Franklin's 10

[MrSaigon]

I know geek numerologists (used affectionately) usually project for bullpen guys under apologetic pretenses. Franklin may be one of the more difficult Cardinals to prognosticate on.

But what's your best guess?

How long do you think his leash will be?

[Hungary Jack]

I have no basis for this other than a contrarian view after his good 2009, but I think this year is pretty ugly for him.

[Socnorb11]

I have no basis for this other than a contrarian view after his good 2009, but I think this year is pretty ugly for him.

Ryan Franklin or Leroy?


I actually tend to agree with you. It just doesn't feel right.

[heyzeus]

3.60 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 35 saves.

[skmsw]

Off the top of my head I have mixed feelings.

On the one hand, but for the way the ball bounces, most major league pitchers can convert 80% of their save opportunities. So Franklin does not need to pitch nearly as well as he did for a long stretch of 2009 in order to be an average major league closer. He can look pretty ugly and back into 32 saves and 5 to 8 blown saves like the closers for lots of other teams.

On the other hand, regression to the mean, like payback, can be a [expletive deleted].

I'll just go on the record with this: Franklin's dominant portion of 2009 was not the result of blossoming in the role, not the result of him having an abundance of The Closer Mentality, was not the result of reinventing himself with a new or improved pitch. It was the result of pitching extremely well (plus catching a few bounces) for a stretch of 30 or so innings. It happens, and more should not be read into it than there is. HOWEVER, as noted above, most pitchers good enough to stick to a major league roster are good enough to convert 80-85% of their save opps, so it would not surprise me to see Ryan end up with 30 saves while looking horrid at times and posting an overall unattractive ERA (I don't mean Brad Lidge in 2009 or anything -- 32 saves, ERA over 7 -- but you get the idea).

[Jocephus]

definitely gonna be some regression

[go birds]

Franklin is not a dominant closer. I don't care what the numbers say or how many saves he had last year.

The playoffs proved this.

Sure Holliday is mostly to blame for that foible, but dominant closers don't get rattled and Franklin got rattled.

He's a great set-up man though.

[Leroy]

I just learned a new word.

[JL21]

Over the last four years:

Code: Select all

Sim Player               From  To Yrs  W   L   WL%   ERA    G   GS  GF  CG SHO  SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
      Ryan Franklin       2006-2009  4  20  20  .500  3.33  271   0 120   0   0  56  297.0  291  117  110  33   98  182 131

Three years:

Code: Select all

Sim Player               From  To Yrs  W   L   WL%   ERA    G   GS  GF  CG SHO  SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  ERA+
+---+--------------------+---------+--+---+---+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+
      Ryan Franklin       2007-2009  3  14  13  .519  2.91  205   0 101   0   0  56  219.7  205   75   71  20   65  139 146

Yes, his 2009 was really fluky in a very positive way. And yes, a collapse and regression should be expected (nobody could sustain the LD% + BABIP combo that he had last year). But, last year is but one data point over several years of really solid production in the 'pen (I am aware of the sample size issues). Combine this with the defensive support of potential Gold Glovers at SS, in CF, and at C and 1B, and you have to think that said regression will at least have a cushion.

Put me down for a 3.50 ERA and a very vanilla/average job closing out games. "Acceptable", as it were.

[cardsfansince82]

As with every other Cardinal, I am rooting for him to fail.