Rotation predictions

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MinorLeagueGuy
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Re: Rotation predictions

Post by MinorLeagueGuy »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:As long as Matheny's managing, I have a hard time believing anyone but Waino will get Opening Day honors.
This.. Regardless of competion, if there will even be one.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Rotation predictions

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MinorLeagueGuy wrote:Why do people think Adam is still good? He was lost in so many ways last year. So many- that he went "back to the drawing board" Multiple times. He is what he is; a good(not great) star who had a few good years, and couldnt recover from an achilles injury. If this franchise plugs him in as our Ace, then it's just another reward for past performance that we've given guys time and time again. I would love for Waino to do a paradigm shift this year, but I don't see it- he floundered for too long last year without answers. Send the right message to Cardinal nation; if Adam performs no better than a 3-4 rotaion guy this spring- put him there..
I think you are underselling Waino by a lot. The guy is a gamer. Guys like him don't just forget how to pitch. He wasn't physically 100% last year. He had a similar year after coming back from TJ surgery. Sure he's older now, and he might not ever be the guy he was 5 years ago, but I bet he has a much better year this year.

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Farewell Friends
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Re: Rotation predictions

Post by Farewell Friends »

Yeah, Wainwright may be "good' rather than great now, but he's had a fantastic career and was absolutely a star. Since 2009, he's 10th among MLB starters in FIP (3.03) and WAR (30). That comes with a lost season (2011); a recovery season (2012, and he was still worth 4 wins); another lost season (2015, and he may have been worth close to 6 wins) and another recovery season (2016). He may have lost anywhere between 10-15 wins, which would put him right under Kershaw.

He's easily one of the best 20 pitchers of this century.

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Re: Rotation predictions

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AW really under-performed his peripherals last year with very little change -- none significant -- in his velocity or pitch percentages. He also had the highest BB rate of his career -- which feels very fluky or at least partially explained by missing a full year '15 -- an unusually high HR%, and the highest BABIP of his career. In fact, the season that best resembles what AW did last year was '12 when he missed all of '12.

I still think there is plenty of reason to think AW could bounce back and have a good season. Probably not Cy Young contention, but that's mostly because of age.
Last edited by Fat Strat on February 22 17, 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Rotation predictions

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Yeah. What Farewell and Fat said. LOL

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Re: Rotation predictions

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I don't think it's crazy to think Waino could bounce back and have a much better season than last year. He won't revert to 2014 form or anything, but he could be really solid. His main problem was he gave up too many fly balls and home runs last year. His other numbers were not that far off of his career numbers. His FIP last year was 3.93, which was #35 in MLB among qualified SP. Leake's situation was very, very similar. This is why I don't get why improving defense wasn't more of a priority.

Looking at WAR on Baseball Reference, Waino was worth 1.0 WAR and Leake 0.5 WAR last year. My understanding is that is based on actual results (whereas fWAR is based on FIP). With better defense, both of these guys could easily be worth more like 2 to 3 bWAR. And of course the rest of the pitching staff would benefit from better defense as well. This is why I would have loved to see them get a Nick Ahmed or some other elite defensive SS like that as a defensive sub, or occasional starter. Defense is just such a huge glaring weakness. It will be somewhat better but it could have been improved a lot more than it was.

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Re: Rotation predictions

Post by Fat Strat »

pioneer98 wrote:Defense is just such a huge glaring weakness. It will be somewhat better but it could have been improved a lot more than it was.
I think that we allowed ourselves to be held hostage by the current roster and then tried to see how we could translate what we had into better defense. That's certainly the logic behind moving Carpenter to 1b, Grichuk to LF and Peralta to 3b, though it seems silly (foolish?) to move players to a brand new position in order to improve overall defense. Wong is an excellent fielder but he has to perform to stay on the field. Molina is declining, there's no denying it. Piscotty could take a small step forward in defensive stats, but I think he's pretty darn good already. Fowler is theoretically supposed to help defensively as well, which I don't understand at all. Fowler is a combined -64 DRS CF'er in 8 seasons at the position. Grichuk is +14. (I think you could make an argument that if each player performs at their normal levels, there could be as much as a 2 win difference with Fowler in CF and Grichuk in LF as oppossed to Fowler in LF and Grichuk in CF). Diaz is supposed to take strides forward as well, but it's a huge stretch to think he'll even be average over a full season.

The bench is no help. Gyroko, Garcia, Pham, Adams and whatever backup C breaks camp are not great with the glove anywhere.

Defense was certainly a priority that we didn't really prioritize. We shuffled the deck chairs a little to try and get them in a better position but it probably won't make any real difference for a season or two.

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MinorLeagueGuy
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Re: Rotation predictions

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He lost his ability to throw the curveball consistantly and for strikes. Dig up his post game interviews. He constantly talks about struggling to find release point, timing, and control of the strikezone. I never said he forgot how to pitch. But his body, without injury, forgot the muscle memory. Maybe over the winter he was able to tinker. But we haven't heard anything that he's trying that's "new". It would be a bold prediction to think he can have big improvement over last campaign. Maybe a little better, but not close to the guy we've relied upon to anchor the rotation.

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st.lewis11
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Re: Rotation predictions

Post by st.lewis11 »

I'd bet Waino himself would almost insist that CMart should get the honor of starting the opener.
I can't really remember, but a few years ago, either he or Carpenter deferred the honor to another pitcher in a similar way.

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Re: Rotation predictions

Post by tlombard »

MinorLeagueGuy wrote:He lost his ability to throw the curveball consistantly and for strikes. Dig up his post game interviews. He constantly talks about struggling to find release point, timing, and control of the strikezone. I never said he forgot how to pitch. But his body, without injury, forgot the muscle memory. Maybe over the winter he was able to tinker. But we haven't heard anything that he's trying that's "new". It would be a bold prediction to think he can have big improvement over last campaign. Maybe a little better, but not close to the guy we've relied upon to anchor the rotation.
He hasn't said he's trying anything 'new' but he has commented that he didn't have the strength or confidence in that injured limb all of last season which most likely contributed to a few of the issues with simply not completely trusting that plant foot during your delivery. While it isn't 'new' he has also said that he's been able to work on that base a lot more this off season as opposed to last season and that should help him more than 'tinkering' or trying something 'new' ever would if he was able to get his base back to where it was pre-injury. We always focus on the pitching arm but the rest of the body has an extremely important role in pitching too.

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