Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

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JL21
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by JL21 »

phins wrote:His projections look for him to hit at virtually the exact same level as Diaz. ~86 wRC+.

The number of plays that he made in 2014 when he was rated at 7.9 in defense that he didn't in 2015 when he was rated -0.9? Five. Five plays difference. He had several more chances in 2014, so that is scaled to account for this, or otherwise the true number would be three.
Out of curiosity, where are you getting the 5 plays difference figure?

If you look at his FG page, he took significant steps back across the board from 2014 to 2015.

-230 plays on 284 balls in his zone in 2014 (80.9%) compared to 140/185 in 2015 (75.7%). Prorate that out and you get 15 plays.

-Using the Inside Edge stuff, he get to 5.9% less balls that were considered remote (very unlikely to make the play) from 2014 to 2015; his even odds plays went down from 42.9% to 28.6%; and his likely plays went from 81.8% to 50%. Now... there's obviously some small sample stuff going on there. We're talking about 46 opportunities spread across those categories. But the fact that it was across the board is not a good sign.

-It's tough without context, but he also started and turned far fewer double plays last season compared to 2014.

I don't mean to sound alarmist about any of this stuff because defensive stats are notorious for needing larger sample sizes, and the Tejada move is... fine, basically, as far as I'm concerned. Nor do I intend to sound snarky or rude. I'm just legitimately curious where you get the 5 plays thing.

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Cheddar Tom
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by Cheddar Tom »

I am also struggling to find the 5 plays difference....there's an 18 run swing from 2014 to 2015 in DRS.

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Hoot45
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by Hoot45 »

Tejada was lost in New York. The team felt he wasn't working hard enough and had a bad attitude. Mets GM and Jose Reyes both had called Tejada out publicly. Reyes was especially critical. The media was hard on him and he was constantly being criticized for being out of shape. Much of it probably justified, by the way.

In my opinion Tejada is a genuine case of "needs a change of scenery". So yes, Cardinals pixie dust!

phins
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by phins »

JL21 wrote:
phins wrote:His projections look for him to hit at virtually the exact same level as Diaz. ~86 wRC+.

The number of plays that he made in 2014 when he was rated at 7.9 in defense that he didn't in 2015 when he was rated -0.9? Five. Five plays difference. He had several more chances in 2014, so that is scaled to account for this, or otherwise the true number would be three.
Out of curiosity, where are you getting the 5 plays difference figure?

If you look at his FG page, he took significant steps back across the board from 2014 to 2015.

-230 plays on 284 balls in his zone in 2014 (80.9%) compared to 140/185 in 2015 (75.7%). Prorate that out and you get 15 plays.

-Using the Inside Edge stuff, he get to 5.9% less balls that were considered remote (very unlikely to make the play) from 2014 to 2015; his even odds plays went down from 42.9% to 28.6%; and his likely plays went from 81.8% to 50%. Now... there's obviously some small sample stuff going on there. We're talking about 46 opportunities spread across those categories. But the fact that it was across the board is not a good sign.

-It's tough without context, but he also started and turned far fewer double plays last season compared to 2014.

I don't mean to sound alarmist about any of this stuff because defensive stats are notorious for needing larger sample sizes, and the Tejada move is... fine, basically, as far as I'm concerned. Nor do I intend to sound snarky or rude. I'm just legitimately curious where you get the 5 plays thing.
I weighted it for percentages ranges that a player should get to based on type. I didn't weight the Likely plays he should've made the same as the Unlikely plays.

My number isn't stating he got to five fewer balls than he did before, I'm saying he didn't make five fewer plans than he should have made based on where the balls were hit.

For me, this is a better way of looking at things than simply balls in his zone, but defensive stats are all over the place, so maybe I'm completely wrong and he's just terrible everywhere.

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Swirls
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by Swirls »

Hoot45 wrote:Tejada was lost in New York. The team felt he wasn't working hard enough and had a bad attitude. Mets GM and Jose Reyes both had called Tejada out publicly. Reyes was especially critical. The media was hard on him and he was constantly being criticized for being out of shape. Much of it probably justified, by the way.

In my opinion Tejada is a genuine case of "needs a change of scenery". So yes, Cardinals pixie dust!
So he cares about baseball again?

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Hoot45
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by Hoot45 »

Swirls wrote:
Hoot45 wrote:Tejada was lost in New York. The team felt he wasn't working hard enough and had a bad attitude. Mets GM and Jose Reyes both had called Tejada out publicly. Reyes was especially critical. The media was hard on him and he was constantly being criticized for being out of shape. Much of it probably justified, by the way.

In my opinion Tejada is a genuine case of "needs a change of scenery". So yes, Cardinals pixie dust!
So he cares about baseball again?
The good news is it didn't cost us much to find out. And find out we will.

dmarx114
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by dmarx114 »

Sounds like the tejada era may be coming to an end.

Signing made sense when we didn't know what we had in Diaz.

Just not needed anymore.

Freed Roger
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by Freed Roger »

dmarx114 wrote:Sounds like the tejada era may be coming to an end.

Signing made sense when we didn't know what we had in Diaz.

Just not needed anymore.
Gyrork can go too. Not that he of the mighty swing will. MO gets a woody over those crazy ass swings that connect once and a blue moon.

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Cheddar Tom
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by Cheddar Tom »

Gyorko is fine...Wong should be a trade candidate, Garcia needs a role.

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sighyoung
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Re: Cardinals close to signing Tejada... so close it's done

Post by sighyoung »

Tejada was supposed to be a utility player, not a futility player.

He certainly effed up the utility job.

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