2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

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danh35
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by danh35 »

docellis wrote:
danh35 wrote:Exactly, Kershaw is beatable. Here are his numbers against the Cards since 2012, including the 2013 post season: 3-5 4.18 ERA 1.25 WHIP in 51.2 innings.
What are AW's #'s against LA?
1-3 2.54 ERA 1.01 WHIP in 35.1 innings.

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pioneer98
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by pioneer98 »

Secret Weapon wrote:Now I'm just playing devil's advocate, as you pretty much have to throw Wainwright first. But I think if you do that then you are the underdog for the first 2 games, but I think if you pitched him second, the Cardinals would be the favorite in the second game.

I'd put the win% at something like this for the first 2 games:

Waino vs Kershaw: 35%
Lynn vs Greinke: 40%

Lynn vs Kershaw: 20%
Waino vs Greinke: 65%

Which scenario would be better?
I'm not saying the percentages are wrong, but shouldn't they add up to the same number?

Right now you are saying Waino vs Kershaw plus Lynn vs Greinke is 35% + 40% = 75%
I'd expect Lynn vs Kershaw plus Waino vs Greinke to also add up to 75%, just in a different way. I wouldn't expect them to add up to 85% all the sudden. They are all the same pitchers, facing the same hitters.

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Felix The Cat
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by Felix The Cat »

ZigZagCardsFan wrote:
Jmodene wrote:
ZigZagCardsFan wrote:
Felix The Cat wrote:
Secret Weapon wrote:Now I'm just playing devil's advocate, as you pretty much have to throw Wainwright first. But I think if you do that then you are the underdog for the first 2 games, but I think if you pitched him second, the Cardinals would be the favorite in the second game.

I'd put the win% at something like this for the first 2 games:

Waino vs Kershaw: 35%
Lynn vs Greinke: 40%

Lynn vs Kershaw: 20%
Waino vs Greinke: 65%

Which scenario would be better?
You're severely overrating Kershaw and underrating Grienke in these hypothetical matchups with Waino.
I wouldn't be so sure. Vegas has Kershaw as a 67% favorite right now.
That only means that bettors are betting on Kershaw. Doesn't mean that Vegas "thinks" Kershaw will win... just that this is how the betting is going.
They set the money line as accurate as possible with regard to projected win% based on their computer algorythm so that once betting opens so that they are guaranteed profit from the vig. As time passes, they will adjust it, but the initial release of the money lines is a projection of what they believe the actual percentages are going to be. Since baseball games typically don't have much time for bets to alter lines, they rely more on their projections of the game's outcome.

I used to think the same thing you did until I had a little back and forth Q & A with a former oddsmaker a few months ago.
Wow, we really are 2-1 underdogs right now. Is that where the moneyline started at?

My overall point is that there's no way that going from Kershaw > Grienke results in a 30 percentage point swing. Kershaw is very, very good but in a one game sample, the difference between facing him and Grienke isn't that large.

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Jocephus
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by Jocephus »

yea but what does the A.S.S. say

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pioneer98
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by pioneer98 »

If I use these oddds:
Waino vs Kershaw = 35% chance of winning
Lynn vs Greinke = 40% chance of winning

Lynn vs Kershaw = 15% chance of winning
Waino vs Greinke = 40% chance of winning

And Game 3 = 50% chance of winning (toss up)

This is what I get:
Image

Starting Waino vs Kershaw gives the Cards like a 1.2% better chance of advancing. If these odds are way off, tell me what they should be and I can change it easily.

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Secret Weapon
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by Secret Weapon »

So you give the same odds of Lynn facing Greinke as Wainwright? I think we'd be a slight favorite with Wainwright going against Greinke, at maybe 55% then.

Nvm, I see you gave Wainwright a 60% chance in your spreadsheet, just mistyped it in your post.

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Felix The Cat
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by Felix The Cat »

pioneer98 wrote:If I use these oddds:
Waino vs Kershaw = 35% chance of winning
Lynn vs Greinke = 40% chance of winning

Lynn vs Kershaw = 15% chance of winning
Waino vs Greinke = 40% chance of winning

And Game 3 = 50% chance of winning (toss up)

This is what I get:
Image

Starting Waino vs Kershaw gives the Cards like a 1.2% better chance of advancing. If these odds are way off, tell me what they should be and I can change it easily.
Somebody already pointed out that having Wainwright pitch Game 1 gives us the option to start him on 3 days rest in Game 4 if we're facing elimination at that juncture. We really don't have a choice but hope a Game 5 happens if we're down 2-1 after using Wainwright in Game 2.

Also, you'd probably want to shift the odds 5-10% in our favor in Games 3 and 4 due to HFA. Don't think that affects the comparison though.

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Secret Weapon
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by Secret Weapon »

Pitching Wainwright on short rest then having Lynn face Kershaw in game 5 seems like an awful idea to me.

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Felix The Cat
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by Felix The Cat »

The Dodgers went with Kershaw on short rest last year in Game 4 to close out the Braves in the NLDS. Would they do that again if the situation presents itself this year? Even if they lose the short-rest Kershaw start, they'd have Greinke on normal rest for Game 5 in LA.

Facing elimination, would you go with a short rest Waino, an iffy Wacha, or Lackey? (assuming Shelby is starting Game 3)

redpeppers5000
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Re: 2014 Cardinals: NL Central Division Champs!

Post by redpeppers5000 »

I am not a Dodger hater, I won't mind them representing the National League in this year's World Series, I think that the Cards-Dodgers rivalry is sweet and classic, but I don't know if they can beat the Cards in this NLDS. The ESPN pundits wants the Dodgers to win, but we'll see.

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