I'm not advocating that, so... I guess we're in agreement? I'm not sure where that notion is coming from.MrCrowesGarden wrote:I agree bullpens are volatile as all get out. That's why I think the idea of upgrading there and doing little to nothing else in 2018 is foolish.
This is slowly becoming a thing and it's starting to bug me.MrCrowesGarden wrote: I think it's fair to say there's some middle ground for luck vs. evaluation... the line may not be exactly in the middle, and I don't know exactly where it is, but it's there. Pham is the prime example for me. The organization could believe he's a good player, but i don't believe they knew he'd be All-Star quality. He wouldn't have started in AAA if that was the case.
Pham was terrible in spring training, and he was coming off of a really rough 2016. He still had the eye adjustment stuff that he was dealing with (and probably always will). Martinez was OPSing .900 for most of the first month- they had a reasonable 4th OFer that they could ride until he faltered. There's the Adams thing, which I (personally) believe was a terrible decision by Matheny and was never intended to happen by the FO. I'm definitely not going to defend Adams in the OF, but given some of the statements coming out of the FO at the time, I don't think they'd defend it, either. They seemed pretty clearly pissed.
It made some sense for Pham to start in AAA, even with his tools- he's always had exemplary skills but injuries and the eye thing have always been an issue. And because of his track record, he had something to prove, which he hadn't done in spring training.
Honestly, I don't think anyone on the face of the earth thought Pham would be All-Star quality, so I have a pretty hard time knocking the organization for that. And no, I don't think their evaluations told them he'd be a 5-WAR player or even close. I'm sure they saw that he could be useful and I'm sure they saw that he had loads of potential.
As for "all of this credit" for talent evaluation, that's not exactly my point. The credit is in the process- trusting your development people to get talent ready to play and contribute. Trusting that your scouts will provide the development people with players who can graduate to MLB. And most importantly, recognizing that youngsters are already a crapshoot so it's better to have more of them around if any of them fail. Or in other words, acknowledging that it's going to require some luck so it's best to have options. The results speak for themselves. Here's where the Cardinals have ranked in WAR from rookie players since 2010:
2010: 10th
2011: 11th
2012: 4th
2013: 2nd
2014: 21st
2015: 10th
2016: 3rd
2017: 3rd
Ranking for the full run (2010-2017): 1st
The organization has its flaws, but their awareness of their own talent that they have on hand- and a reasonably full range of outcomes for that talent- is not one of them. You can call it luck if you want except it routinely happens, year in and year out.