The rumor mill, which will be churning loud and often between now and Friday, spit out an intriguing name on Sunday – Orioles first baseman Chris Davis.
Davis, 29, is exactly the type of player who should interest the Cardinals. He bats left-handed. He has hit 22 home runs this season. And he is a free agent after this season, meaning he would fulfill Mozeliak’s goal for any acquisition of not being a player who would potentially block Adams’ return next year.
There has been no confirmed indication that the Cardinals are pursuing Davis, or even that the Orioles would deal him, but it would seem to make sense for both teams.
Davis makes $12 million this season, so a deal would only cost the Cardinals about $4 million to cover his salary for the final third of the year. He is one of eight potential free agents on the Orioles and expects a big payday in his next contract but reportedly has not begun any serious discussions about a new deal in Baltimore.
The Orioles, at the moment, are trying to decide whether they should be buyers or sellers before Friday’s deadline, the same status that hamstrings many teams at this point in the season. Their win Sunday at Tampa Bay left them 48-49 on the season, seven games behind the division –leading Yankees. They are four games out of the second wild-card spot.
The question facing the Orioles is what kind of prospect, or prospects, they could get for Davis – and there is at least one way of looking at the potential return.
If they hold onto Davis for the rest of the season, and then make him a qualifying offer for a one-year deal as a free agent – which, because he is represented by Scott Boras would automatically be rejected – the Orioles would receive a compensation pick in next June’s free agent draft when Davis signs with another team.
So, if they decide to trade Davis now, the Orioles would want – and should get – a prospect who is at least equal to the player they would expect to draft with that compensation pick, somewhere in the top 40 picks of the draft.
From the Cardinals, that would likely mean giving up one of their better prospects – at least that is what the Orioles would want, and ask for. It might be a lower level Class A pitcher, but would Davis’ acquisition for two months be meaningful enough for the Cardinals to part with a top pitching prospect such as Rob Kaminsky? Probably not, which means there might not be a deal.
Would the Cardinals be willing to move a prospect such as Luke Weaver or Jack Flaherty for Davis, perhaps including a lower-end prospect as well? That is likely the kind of talent it would take, even on a rental deal, because the Cardinals will not be the only team asking about Davis if the Orioles do decide to make him available.
Chris Davis on cards radar?
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
http://www.stlsportspage.com/CARDSBASEB ... inals.aspx
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
Is there a guarantee that Baltimore would give him a QO though, if they were to hold onto him? He's not doing too bad this year (1.8 WAR so far), but idk if he'd be worth another full win or not for the rest of the season to justify his remaining salary.
This is also the king of extremes... An incredible 6.4 WAR 2013 season with over 50 HR, and then a full 2014 season (less his 50 game PED suspension) batting below the Mendoza line. He doesn't whiff QUITE as much as Reynolds, but he's not that far behind. Although even if he's worth only 0.5 WAR for the rest of the season, he'd be better than the replacement level production we've received so far from Reynolds.
This is also the king of extremes... An incredible 6.4 WAR 2013 season with over 50 HR, and then a full 2014 season (less his 50 game PED suspension) batting below the Mendoza line. He doesn't whiff QUITE as much as Reynolds, but he's not that far behind. Although even if he's worth only 0.5 WAR for the rest of the season, he'd be better than the replacement level production we've received so far from Reynolds.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
While I would appreciate the power Davis brings, I would rather see Lind's higher contact and fewer homers.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
That right there is the reason why we will not trade for Davis. He's more valuable to the Orioles than he is worth to us. To get value right now, the Orioles would have to be able to get a 1st round caliber talent that is reasonably close to the majors. For us, that's someone like Marco Gonzales, Piscotty, Kaminsky, Alex Reyes, maybe Carson Kelly or Charlie Tilson (but I think it would take more than those guys).If they hold onto Davis for the rest of the season, and then make him a qualifying offer for a one-year deal as a free agent – which, because he is represented by Scott Boras would automatically be rejected – the Orioles would receive a compensation pick in next June’s free agent draft when Davis signs with another team.
A possibility is Tim Cooney, who has done nothing to hurt his trade value. Package him with a Patrick Wisdom or someone like Tommy Pham. Might be enough. If I was the GM, I would still want the first round pick over two guys of that caliber.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
The Cardinals wouldn't trade Alex Reyes for Chris Davis in a million years.Fat Strat wrote:That right there is the reason why we will not trade for Davis. He's more valuable to the Orioles than he is worth to us. To get value right now, the Orioles would have to be able to get a 1st round caliber talent that is reasonably close to the majors. For us, that's someone like Marco Gonzales, Piscotty, Kaminsky, Alex Reyes, maybe Carson Kelly or Charlie Tilson (but I think it would take more than those guys).If they hold onto Davis for the rest of the season, and then make him a qualifying offer for a one-year deal as a free agent – which, because he is represented by Scott Boras would automatically be rejected – the Orioles would receive a compensation pick in next June’s free agent draft when Davis signs with another team.
A possibility is Tim Cooney, who has done nothing to hurt his trade value. Package him with a Patrick Wisdom or someone like Tommy Pham. Might be enough. If I was the GM, I would still want the first round pick over two guys of that caliber.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
Yeah, that's just waaaaay too much to spend on a rental, especially if we are looking at Adams to be the future. We need to find someone who can be had for not much other than maybe salary relief... oh geez, we're getting Howard aren't we?Fat Strat wrote:That right there is the reason why we will not trade for Davis. He's more valuable to the Orioles than he is worth to us. To get value right now, the Orioles would have to be able to get a 1st round caliber talent that is reasonably close to the majors. For us, that's someone like Marco Gonzales, Piscotty, Kaminsky, Alex Reyes, maybe Carson Kelly or Charlie Tilson (but I think it would take more than those guys).If they hold onto Davis for the rest of the season, and then make him a qualifying offer for a one-year deal as a free agent – which, because he is represented by Scott Boras would automatically be rejected – the Orioles would receive a compensation pick in next June’s free agent draft when Davis signs with another team.
A possibility is Tim Cooney, who has done nothing to hurt his trade value. Package him with a Patrick Wisdom or someone like Tommy Pham. Might be enough. If I was the GM, I would still want the first round pick over two guys of that caliber.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
Yeah, that's Howard. ARam before he was traded.JCShutout wrote:Yeah, that's just waaaaay too much to spend on a rental, especially if we are looking at Adams to be the future. We need to find someone who can be had for not much other than maybe salary relief... oh geez, we're getting Howard aren't we?
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
The only problem with Howard is having to pay him $25m next year.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
Fortunately, Howard's family circling like vultures will be incentive enough to prevent him from waiving his no-trade clause.JCShutout wrote:The only problem with Howard is having to pay him $25m next year.
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Re: Chris Davis on cards radar?
Of course they wouldn't. That would be beyond foolish. But, why should the Orioles settle for weak prospects when they can just get a 1st round pick?Magneto2.0 wrote:The Cardinals wouldn't trade Alex Reyes for Chris Davis in a million years.
I just don't think that Chris Davis gets traded. 1st round picks are like gold. Why would a team give up the chance to draft the next Wacha or Wong just to get Tim Cooney?