Colby Rasmus

[Asmodai]

Let's look at Colby Rasmus' 2007 season in comparison to other Double A players over the last ten years - at his age (or thereabouts). Over the last ten years there have been 256 player-seasons (a few repeats) of guys 21 or under to get 200 PAs at the Double A level. We're going be looking at the best 53, the ones who posted an Equivalent Average over .290.

Last season, only Evan Longoria and Justin Upton were better than Rasmus in the age group. Rasmus pure line was very very good - even if it was park aided. In fact, only one of the 256 players hit more home runs in AA than Rasmus, Calvin Pickering. Only five guys had more doubles. Only eleven had more walks. Just six people had more equivalent runs. There's no denying it was a great season for him, historically speaking.

Unfortunately for Cardinal fans he also had the 31 most plate appearances which aid his counting stats. A lot of the 19, 20 and 21 year olds don't stay there all season. They'll either get promoted halfway through the season if they're raking, or they'll get promoted to Double A halfway through the season after raking in Single A. Of course the argument can be made that putting up the same stats in twice the amount of PAs is much more impressive. This is probably true, but of the guys who were better than Rasmus in EqA, only two of them had more PAs. Those two were the aforementioned Calvin Pickering and Jack Cust. Right behind Rasmus a guy had more PAs than him, the immortal Shin-Soo Choo. Perhaps at the AA level not being promoted while raking can be considered bad because of lack of organizational faith in the player - which probably goes hand in hand with lackluster tools. Though, in Rasmus' case this doesn't seem likely. Choo also had pretty good tools. Pickering and Cust are notorious TTT guys, which of course is still hated by most organizations.

After entering the date from 1998-2007 we find that Rasmus' .306 is good for the 24th highest EqA among 17-21 year olds with 200 PAs. The list of guys over .290 is very impressive. At the top we see five impressive names: Nick Johnson, David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Jeremy Hermida and Carlos Beltran. My boy Matt Kemp was sixth. Going a little further down the list, but still ahead of Rasmus we see names such as David Kelton, Dee Brown, Josh Kroeger and Tony Mota. Then again below the cutoff of .290 we still see some talent such as Alfonso Soriano, Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, Prince Fielder and Troy Tulowitzki.

Still a quick glance at the list will show that the higher the better (yea I know this is earth-shattering). So let's look at the 52 guys we selected. Of the 52, the following 16 will be ignore, as they really are too young to be labeled busts and/or haven't gotten adequate ABs at the ML level.

.319 Evan Longoria
.316 Justin Upton
.311 Chris Young
.310 Howie Kendrick
.308 Daric Barton
.306 Colby Rasmus
.302 Andy Marte
.302 Carlos Quentin
.302 Shin-Soo Choo
.300 Billy Butler
.297 Justin Huber
.295 Lastings Milledge
.293 Asdrubal Cabrera
.292 Felix Pie
.291 Adam Jones
.291 Wes Bankston

That's still a who's who list of prospects, eh? The most similar ones to Rasmus are Pie, Jones and Milledge. Of the 32 remaining, there are 15 who I would consider busts at this time. Perhaps you can argue the inclusion of Corey Patterson, but oh do I hate him right now.

.332 Calvin Pickering
.323 Dee Brown
.318 David Kelton
.318 Tony Mota
.313 Josh Kroeger
.303 Alex Escobar
.300 Guillermo Quiroz
.299 Eric Duncan
.298 Peter Bergeron
.295 Corey Patterson
.294 Ramon Castro
.292 Dioner Navarro
.292 Cody Ross
.292 Tim Raines
.290 Chris Haas

Such an inspiring list! So 15 of the 36 can be labeled busts, so that would leave us with 15/36, so about 42% guys who performed as well as him. Please note that the average EqA of these players was .304 in AA and Rasmus' was .306. Most of them also had sparkling minor league track records like Rasmus' up until this point in their careers (not all Quiroz was a waste). A lot of these guys also had elite sets of tools, most notably Escobar, Brown, Patterson and Duncan.

The other 21 guys are pretty good. Five of them have EqAs over .300 for their career. 15 of them have peaked at an EqA over .300. So there's a pretty good chance he peaks as a .300 EqA guy. So here are the 21 guys I didn't label as busts nor too young (youre going to hate my arbitrary definitions).

.355 Nick Johnson
.350 David Wright
.347 Miguel Cabrera
.344 Jeremy Hermida
.335 Carlos Beltran
.335 Matt Kemp
.327 Adrian Beltre
.325 Delmon Young
.322 Hank Blalock
.322 Troy Glaus
.313 Eric Chavez
.312 Dustin Pedroia
.312 Jack Cust
.306 Milton Bradley
.303 Michael Barrett
.301 Joe Mauer
.299 Brandon Phillips
.295 Ryan Zimmerman
.292 J.J. Hardy
.292 Corey Hart
.290 Grady Sizemore

Nick Johnson was absolutely absurd in Double A. He had a .494 OBP! David Wright didn't have gaudy HR totals "only" 10 in 262 PAs, but had a OBP over .450 and 27 doubles. Carlos Beltran barely qualifies with just over 200 PAs, but he did hit .352/.424/.687.

But of course Bryan Anderson was struggling this year in Double A. So let's also list him with the 20 names above and below him.

Ryan Christianson
Edwin Encarnacion
Wily Mo Pena
Juan Piniella
Jorge Sequea
Denard Span
Oswaldo Navarro
Mike Glendenning
Andrew McCutchen
Shane Victorino
Bryan Anderson
Luis Rivas
Jackie Rexrode
Trevor Plouffe
Alex Fernandez
Josh Barfield
Jose Lopez
Hanley Ramirez
Michael Brantley
Jackson Melian
Joe Thurston

Not very encouraging. That Hanley Ramirez guy turned out to be pretty good. Of course there is some good talent even lower than that: Ronny Cedeno, Carl Crawford, Yadier Molina and James Loney.

Now I'll post guys from the same age group in case you're interested:
.289 Justin Morneau
.287 Brandon Wood
.287 Robinson Cano
.286 Andy LaRoche
.285 Prince Fielder
.284 Alfonso Soriano
.283 Troy Tulowitzki
.282 Jhonny Peralta
.276 Jeff Francoeur
.266 Jose Reyes
.258 Rickie Weeks
.258 Jimmy Rollins
.255 Hanley Ramirez
.249 Carl Crawford
.236 Yadier Molina

Now of course there are other prospects coming through the level that aren't 21 (like almost ALL college ones). Over the last ten years two guys have hit .400 in limited time in AA. Durazo in 1999 as a 24 year old: .403/.500/.695 and Jeremy Reed as a 22 year old in 2003: .409/.472/.591. Durazo's the only guy to surpass a .500 OBP. Japanese masher Alex Cabrera slugged .986 in 237 PAs in 2000. Yes .986. He was hitting .382 with 25 singles, 19 doubles, 2 triples and 35 HRs. Oh he walked 25 times. He was 28 at the time. Adam Piatt hit 39 HRs as a 23 year old in 1999, the only other person with significant PAs to slug .700.

So *yawn* my rants over.

[GatewaySnayke]

I have no idea what conclusion you are trying to draw, so I suggest that we discuss the properties of ice.

[Asmodai]

Do I have to have a conclusion? You never do.

[GatewaySnayke]

Do I have to have a conclusion? You never do.

Sure I do. In fact, one of my conclusions is that I lecture on the properties of ice like it's nobody's business. And I also concluded about nine months ago that Yadier Molina was on a hot streak and at the end of it all, he would still suck.

[Maclowery]

Posts like this are why I am happy to be a totally subjective fan. I love you guys and your awesome stats analysis, but, wow, it hurts my head.

On my end. The guy had a good looking swing. He gets hits. He seems to run his routes well in the field. Apparently he has a good arm, though I haven't seen that specifically.

By all means, though, keep crunching those numbers! I enjoy reading em. Brings me back to readin the back of old Topps baseball cards and picking who my top players were at each position, and organizing them on my bedroom floor. Good times.

[Jmodene]

Well, to me, the bottom line is that Colby - by putting up the kind of numbers he did in AA at the age of 20 - is on a track to being a full-fledged superstar, if not a potential Hall of Famer.

The age makes all the difference. If he'd put up the same numbers in AA at age 24, he'd be looking at perhaps a decent ML career, but not nearly the potential he's got now.

I just hope nothing happens to derail the train off the track.

[Phyrkrakr]

So, uh, Rasmus could be Grady Sizemore or he could be Corey Patterson?

Didn't we know this like two and a half years ago?

[Magneto2.0]

So, uh, Rasmus could be Grady Sizemore or he could be Corey Patterson?

Didn't we know this like two and a half years ago?

Pretty much. Though he has more power then Grady Sizemore

[Hipster Doofus]

My hope is TLR doesn't mess this kid up. Tony's dislike of young players is well-known (especially pitchers). Lets hope Rasmus continues to develop and becomes the type of player we see in the lineup for the next 10-12 years.

[The Third Man]

Tony's supposed dislike of young players has been refuted about a thousand times.