Cards sign Belisle

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Jocephus
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Re: Cards sign Belisle

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Not Every Free Agent Is Expensive

by Paul Swydan - December 5, 2014
Matt Belisle — one year, $3.5 million contract with the Cardinals

First thing first — this is the move that freed Carlos Martinez! If nothing else, that is good news, though you could make the argument that they would have signed someone else to reach that goal. Nevertheless, Belisle’s signing gets credit.

More importantly, the move should be a great one for the Cardinals. The Rockies couldn’t be faulted too much for declining Belisle’s $4.25 million club option — they have limited payroll flexibility and bigger fish to fry — but reports of Belisle’s demise were greatly exaggerated. His “down” 2014 season saw him post an 87 FIP-. Yes, that is a supbar season for him, given that he had posted a FIP- between 59 and 69 in each season from 2010-2013, but what he did last year wasn’t exactly cause for alarm. Belisle’s velocity and contact percentage were in line with his previous seasons when he had more pronounced success. Belisle was definitely not clutch last season — his Clutch score was easily the worst of his career, as was his WPA and RE24 — but he has earned the benefit of the doubt.

If there is one thing to watch for, it is that his zone percentage was at a career low last year. The drop in zone percentage was coupled with a drop in O-Swing%, which is how you end up with a five percent drop in K rate. This seems somewhat deliberate, as his first-strike percentage was at an all-time high, and perhaps can be chalked up to poor strategy, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

The Cardinals lost Pat Neshek in free agency, and it seems likely that some team will give him more than what Belisle will get. Yet their projections are the same — 0.4 WAR for Belisle, 0.3 for Neshek. Hanrahan, if healthy, has the same 0.3 figure, as do Frasor and Frieri. Johnson is projected at 0.1, but he has been better before, and if the Braves can unlock his sinker… Compare that to what the crowd has Sergio Romo pegged at, or even the $5 million per season that Hochevar and Duke got. Those two are projected to be better, but the difference is so minute that it probably makes sense to go with the cheaper option.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/not-ever ... expensive/

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