Strauss wrote:Mozeliak, less than four weeks into his new post, says he will not force a move to pacify an impatient fan base, but the Cardinals are willing to deal younger pitching for expensive veteran arms. The Florida Marlins' Dontrelle Willis and the Minnesota Twins' Johan Santana will command interest at Opryland; however, the Cardinals probably will seek less glitzy targets. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers are believed among the mix.
Within what baseball executives describe as a "pitching-for-pitching" climate, less pricey arms such as Anthony Reyes, Tyler Johnson and Brad Thompson could be dangled for a durable, arbitration-eligible presence.
Mozeliak denies being at "the imminent stage" of any potential trade and denied a sense of urgency to make something happen before the meetings adjourn Dec. 6.
"Maybe Christmas would be a fairer barometer," he said.
Many believe the trade pot will reach boil long before then.
I realize what the projections about Reyes say, but we went through this last year. He's a bit of an anomaly when it comes to metrics that typically predict how a pitcher will do. The fact is that Reyes gets absolutely pounded because he has lousy control. His plus changeup makes him look like a pitcher that can be very effective when lady luck is smiling on him and his misfires find harmless spots in the hitting zone. When that luck wears out, and those misfires find the absolute dead center of the strike zone, we see what Reyes is all about.
When you dig a little deeper into Reyes metrics, even there you see that the guy just isn't very good. If we stop at his K rate and WHIP etc... then you get deceived. If we can turn him over for the potential that in my opinion he does not have, then do it.
planet pujolsian wrote:Dontrelle is a glitzy target?
I'm surprised that people are still clinging to his 2005 season. I wish his name would stop being mentioned in the same breath as "Cardinals". Makes me nervous.
jim wrote:When you dig a little deeper into Reyes metrics, even there you see that the guy just isn't very good. If we stop at his K rate and WHIP etc... then you get deceived. If we can turn him over for the potential that in my opinion he does not have, then do it.
I don't think that Reyes defies his peripherals. I think that he got hammered last year with men on base. Partly luck/sample size and partly horrid pitch selection.
Popeye_Card wrote:Also possible issues with command when pitching from the stretch.
True, although it was the other way around in 2006 (though he's not going to sustain the BABIP in that split).
This is what PITCHf/x data is for. I wish those cards from that dude's blog had splits.
EDIT: Looking at minorleaguesplits.com, he had a -.094 OPSa with men on in 2006, and +.133 in 2005. And then +.014 in 2007 in a tiny sample. Meh. About even overall.
Last edited by haltz on November 27 07, 10:33 am, edited 1 time in total.