Here's a list of the only guys with comparable salary to Springer's (all annual salaries). Basically, we're the Orioles of the National League (and at least they have a cheap, albeit unavailable closer).

Benitez* (Marlins) - $7 mil, originally signed as a closer, majority of the contract picked up by the Giants
Gordon* (Phillies) - $6 mil, originally signed as a closer
Tomko* (Dodgers) - $4.25 mil, swing starter
Tavarez* (Red Sox) - $3.35 mil, swing starter
Torres* (Pirates) - $3.25, originally signed as closer
Gagne* (Red Sox) - $6 mil, originally signed as closer
Farnsworth (Yanks) - $5.62 mil, biggest joke on this list
Looper* (Cardinals) - $4.5 mil, now a starter, signed as a set up guy
Speier (Angels) - $4.5 mil
Baez (Orioles) - $4.5 mil
Howry (Cubs) - $4 mil
Walker (Orioles) - $4 mil
Schoeneweis (Mets) - $3.6 mil
Hernandez (Indians) - $3.5 mil, picked up by Dodgers after DFA
Shields (Angels) - $3.5 mil
Bradford (Orioles) - $3.5 mil
Hawkins (Rockies) - $3.5 mil
Eyre (Cubs) - $3.33 mil

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skmsw
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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

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That kind of production usually comes in around $5-8 million and always for multiple years.
1) Show me the 39-year old middle reliever / set-up men with career high of 3 saves (coming off zero in 2007) who are signed to multi-year contracts for $5-8mm per.

2) Springer most certainly pitched well this year. But he gave up flukishly few homers in 2007, and has "regress toward the mean" written all over him. I fully expected that he was the sort of guy TLR would coax a strong year out of in 07 -- I also fully expect that *if* he pitches 60 innings in 08, he'll allow 10 HR and have an ERA north of 5.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by Colbert Rasmols »

I agree with Steve, though my ERA prediction would be about a run lower.

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jagtrader
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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by jagtrader »

If you have limited resources, allocating them toward old middle relievers is not a good idea. Especially when you may not contend and can't trade that middle reliever because he's tied to St. Louis. This is a bad deal unless payroll is going up dramatically.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

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1) Show me the 39-year old middle reliever / set-up men with career high of 3 saves (coming off zero in 2007) who are signed to multi-year contracts for $5-8mm per.
I specifically said that kind of production, quoting these #'s:

2.18 era 199 era+, 0.909 whip.

I said nothing about the role of the person or the age, just strictly production. A reliever that puts up a line like that usuall gets a multiyear deal worth $5-8 million, and are almost always made into closers. Those stats are better than 3/4's of the closers in baseball. You'll get paid more for the pretty save totals, but the production is what I'm intereted in. For $3.25 million, I'll take it. He's had two really good years now in succession. We definitley don't have anyone in Memphis who can come anywhere close to that.
I also fully expect that *if* he pitches 60 innings in 08, he'll allow 10 HR and have an ERA north of 5.
You don't think you're overstating that a bit? After all, he allowed 10 hr's in '06 in Houston in 59 2/3's innings pitched.

His era was a very good 3.47; whip was 1.04.

Springer's ZiPS for '08:

Code: Select all

Russ Springer             39   2.95   5   2  68   0    58.0   47   19   5   19   53 
Looper* (Cardinals) - $4.5 mil, now a starter, signed as a set up guy


Looper's making $5.5 million and has never had a season that's even remotely close to Springer's '07 stats.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by planet planet »

Fat Strat wrote:
Looper* (Cardinals) - $4.5 mil, now a starter, signed as a set up guy


Looper's making $5.5 million and has never had a season that's even remotely close to Springer's '07 stats.
Lopper's on a back loaded deal, $4.5 million is the avg. (and he was coming off a closer salary, similar to Baez). The only guys outside of Farnsworth making close to $5 mil were originally signed as closers or spot starter types. I'm not necessarily opposed to the deal in a vacuum, but it isn't a bargain. Combined with Izzy's, Franklin's, Flores' deals, we're ridiculously heavy on payroll devoted to the bullpen.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by Colbert Rasmols »

Springer's FIP was 2.81, but his xFIP was 4.01. In '06, his FIP was 4.81 and his xFIP was 5.23. In '05, his FIP was 4.20 and his xFIP was 4.23. The 2.81 would seem to be an outlier.

For his career, Springer's allowed 8.7 home runs for every 60 innings pitched, and his career ERA is 4.70. If I had to guess, I'd guess his '08 ERA will be right around 4. But projecting a reliever's ERA is a fool's errand.

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Re: Russ Springer back for another season

Post by planet planet »

planet pujolsian wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:
Looper* (Cardinals) - $4.5 mil, now a starter, signed as a set up guy


Looper's making $5.5 million and has never had a season that's even remotely close to Springer's '07 stats.
Looper's on a back loaded deal, $4.5 million is the avg. (and he was coming off a closer salary, similar to Baez). The only guys outside of Farnsworth making close to $5 mil were originally signed as closers or spot starter types. I'm not necessarily opposed to the deal in a vacuum, but it isn't a bargain. Combined with Izzy's, Franklin's, Flores' deals, we're ridiculously heavy on payroll devoted to the bullpen.

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