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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 12:07 pm 
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I am very concerned about his BABIP on overcast, odd days against pitchers with facial hair.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 2:22 pm 
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How does he compare to the 15 other NL starting CF'ers? Who's he slightly better than and slightly worse than?

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 2:29 pm 
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TAZ wrote:
How does he compare to the 15 other NL starting CF'ers? Who's he slightly better than and slightly worse than?


Better than humping a cantaloupe. Not as good as marrying Halle Berry.

So far Jay has 1.1 WAR (fangraphs) on the year, despite missing almost a week. That's tied for 8th among all MLB outfielders, roughly on par with the adam jones/andre ethier tier. 6th among CF. So, pretty damned good.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 2:45 pm 
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I've grown to like him more and more. I didn't have a very high expectation from him in any regard, but he's exceeded what I thought he could already. I love having him in the lineup, and I'm not sure what I'd do once everyone is healthy.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 3:45 pm 
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jim wrote:
He gets precisely the appreciation he deserves from me. I think he's a solid player, nothing more nothing less. He's not a star, never going to be a star, but a player that gets every ounce of ability out of his talents through smart play and solid fundamentals. He has to be a coaches dream, a consistent player that just shows up every day and gives the same effort every day. I have zero qualms about Jon Jay as our CF. I've pretty much been saying this since day 1.



I will say, you've always been really fair to Jay.

I'm a bigger fan than most. I think he can compete for a batting title.


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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 3:59 pm 
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haltz wrote:
I don't think he's a difference-maker, but for now he's a guy who helps you afford players that are and he's fine in an everyday role.

Part of the reason that people and projection systems are skeptical of his production, is that the list of career BABIPs over .350 is short and full of Hall of Famers. Same goes for Freese.

Ty Cobb .379
David Freese .368
Rogers Hornsby .366
Derek Jeter .361
Rod Carew .358
Ichiro Suzuki .357
Miguel Cabrera .354
Harry Heilmann .351
Joe Jackson .351
Tris Speaker .350
Jon Jay .350

But that's not to say that they can't still be good players if less hits start to fall.

BABIP is an interesting thing, I don't know how much it has to do with luck, and the old saying "hitting them where they ain't." Putting a ball in the gap is a skill. Not hitting can-o-corn fly balls is a skill; not grounding out feebly to short is a skill....and so on.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 4:11 pm 
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That's an interesting statement wart. I have always wondered how much control batters have over their ability to place a ball when they hit it.

For example, in the 10th inning of Game 6, did Berkman see how dep the outfield was and then handle the pitch well enough to keep it from going too deep; would have have been able to drive it into a gap had the OF been playing regularly; or did he simply try to hit the ball as hard as he could, that's all he could do, and we're all lucky that the Rangers had the 'no doubles' OF alignment?

In comparison, obviously Jay was lucky to get a little bloop land earlier that inning, and he had no control over that.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 4:41 pm 
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wart57 wrote:
BABIP is an interesting thing, I don't know how much it has to do with luck, and the old saying "hitting them where they ain't." Putting a ball in the gap is a skill. Not hitting can-o-corn fly balls is a skill; not grounding out feebly to short is a skill....and so on.


They say on average BABIP ends up around .300 when you average it for all players. But each player has their own for their career. It probably isn't realistic that Jay's BABIP will stay at .350, but that doesn't mean it will regress all the way back to .300 or below either. I think that's kind of what some people are saying in this thread.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 4:54 pm 
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I think most big leaguers would tell you that the idea of guiding a 92 MPH fastball on the low outside corner into a 15 degree wedge no man's land between first and second base is an extraordinarily rare skill to possess even at that level.

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 Post subject: Re: Jon Jay
PostPosted: May 2 12, 5:08 pm 
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Reminds me of when they asked Musial how he handled the spitball and he said, "I try to hit it on the dry side."

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