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Carpenter and Wainwright are better.

In all honesty, even though Lohse has better numbers than the rest of the staff at this point, he's not clearly a cut above them either. Over the last 28 days, he has a 3.71 ERA in 34 IP. Over the last 365 days, he's at 4.00 in 200.1 IP. Now what would the new rotation be with expected ERA's?

Carpenter: 4.00
Wainwright: 3.75
Looper: 4.50
Pineiro: 4.50
Wellemeyer: 4.50

So let's say that the guy that will be in the rotation is 0.50 worse than Lohse over the next 10 starts, and we'll say 70 IP. That's a difference of 4 ER. How many wins does that affect? 1? 2? 4? How many games would the haul from a Lohse trade affect? It depends. Is it bullpen help for this year? That could be a win or two. Is it a prospect that could help for the next 6 years? That could affect dozens of wins.

only the cards would be dumb enough to buy low and sell high.

i look at lohse and see a pitcher having a career year and pitching being a very scare commodity
my reaction is meh
it is just a smart business plan to be shopping him- i hope they are shopping ludwick, ankiel and anyone not names pujols, carp, wainwright-- the issue is what are they going to get.

Hmm. Carpenter has thrown 4 innings in two years. And I'm as optimistic as the next guy, but if he threw those 4 innings against a better lineup, he would have been punished.

Wainwright's rehab start was pushed back.

I'm not saying Lohse is great, or even above-average. But right now, he is the best starting pitcher the Cards are running out there.

If they could indeed get a good return on him, I'm all for it. It's worth a shot, at the very least.

I would sort of have to feel for Lohse if something like this happens, though. Having a great season after coming in with very low expectations, playing for a contending team in an awesome baseball city - I certainly wouldn't want to leave. I know it's a business, and I realize this is a perfect deal opportunity, but for me, the thought of finding your groove only to be quickly removed from the environment that made you successful is pretty sucky. Like I said, I completely understand the rationale behind a (possible) move like this one, but this is just me looking at it from a different angle.

We'll see what happens.

How do you know the results if Carpenter pitched against a different lineup. I don't deal with ifs, I deal with facts. Facts are Carpenter is better than Lohse. Wainwright is better than Lohse. By a wide margin.

If you had a gun to your head, life on the line game, who would you start Lohse or Carpenter? If you say Lohse, than I'd say you're putting way too much stock into a decent first half, and ignoring history.

Lohse is barely better than Wellemeyer, Looper and Pinerio as Popeye exhibited. I don't even think the gap between Lohse and arcia is really anything significant. You're blinded by his basic ERA being decent, and his win-loss record. None of peripherals suggest superiority to the majority of our rotation.


Ryan Ludwick should be traded too, if they can get something in return.

These statements suggest you think the Cards have no chance at competing this year.

If they're healthy and performing at peak level, Carpenter and Wainwright are better than Lohse. Right this minute? No. One is on the DL and the other has pitched nine innings since October of 2006.

How's these for facts:

Carpenter: 4 ip in his only game in almost 2 years
Wainwright: Rehab shows signs of delay. In this organization, that is almost never good.


Fact: Neither pitcher can be relied upon to provide a "better" performance than any of our starting pitchers for the remainder of this season.

If the Cards trade Lohse, and intend to compete for a playoff spot this year, he has to be replaced. The best shot the Cards have this year is to keep Lohse unless they pull off a trade for Burnett (or similar) pitcher.

I tend to agree with you on Ludwick. We have other options in the outfield.

I'm also willing to trade Lohse. The chances of signing him are nil, and he's clearly having a career year. His value will never be higher.

If there's a good haul to be had, definitely do it.

I really don't want them to deal Lohse. I want this 08 team to have a chance as is (if they can add a bullpen arm and a bat for minimum minor league talent, go for it)

I understand if some team offers the world for Lohse, you can't pass it up.

IMO Lohse is a big part of this team's chemistry and mojo (not to mention his 10 wins) I know it was just spring training, but before they got Lohse the Cards were getting their head kicked in every day, then after the signing they went on a tear that extended into the regular season.