Out of curiosity, where are you getting the 5 plays difference figure?phins wrote:His projections look for him to hit at virtually the exact same level as Diaz. ~86 wRC+.
The number of plays that he made in 2014 when he was rated at 7.9 in defense that he didn't in 2015 when he was rated -0.9? Five. Five plays difference. He had several more chances in 2014, so that is scaled to account for this, or otherwise the true number would be three.
If you look at his FG page, he took significant steps back across the board from 2014 to 2015.
-230 plays on 284 balls in his zone in 2014 (80.9%) compared to 140/185 in 2015 (75.7%). Prorate that out and you get 15 plays.
-Using the Inside Edge stuff, he get to 5.9% less balls that were considered remote (very unlikely to make the play) from 2014 to 2015; his even odds plays went down from 42.9% to 28.6%; and his likely plays went from 81.8% to 50%. Now... there's obviously some small sample stuff going on there. We're talking about 46 opportunities spread across those categories. But the fact that it was across the board is not a good sign.
-It's tough without context, but he also started and turned far fewer double plays last season compared to 2014.
I don't mean to sound alarmist about any of this stuff because defensive stats are notorious for needing larger sample sizes, and the Tejada move is... fine, basically, as far as I'm concerned. Nor do I intend to sound snarky or rude. I'm just legitimately curious where you get the 5 plays thing.