Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

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JL21
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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by JL21 »

clevername wrote:why Eddie G? Because even the media at this point recognizes we only sign retreads in hopes of striking gold.
Even if that's the case, they've already got Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores. Throw in that they've brought Springer back and the only real slot that's been vacated since '07 is Percival's. AND they've got a handful of bullpen options that could easily be ready mid-2008 (Worrell and Perez come to mind).

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by AlwaysBeClosing »

RC21 wrote:
clevername wrote:why Eddie G? Because even the media at this point recognizes we only sign retreads in hopes of striking gold.
Even if that's the case, they've already got Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores. Throw in that they've brought Springer back and the only real slot that's been vacated since '07 is Percival's. AND they've got a handful of bullpen options that could easily be ready mid-2008 (Worrell and Perez come to mind).
Isn't the expectation that Kinney fill Percival's spot?

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by PujolJunkie »

Weaver? Really? I don't know. That sounds a little.. no, to me.

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by BW23 »

Here's a list of pitcher predictions from 2005, just to show accuracy of predictions:

A.J. Burnett (Marlins) - Previous prediction: Yankees - five years, $65 million
Burnett’s former team is about the only one without any interest in signing him. The Blue Jays are supposed to be the early favorites, but the Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Tigers, Cubs, Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Orioles could also be involved in the bidding. With so much money out there, a $70 million contract could be a possibility. Prediction: Mariners - five years, $65 million

Roger Clemens (Astros) - Previous prediction: Astros - one year, $18 million
It will again come down to pitching for Houston or retirement for Clemens. As hard as the end of the year was for him, it’s going to be difficult for him to quit after such an exceptional season. Prediction: Astros - one year, $18 million

Kevin Millwood (Indians) - Previous prediction: Indians - three years, $25 million
Millwood was guaranteed a total of $3 million under the terms of his one-year contract with the Indians. He’s now put himself in position to receive the No. 2 contract among the free-agent starting pitchers. GM Mark Shapiro has indicated he’ll go above and beyond what he considers prudent in order to keep him in Cleveland. Still, the Indians could be outbid by the Orioles, Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers or another team. Prediction: Indians - four years, $36 million

Jeff Weaver (Dodgers) - Previous prediction: Blue Jays - four years, $32 million
The Yankees certainly won’t have any interest and the Red Sox and Mets also figure to stay away, but Weaver will still have quite a market. Toronto and Seattle would make a lot of sense as destinations. Prediction: Blue Jays - four years, $32 million

Matt Morris (Cardinals) - Previous prediction: Nationals - four years, $36 million
Morris is probably a pretty good bet to give a team 200 respectable innings per year, but since he could make as much as Millwood or Weaver, he’s the one free-agent starter that I think it’s best to avoid completely. The Cardinals will likely end up dropping out of the bidding once the offers start rolling in. I could see him joining the Mariners if Burnett heads elsewhere. Prediction: Orioles - four years, $32 million

Jarrod Washburn (Angels) - Previous prediction: White Sox - four years, $28 million
Washburn won’t be back with the Angels and hopes to pitch in the Midwest. Unfortunately, his hometown Brewers already have two lefty starters. It no longer looks like the White Sox will have any interest, but the Cubs might. I also think Detroit is a real possibility. Prediction: Tigers - three years, $21 million

Esteban Loaiza (Nationals) - Previous prediction: Dodgers - two years, $9 million
That so much of Loaiza’s success last year came in RFK Stadium probably won’t prevent him from getting a three-year contract this winter. He turned down a two-year, $8 million contract from the Nationals and countered by asking for $21 million over three years. Prediction: Dodgers - three years, $18 million

Paul Byrd (Angels) - Previous prediction: Orioles - two years, $12 million
Byrd’s stock is on the way up after he finished the season with a 3.74 ERA. He may even get a three-year deal to become the third or fourth starter on a contender. The Angels will try to keep him. Prediction: Angels - two years, $14 million

Kenny Rogers (Rangers) - Previous prediction: Giants - two years, $10 million
It’s possible that Rogers’ ridiculous behavior in late June will prevent him from getting a multiyear deal as a free agent, but I don’t think that will be the case. Some club from a group including the Giants, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres and Orioles will give him a two-year deal. Prediction: Giants - two years, $10 million

Jamie Moyer (Mariners) - Previous prediction: Mariners - one year, $5 million
Moyer wants to keep going at age 43. Unless the right team offers him a multiyear contract, he’ll probably remain in Seattle. Prediction: Mariners - one year, $5 million

Javier Vazquez (Diamondbacks) - No prediction
Vazquez remains under contract with the Diamondbacks, but he can demand a trade and become a free agent on March 15 if he isn’t granted one. The team currently believes he won’t exercise his right to depart.


Billy Wagner (Phillies) - Previous prediction: Mets - three years, $27 million
The Mets still look like the favorites for Wagner, although the Phillies are probably going to exceed $27 million over three years in an attempt to keep him. The 34-year-old may end up getting a four-year, $40 million offer before all is said and done. Prediction: Mets - four years, $36 million

B.J. Ryan (Orioles) - Previous prediction: Orioles - four years, $34 million
The Orioles may make an offer at some point, but Ryan is expected to head elsewhere. The Yankees would love to have him as a setup man, and the Red Sox would be willing to make him the closer over Keith Foulke. Also, the loser of the Billy Wagner sweepstakes and the Blue Jays should be very much in the race. The likelihood of him remaining in the AL East is high. Prediction: Red Sox - four years, $32 million

Trevor Hoffman (Padres) - Previous prediction: Padres - one year, $7 million with a vesting option
Well, that’s not going to happen. Hoffman is not only willing to leave San Diego, but it now seems quite likely that he will. The Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays, Indians, Braves, Orioles, Tigers and Diamondbacks could be suitors. Hoffman is likely to ask for at least $27 million over three years, although that’s probably unrealistic. Prediction: Phillies - two years, $16 million

Tom Gordon (Yankees) - Previous prediction: Phillies - two years, $10 million
Although the Yankees are planning to make a competitive offer, Gordon is more likely to become a closer elsewhere than remain Mariano Rivera’s setup man. The same teams going after Hoffman should be involved here. Depending on what Ryan gets, Gordon could be the best value signing of any of the available relievers. Prediction: Braves - two years, $10 million

Bob Wickman (Indians) - Previous prediction: Retirement
Wickman has yet to say whether he’s coming back for 2006. If he does, it’s likely that he’ll stay in Cleveland and occupy the closer’s role for another year. Prediction: Indians - one year, $5 million

Ugueth Urbina (Phillies) - Previous prediction: Braves - two years, $8 million
I still think Atlanta is a possibility for Urbina, but the machete incident in Venezuela needs to be cleared up before he puts himself up for bid. He might be a late signing. Prediction: Orioles - one year, $4 million

Todd Jones (Marlins) - Previous prediction: Marlins - one year, $3.5 million
Jones could continue to close for Florida or head north to Atlanta. A return to the American League is unlikely. Prediction: Marlins - one year, $3.5 million

Kyle Farnsworth (Braves) - Previous prediction: Dodgers - three years, $10 million
There will be no shortage of opportunities for Farnsworth, who could be a closer for a lesser team or a setup man for a contender. The Yankees are thought to be interested. Prediction: Yankees - three years, $12 million

Bobby Howry (Indians) - Previous prediction: Indians - two years, $5.75 million
The Indians would probably try to re-sign Howry to close if Wickman decided to call it a career. He had a 2.47 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP last season, so there should be a lot of teams looking at him as a setup man. Prediction: Padres - two years, $6.5 million

Braden Looper (Mets) - No prediction
Looper, who had his option declined by the Mets, is in the same situation as Farnsworth. He can close, but he’s not the No. 1 reliever in a truly good bullpen. Prediction: Tigers - two years, $7 million

Jose Mesa (Pirates) - No prediction
Mesa is no longer much of a candidate to return to the Pirates after the team declined his option. He may finally be through as a closer, but there’s a chance the Marlins or Reds could bring him in to contend for the job. Prediction: Reds - one year, $2 million

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picasso
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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by picasso »

RC21 wrote:
clevername wrote:why Eddie G? Because even the media at this point recognizes we only sign retreads in hopes of striking gold.
Even if that's the case, they've already got Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores. Throw in that they've brought Springer back and the only real slot that's been vacated since '07 is Percival's. AND they've got a handful of bullpen options that could easily be ready mid-2008 (Worrell and Perez come to mind).
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I've already read in this off-season that LaRussa said we need another lefty reliever, and also last week that T Johnson may be tried in the rotation.

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by Hungary Jack »

Now that we've flogged Eddie G like a red-headed stepmule, is it worth taking one-year fliers on:

Jason Jennings: the recovery rate from torn flexor tendons is pretty reliable. $8M for a year might be an inexpensive option for a diamond in the rough. His careers numbers aren't impressive--until you neutralize for pitching at Coors 50% of the time. Then there is also evidence a declining BB rate while maintaining a respectable K rate.

John Patterson: nerve problems in his elbow have led to his demise after a breakout 2005 season. If he's non-tendered (Bowdens making noises that sound like the Nats still want him), he might be worth Kip Wells-type money.

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by clevername »

Patterson would be tempting, but I've grown tired of "chances".

I still don't get Jason Jennings.

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by Hungary Jack »

clevername wrote:Patterson would be tempting, but I've grown tired of "chances".

I still don't get Jason Jennings.
I understand your reservations about Jennings given his numbers. But keep in mind that he has pitched mostly at Coors, and he pitched mostly hurt in 2007. His BB rate shows signs of coming down from previously horrid levels. His K rate has held. His first comparable on BR is Jeff Suppan.

If he's healthy, $8M for one year could be a steal, and might position you for a market rate extension.

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Re: Rotoworld's Free Agent Pitcher Predictions

Post by Colbert Rasmols »

I keep hoping that we'll trade for a starter who is better than any of the free agents. But if that isn't going to happen, signing Jennings would make sense. Garcia would make sense if he wasn't expected to miss a good chunk of the season. Lieber might be worth a look. Chacon might be worth a look.

I don't think we can avoid "taking a chance" without making a trade or an unwise, long-term investment in someone like Silva.

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