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Say you are losing by 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th and the lead off man gets on base. Is it better if the second batter hits a home run or a base hit? Which scenario leads to winning the game more often?

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Whatever scenario leads to you eventually winning, would be the winning scenario.

Isn't there a win-probability chart or calculator out there somewhere?

If someone has access to it, check and see what the percentages are on those three situations:

1. none out, one on, down by 3 (before the second batter bats)
2. none out, two on, down by 3 (if the second batter hits a single)
3. none out, none on, down by 1 (if the second batter hits a home run)

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"You have to be concerned about the future, but you also have to be more concerned about the present. If you have to give up two or three young kids - who may not be able to play for several years - to get help for your team now, you have to do it." - Bing Devine, 1999

"They call baseball a game because it's too screwed up to be a business." - Jim Bouton, 1971.

"Big deal. Anyone can win games when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Curt Flood to Bob Gibson, circa 1968

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With 2 on losing by 3 the win prob is .1379, losing by one with bases empty the win prob is .1398.

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I don't have to follow game threads any more, I will just use the Win Probability Inquirer.

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Shannon's call of Garcia's triple was cracking my ass up on the way home. I wish I could go back and listen again.

He's humming and whistling the tune to "Blister in the Sun" and then does his patented chuckle then smoothly segues into at least a 5X "Get up Baby!" and then "AWWWWWWWWW" and I thought it was caught and then he semi dejectedly mentions Garcia has a triple.

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