GatewayRedbirds.com

Yup, certain things affect BABIP. Ichiro has a career BABIP of .350 because he legs out IF singles and more likely to hit a 'bloop' single over the IF but not a scorching liner to the OF. Or someone like Mark Reynolds or Adam Dunn whose BABIP is quite a bit higher than their average cause they K so much.

Jay's BA usually runs about 50 points lower than his BABIP, but right now it's 8 and his infield hit % is up a bit. It's possible he's the type of hitter who will maintain a BABIP of .330, but he's not the type of hitter who could maintain a .415 BABIP. He'll likely regress closer to a .350 average pretty quick, but after more than a season and a half, there's not a whole lotta reason to think his BABIP won't normalize around .330-.340 just cause of how he hits.

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Yet many can do it without thinking - Stan being one of them.

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Jay's going to play center field every day unless he gets hurt.

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"This is a heavyweight bout indeed."--John Rooney, Oct. 27, 2011

He's a very nice player to have around, while cost controlled. Not when you have to pay him big money.

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JUGGERMOTTE!!!!



#? Some Guy #6 Stan the Man #7 Holliday

BABIP is a skill. Those are the top BABIPs of all time, and it's a who's who of great hitters and Hall of Famers. I'm saying that it's worth wondering if Freese and Jay might regress to the mean a little before ending up as skillful as the top ten of everyone who has ever played the game.

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abstract backpack vegan skateboards, etc

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Yeah, he's got the lock on CF because he's the only one on the roster who can still play it well. Offensively, the best 3 OF's we could trot out there would be Holliday, Beltran, Craig--but that's akin to playing an all-doubles defense.

This might make the most sense out of anything I've ever read on any topic ever.
And thanks for the numbers. That lines up with the eye-test.

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"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe."

I can't remember who I heard it from, but it was someone pretty good at playing baseball... they said "Batters are hit producers, not hit directors."

But the ability to try to hit to certain fields is definitely a skill that is preached early on. I was watching highlights from the Nats I think and the infield was playing Werth (I think) with a really dramatic pull-shift. They showed 2 of his abs in a row and you could tell he was just trying to guide the ball in the hole between 1st and 2nd. Not hit hard at all but got singles both times, leading off an inning, trying to get on base.

So that's an example of what is being talked about with BABIP. I used to think that you'd be able to tell how much of a low BABIP was luck by only factoring LD%. Cause if all a guy does is hit weak little 6-3 grounders, he'll have a low BABIP but you can't say the usual "he's just been unlucky!" No, he's been getting beat.
On the flip side, if a guy has a knack for putting the ball in the general area he wants to, he'll have a higher BABIP, but you couldn't say "he's been lucky!" Well, maybe a little, but he's doing what he's trying.

It's almost like there needs to be a "success at doing what you're trying to do" stat. Hitting the ball to the right side to move a guy over. Hitting a flyball to the outfield for a sac fly. Hitting a line drive with no on or a guy on 2nd with 2 outs. Pushing a groundball to a vacated spot due to an infield shift. Does something like that exist?

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"If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe."

I doubt such a stat exists, although perhaps you could extrapolate it by noting when a player hits the ball to an area where statistics show he doesn't usually hit it to, but that's definitive.

But there are ballplayers who do manage to cultivate an ability to control the bat sufficiently to hit the ball where they ain't, as the old Willie Keeler quote goes. Wasn't Rod Carew said to be a master of that? IIRC, Carew had a number of different batting stances, employing multiple stances even during a single game, in order to do this. And on a much, much, MUCH lower level, I can remember shifting my stance in an office softball game so I could hit the ball to right field instead of left, mainly because I wanted to see my boss have to chase after it.

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"You have to be concerned about the future, but you also have to be more concerned about the present. If you have to give up two or three young kids - who may not be able to play for several years - to get help for your team now, you have to do it." - Bing Devine, 1999

"They call baseball a game because it's too screwed up to be a business." - Jim Bouton, 1971.

"Big deal. Anyone can win games when the other team doesn't score any runs." - Curt Flood to Bob Gibson, circa 1968