skmsw wrote:At this point Rasmus and Lincecum are both young, both cheap, both potentially impact players. Rasmus is an everyday player (contributes more to winning, less likely to suffer career-changing injury), thus worth more, but Lincecum is more advanced and a more proven at the major league level, thus worth more.
Fair enough. I probably took that the wrong way. I agree with you regarding pitchers versus hitters and the above quote, as well.
Why does being an everyday player contribute more to winning? The most important thing in baseball is the batter/pitcher confrontation, and on a good day a pitcher gets 30+ of those where a batter only gets 5. Over the year, it's a starting pitcher who will probably be involved in more of those than a position player. Obviously a position player contributes in other ways, but I'm not so sure when you add it all up that a position player contributes more than a pitcher.
That, plus the fact that Rasmus in my view isn't a sure thing to be the cornerstone of the franchise, might lead you to believe I would want the trade. But actually, I'd probably turn it down. Not because an everyday player contributes more, not because Rasmus is the next Edmonds, but simply that hitters are more predictable than pitchers.
A starting pitcher usually controls ~14% of plate appearances on the mound, plus a spattering of defense, and maybe 1% of the plate appearances on offense.
A position player, if he starts every day, controls ~11% of plate appearances on offense, plus his share of the defensive load, which varies by what position he plays.
The argument is that a pitcher only plays 1 out of every 5 days vs. a position player every day, but the impact that pitcher has over the 1 day is much greater than the position player on a daily basis.
EDIT: And once you get to the postseason, the starting pitcher's contribution is even bigger vs. the hitter, when teams go down to a 3 or 4 man rotation. Plus you can pitch around a hot hitter. You can't bat around a hot pitcher.
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Last edited by Popeye_Card on November 5 07, 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I actually was only talking about the volatility aspect. I know there's an exchange rate on runs saved an earned but I don't know if I've seen a great answer to your question. I'd have to think about that, or maybe Steve will chime in.
The top 25 RC leaders dwarfs the top 25 PRC leaders in 2005, for whatever that's worth.
Now, I never said that Rasmus has the ceiling of Beltran's ceiling. Right now, (unlike Beltran) I don't see Rasmus equaling some of Beltran's career best numbers.
Which is why I mentioned Cameron's best numbers as somewhere in the neighborhood of what I expect from Rasmus.
Whoever that writer was that put Rasmus ahead of Maybin and Upton is dead wrong, IMO.
Something that has to be considered is that in this free agent market, pitchers are being paid about twice as much per marginal win as position players. Unless you can steadily produce cost-controlled pitchers who are at least good enough not to sink your season, that is going to effect you.
cpebbles wrote:Something that has to be considered is that in this free agent market, pitchers are being paid about twice as much per marginal win as position players. Unless you can steadily produce cost-controlled pitchers who are at least good enough not to sink your season, that is going to effect you.
I'm not sure where that logic takes us. I'm almost reading that to mean that you trade a relatively equal hitting prospect for pitching if both are young. Is that right? Because if it cost $x on the free agent market for a "good" hitter, and $2x for a "good" pitcher, you dump your hitter to get a pitcher and then go out and spend $x in the FA market. Or better yet, spend $2x and get two for the price of one.
UK wrote:Now, I never said that Rasmus has the ceiling of Beltran's ceiling. Right now, (unlike Beltran) I don't see Rasmus equaling some of Beltran's career best numbers.
Which is why I mentioned Cameron's best numbers as somewhere in the neighborhood of what I expect from Rasmus.
Whoever that writer was that put Rasmus ahead of Maybin and Upton is dead wrong, IMO.
When I suggested Beltran, I meant to say that Beltran's averages are what I would predict would be Rasmus' ceiling. I should have been more specific in my original post.
I think it's fair to say that Colby would produce, on average, Mike Cameron's best seasons. But this thread is too damn confusing to keep up with it now.
Yes, you have to value each marginal run from a pitcher more than a marginal run from a position player. Maybe not twice as much, because a smart team on a budget is going to focus on building a strong lineup/defense and avoid overpriced pitching as much as they can.
The other complicating factor is that injury rates for pitchers are so much higher. Good projection systems, though, are going to take this into account. So if you're projecting 15 runs above replacement for a pitcher, you'd definitely trade an outfielder you projected at 15 RARP for him, and you'd probably be best off trading a 20 RARP outfielder for him. It's effectively impossible to build a strong enough lineup to cover for a replacement-level pitching staff.