Berkman might be heading to the DL

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Fat Strat
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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

Post by Fat Strat »

I don't think you let Berkman walk at all, you remember when Chris Duncan tore up the league for two seasons? Remember when Ryan Ludwick hit 30 home runs? Even with his aches, Berkman's a safer bet than Craig or Adams and if you can get him back for another 1 year 12M type deal you do it, but I also don't think I'd go two years unless it was a big discount.
I don't disagree with your sentiment to wait and see and that it's often better to stick with veterans rather than young players, but Craig is no Chris Duncan. Duncan had a pretty long minor league history of mediocrity that suggested he wouldn't last long if he made it to the majors.

Ludwick is a more interesting story because he arrived so late. He hit during his prime years and then stopped -- age 31. Plus, if you throw out his crazy 151 OPS+ season, he was essentially a 105 ops+ hitter with the Cards. No surprise that that kind of guy drops from 104 to 90'ish and below when he crosses 30.

Craig profiled as exactly what he's become -- a power hitter and defensive versatility. He's got staying power and he's pretty close to a known quantity at this point. It will almost certainly be a better use of our resources next year to let a 37 year old Berkman walk and plug Craig or Adams in for him. We'd be better served spending some of our money on a 2b'man and on the rotation... Maybe even let Miller apprentice in the bullpen next year.

If Berkman wants to sign a smaller contract and plan to start 100 games next year splitting time with Craig, then I would be all for it (assuming he plays this season out as we expect). But, i woudn't pay him another $12M to keep Craig on the bench. Odds are high that Craig will outproduce him this season.

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vinsanity
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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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Fat Strat wrote:I don't disagree with your sentiment to wait and see and that it's often better to stick with veterans rather than young players, but Craig is no Chris Duncan. Duncan had a pretty long minor league history of mediocrity that suggested he wouldn't last long if he made it to the majors.

We'd be better served spending some of our money on a 2b'man and on the rotation... Maybe even let Miller apprentice in the bullpen next year. If Berkman wants to sign a smaller contract and plan to start 100 games next year splitting time with Craig, then I would be all for it (assuming he plays this season out as we expect).
You're right, I wasn't really trying to make an apples to apples comparison there, just tossing out that 120 games for some guys isn't something you wanna bet the farm on. Maybe Colby Rasmus' .860 season would be a better example? Pedro Alvarez' .900 OPS at AAA at 23 to Adams? I don't think Craig is going to turn in to a pumpkin, but I also don't think you have a hard time finding time for him between Berkman, Jay and Beltran.

But Adams is a question mark and I just don't see the FA or trade-n-sign targets at 2B. Infante? Ellis? Hill?

I think letting Miller or Lynn stick in the pen and looking at a SP. But do you want to commit to a Cole Hamels or Colby Lewis as an actual upgrade? Someone like Guthrie would be interesting, but I think I'd almost prefer Lohse. Shawn Marcum is an interesting name, too. I guess those interesting names to me seem like big money-multi-year guys. Here's the list, *'s for options.
[SHOW]
Scott Baker *
Joe Blanton
Matt Cain
Fausto Carmona *
Kevin Correia
Jorge De La Rosa *
R.A. Dickey *
Scott Feldman *
Gavin Floyd *
Zack Greinke
Jeremy Guthrie
Cole Hamels
Dan Haren *
Tim Hudson *
Colby Lewis
Francisco Liriano
Kyle Lohse
Derek Lowe
Shaun Marcum
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Brandon McCarthy
Brett Myers *
Carl Pavano
Jake Peavy *
Anibal Sanchez
Jonathan Sanchez
Ervin Santana *
Joe Saunders
James Shields *
Jake Westbrook *
Randy Wolf *
Carlos Zambrano *
I completely agree that Berkman is a luxury at this point and I wouldn't mind seeing them spend the money elsewhere, but I don't know where. I think if they don't sign Berk, it'll just be a year where payroll stays under budget.

Fat Strat
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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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I think if they don't sign Berk, it'll just be a year where payroll stays under budget.
Well, if the farm continues to produce players like it has then we'll have a lot of years under budget. We'll stop counting payroll because it won't matter. Bill DeWitt would be able to post pictures on Facebook of him swimming in a pool full of dollar bills and we would cheer him on... If Lynn really is a #2 and Miller turns into a Lohse replacement right away and Adams hits Berkman back to the Astros and Ryan Jackson pushes Furcal out and Wong becomes our best 2b'man since Vina.... and... and... and...

We would be building a crazy cheap dynasty team. But, the odds of that stuff happening is almost nill, even though all those players are performing at high levels in the high minors right now. We'll find ways to spend money every year.


There were a lot of interesting names on that list. Hudson would be an interesting guy to have to go along with our youngsters.

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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Fat Strat wrote:We would be building a crazy cheap dynasty team. But, the odds of that stuff happening is almost nill, even though all those players are performing at high levels in the high minors right now. We'll find ways to spend money every year.
RIght, I don't expect it either. Was just hoping someone had a novel idea to kick around. I think Hudson would be interesting, are the Braves backed up in the minors with SP and gonna decline the option?

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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Give me Hamels if we have the cash. Not many people realize he got married in Springfield and has a home near Branson. His wife is from this area and he's awesome.

It'd take something like 6/120 to sign him, but I'd pony up the cash with guys like Miller/Wong/Adams/Craig/Lynn/Sanchez/Tavares ready to give us some payroll flexibility.

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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phins wrote:Give me Hamels if we have the cash. Not many people realize he got married in Springfield and has a home near Branson. His wife is from this area and he's awesome.

It'd take something like 6/120 to sign him, but I'd pony up the cash with guys like Miller/Wong/Adams/Craig/Lynn/Sanchez/Tavares ready to give us some payroll flexibility.
Absolutely. It would also give us another year to decide what we're going to do with Wainwright and Lynn.

Lynn has really put a wrench in my plans for next offseason -- in a positive way. I wanted Miller to be the #5 guy and then use our excess cash on a quality 2b'man and a quality SP.

Rotation:
1. Wainwright
2. Carpenter
3. FA SP
4. Garcia
5. Miller

To me, it looks like Lynn might be a waste of talent in the bullpen. But, is he really worth keeping in the rotation instead of spending money on someone like Hamels (or whoever)? So, you either spend money to sign someone and then make Miller wait another year. Or you go with a cheaper rotation that might not be as strong -- with Lynn and Miller in the #4-#5 spots.

We'll just have to see how Lynn finishes out the season, obviously, but right now I'm thinking our best option for 2013 is to let Miller apprentice in the pen (and support in the rotation for injuries), give Lynn the #5 spot, and sign a FA who will eventually take Carpenter's spot as the undisputed #2. Hamels would be perfect for that. I would keep Wainwright... how could you let him go? And Miller goes into the rotation full-time in '14 when Carpenter retires (or moves to the pen to start a 10 year run through his 40's as the closer).

We really have the benefit of available money and depth. It's creating playing time issues, but those are great problems to have.
Last edited by Fat Strat on May 8 12, 8:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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I wouldn't count on Carpenter for 2013. Hell, I'm not counting on him for 2012.

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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heyzeus wrote:I wouldn't count on Carpenter for 2013. Hell, I'm not counting on him for 2012.
Yea, I know he's much more valuable as a starter, but if it'll extend his career and keep him healthy, I'd be ok with moving Carp to the pen.

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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cards2468 wrote:
heyzeus wrote:I wouldn't count on Carpenter for 2013. Hell, I'm not counting on him for 2012.
Yea, I know he's much more valuable as a starter, but if it'll extend his career and keep him healthy, I'd be ok with moving Carp to the pen.
I think that'd be interesting. Rotation of
Waino/Hamels/Garcia/Lynn/Miller with Carp taking the reliever/spot starter role in the pen?

The only question is then, would Mo? And are we comfortable enough in the lineup to do Hamels at at $20M per? That'd be Holliday/Hamels/Garcia/Molina for $60M after next year.

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Re: Berkman might be heading to the DL

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phins wrote:Give me Hamels if we have the cash. Not many people realize he got married in Springfield and has a home near Branson. His wife is from this area and he's awesome.

It'd take something like 6/120 to sign him, but I'd pony up the cash with guys like Miller/Wong/Adams/Craig/Lynn/Sanchez/Tavares ready to give us some payroll flexibility.
No thanks. He'd basically have to stay completely healthy for 6 years without any decline in stuff to earn that contract. Somebody probably will give him a deal like that, but the better front offices aren't going to give him that many years without some allowance for the likelihood of injury.

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