2010 Payroll Thread

Faceman · **Posted:** November 10 09, 3:15 pm

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

TimeForGuinness · **Joined:** April 18 06, 7:38 pm **Posts:** 15252

Fat Strat wrote:

TimeForGuinness wrote:

Fat, I know this has nothing to do with the payroll, but can you switch Boggs and Garcia around? It would help lower my blood pressure. Thanks.

I will switch them when Duncan indicates that Garcia has a chance to make the roster as a SP out of ST. From him most recent comments (as far as I've read), that doesn't seem to be the case. I'm with you, though. I think that Garcia wins the job and that Boggs will play a McClellanian-esque role in the pen for the foreseeable future.

In the meantime, I recommend carrying a small bottle of aspirin around just in case you need it.

Crap...I might need a large bottle of aspirin.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 · **Posted:** November 10 09, 3:36 pm

Faceman wrote:

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

A temporary bottom was hit in November....about the time a couple big banks like Bear Stearn (?) went belly up that corresponded nicely with about the time of year to start thinking about season tickets. Then it hit the low in what March..... in plenty of time for people to avoid planning road trips to see the Cardinals. Now the stock market is up about 50% from the low and the economy seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. Pretty tough to imagine the economy preventing attendance in 2010 more so than it did in 2009....just my .02

PujolJunkie · **Posted:** November 10 09, 3:42 pm

Extremely informative post. Awesome, Strat. Thank you.

Faceman · **Posted:** November 10 09, 4:27 pm

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

A temporary bottom was hit in November....about the time a couple big banks like Bear Stearn (?) went belly up that corresponded nicely with about the time of year to start thinking about season tickets. Then it hit the low in what March..... in plenty of time for people to avoid planning road trips to see the Cardinals. Now the stock market is up about 50% from the low and the economy seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. Pretty tough to imagine the economy preventing attendance in 2010 more so than it did in 2009....just my .02

While the low (and the road trips) may have happened in March, I'm wondering how many of the 3.3M (or whatever) tickets were already sold by then. Once they are sold, people are going to go as the tickets will get moved under face value. That's the only reason I feel like we might not have seen the low in last year's attendance number.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 · **Posted:** November 10 09, 5:24 pm

Faceman wrote:

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

A temporary bottom was hit in November....about the time a couple big banks like Bear Stearn (?) went belly up that corresponded nicely with about the time of year to start thinking about season tickets. Then it hit the low in what March..... in plenty of time for people to avoid planning road trips to see the Cardinals. Now the stock market is up about 50% from the low and the economy seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. Pretty tough to imagine the economy preventing attendance in 2010 more so than it did in 2009....just my .02

While the low (and the road trips) may have happened in March, I'm wondering how many of the 3.3M (or whatever) tickets were already sold by then. Once they are sold, people are going to go as the tickets will get moved under face value. That's the only reason I feel like we might not have seen the low in last year's attendance number.

I guess I don't understand what you're saying. [expletive] hit the fan last November and went downhill for the most part until March....It's now back on the upswing..... I guess I just don't get your logic. Regardless of when you say the tickets are bought, it's highly likely that 2010 will bring better economic times than 2009....and the 2009/2010 offseason will bring better economic times than the 2008/2009 offseason.

Faceman · **Posted:** November 10 09, 6:19 pm

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

A temporary bottom was hit in November....about the time a couple big banks like Bear Stearn (?) went belly up that corresponded nicely with about the time of year to start thinking about season tickets. Then it hit the low in what March..... in plenty of time for people to avoid planning road trips to see the Cardinals. Now the stock market is up about 50% from the low and the economy seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. Pretty tough to imagine the economy preventing attendance in 2010 more so than it did in 2009....just my .02

While the low (and the road trips) may have happened in March, I'm wondering how many of the 3.3M (or whatever) tickets were already sold by then. Once they are sold, people are going to go as the tickets will get moved under face value. That's the only reason I feel like we might not have seen the low in last year's attendance number.

I guess I don't understand what you're saying. [expletive] hit the fan last November and went downhill for the most part until March....It's now back on the upswing..... I guess I just don't get your logic. Regardless of when you say the tickets are bought, it's highly likely that 2010 will bring better economic times than 2009....and the 2009/2010 offseason will bring better economic times than the 2008/2009 offseason.

Just because the market is up since March, doesn't mean jobs, salaries are. The question is whether consumers are hurting more now or one year ago. Just because the crap hit the fan last November, that doesn't mean consumers had felt it yet. Many consumers won't actually start to slow purchases (baseball tickets) until they actually lose the job, or take the pay cut (which in many areas didn't happen until last spring / summer).

I'm saying that most of the tickets to 2009 baseball may have been bought before the consumers felt the pinch. Don't season tickets run in December and January? It would be interesting to see how many tickets were sold, by month, for last year vs how the 2010 season sells.

Soupsgrill · **Posted:** November 10 09, 7:53 pm

For the St. Louis Cardinals, you have to put a deposit of $100 per seat down by October 2009. The remaining balance will be due at the beginning of February 2010

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 · **Posted:** November 11 09, 8:26 am

Faceman wrote:

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

A temporary bottom was hit in November....about the time a couple big banks like Bear Stearn (?) went belly up that corresponded nicely with about the time of year to start thinking about season tickets. Then it hit the low in what March..... in plenty of time for people to avoid planning road trips to see the Cardinals. Now the stock market is up about 50% from the low and the economy seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. Pretty tough to imagine the economy preventing attendance in 2010 more so than it did in 2009....just my .02

While the low (and the road trips) may have happened in March, I'm wondering how many of the 3.3M (or whatever) tickets were already sold by then. Once they are sold, people are going to go as the tickets will get moved under face value. That's the only reason I feel like we might not have seen the low in last year's attendance number.

I guess I don't understand what you're saying. [expletive] hit the fan last November and went downhill for the most part until March....It's now back on the upswing..... I guess I just don't get your logic. Regardless of when you say the tickets are bought, it's highly likely that 2010 will bring better economic times than 2009....and the 2009/2010 offseason will bring better economic times than the 2008/2009 offseason.

Just because the market is up since March, doesn't mean jobs, salaries are. The question is whether consumers are hurting more now or one year ago. Just because the crap hit the fan last November, that doesn't mean consumers had felt it yet. Many consumers won't actually start to slow purchases (baseball tickets) until they actually lose the job, or take the pay cut (which in many areas didn't happen until last spring / summer).

I'm saying that most of the tickets to 2009 baseball may have been bought before the consumers felt the pinch. Don't season tickets run in December and January? It would be interesting to see how many tickets were sold, by month, for last year vs how the 2010 season sells.

Well, we'll see. There's really no point in arguing it since will know the answer by this time next year. I hope you're wrong though.

Faceman · **Posted:** November 11 09, 10:05 am

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:

Faceman wrote:

Fantastic, thanks Fat Strat.

One thing I wonder about is if '09 was the worst. What I mean is, many of the tickets were sold for '09 before the absolute bottom. Once those tickets are sold, they will get used (people will either attend or sell them at a loss).

I'm wondering if December and January sales this coming year will be lower than last year, driving attendance down next year.

A temporary bottom was hit in November....about the time a couple big banks like Bear Stearn (?) went belly up that corresponded nicely with about the time of year to start thinking about season tickets. Then it hit the low in what March..... in plenty of time for people to avoid planning road trips to see the Cardinals. Now the stock market is up about 50% from the low and the economy seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. Pretty tough to imagine the economy preventing attendance in 2010 more so than it did in 2009....just my .02

While the low (and the road trips) may have happened in March, I'm wondering how many of the 3.3M (or whatever) tickets were already sold by then. Once they are sold, people are going to go as the tickets will get moved under face value. That's the only reason I feel like we might not have seen the low in last year's attendance number.

I guess I don't understand what you're saying. [expletive] hit the fan last November and went downhill for the most part until March....It's now back on the upswing..... I guess I just don't get your logic. Regardless of when you say the tickets are bought, it's highly likely that 2010 will bring better economic times than 2009....and the 2009/2010 offseason will bring better economic times than the 2008/2009 offseason.

Just because the market is up since March, doesn't mean jobs, salaries are. The question is whether consumers are hurting more now or one year ago. Just because the crap hit the fan last November, that doesn't mean consumers had felt it yet. Many consumers won't actually start to slow purchases (baseball tickets) until they actually lose the job, or take the pay cut (which in many areas didn't happen until last spring / summer).

I'm saying that most of the tickets to 2009 baseball may have been bought before the consumers felt the pinch. Don't season tickets run in December and January? It would be interesting to see how many tickets were sold, by month, for last year vs how the 2010 season sells.

Well, we'll see. There's really no point in arguing it since will know the answer by this time next year. I hope you're wrong though.

Yeah, I'm not trying to argue. It was only a question. I have a hard time accepting that we can look at the stock market and tell exactly when the consumers (fans) felt the rock bottom. I hope we are past the absolute worst, and I think we are. But I have no reason to believe we will recover quickly. I know I'm not buying more tickets this year than last, and I am more fortunate than many.

Hopefully, I'm overly concerned - I agree with you.

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2010 Payroll Thread

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