My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yours?

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Farewell Friends
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Farewell Friends »

There is not a single team that would open their books for the public.

Socnorb11
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Socnorb11 »

Farewell Friends wrote:There is not a single team that would open their books for the public.

This isn't a rhetorical question............... but where does Forbes get their information from?

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Farewell Friends
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Farewell Friends »

pioneer98 wrote:Just another reason that they should go over the top once in a while on a contract offer to get top end talent.
I think they likely just did this with Fowler, Cecil and Peralta before them. I think they made a mistake not going after Scherzer or Lester and they could have at least made Justin Turner say no (maybe they did, but it doesn't sound like it), but they tried to make David Price the third-highest paid pitcher of all-time before Dombrowski came in over the top at the last second. They also offered a guy with a broken swing $200 million. I'd say they need to be a bit more aggressive in trades, but then you look at the 50 most valuable players in 2016 and it becomes clear that just about none of them were available that way.

ETA: The difficulty in obtaining elite players is exactly why they should've reached on Robert.

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TheoSqua
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by TheoSqua »

The cardinals remind me of back when i'd spend an embarrassing amount of time playing Baseball Mogul. Players in that game are on a scale of 0-100 and around the year 2034 i'd have a team of random players like Yadier Pujols and Miguel Jeter that were all rated between 90-95 and consistently win 120 games a year. Proving once and for all that i'd be the best GM in the game.

Then the games algorithm would struggle to keep pace and somewhere around the year 2070 the best players in the game would no longer be in the 90s, they'd top out around 80-85, and the inflation in the game meant that league minimum was $52,000,000 a year and the best players, who weren't good enough to be on the bench of my aging team, wanted half of my entire payroll to sign.

Eventually all my good players would retire and my team would fall to a abysmally low 95 or so wins and broke their 82 year world series win streak and lost to some team with a 1.5bil payroll. I'd break down and start handing out 200mil contracts to players who I used to release from AAA because they'd never crack my team.

Point is, the game is changing. The cost of acquiring talent is now more expensive and riskier than it has ever been. Teams are getting better at identifying talent and making it harder to "beat the system" so to speak. The Cardinals need to adjust to an extent and realize market correct.

The other point, as has been mentioned several times, is the Cardinals have just been a bit unlucky over the last few years with acquiring top-end talent. The talent they have drafted/groomed/traded just hasn't worked out. I think this is especially hard for some Cardinals fans because the team had a big run of luck with regards to talent acquisition. There isn't any such thing as magic pixie dust. The Cardinals just got really lucky for a while.

Pudgelewis
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Pudgelewis »

When are the actual offer amounts made public? Assuming they make them public.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Farewell Friends wrote:
pioneer98 wrote:Just another reason that they should go over the top once in a while on a contract offer to get top end talent.
I think they likely just did this with Fowler, Cecil and Peralta before them. I think they made a mistake not going after Scherzer or Lester and they could have at least made Justin Turner say no (maybe they did, but it doesn't sound like it), but they tried to make David Price the third-highest paid pitcher of all-time before Dombrowski came in over the top at the last second. They also offered a guy with a broken swing $200 million. I'd say they need to be a bit more aggressive in trades, but then you look at the 50 most valuable players in 2016 and it becomes clear that just about none of them were available that way.

ETA: The difficulty in obtaining elite players is exactly why they should've reached on Robert.
I'm glad you made that edit because I almost said something earlier.

Looking at fangraphs top 50 position players, it's pretty clear that the majority of those guys are with the teams that drafted them. A few guys were picked up in exchange for vets at the trade deadline, a few guys were signed as FA, a few guys were picked up in monster trades, and a few guys were exteneded with their original teams. Still, the majority of the guys are with the team that drafted them. With the dearth of high end talent in the Cardinals minor league system, and with their troubles bringing in high end talent via FA (not to mention the risk associated), it did make a lot of sense to reach for Robert.

Here's the fangraphs link of the top 50 position players by war.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &page=1_30

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Famous Mortimer »

Farewell Friends wrote:There is not a single team that would open their books for the public.
Where do the places that report on this get their figures from?

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Felix The Cat
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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Felix The Cat »

I couldn't find very much of an explanation on Forbes' website (maybe I didn't look hard enough though) except:
Forbes’ team values are enterprise values (equity plus debt) based on current stadium deals (unless a new stadium is pending).

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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by Johnconrad »

TheoSqua wrote:The cardinals remind me of back when i'd spend an embarrassing amount of time playing Baseball Mogul. Players in that game are on a scale of 0-100 and around the year 2034 i'd have a team of random players like Yadier Pujols and Miguel Jeter that were all rated between 90-95 and consistently win 120 games a year. Proving once and for all that i'd be the best GM in the game.

Then the games algorithm would struggle to keep pace and somewhere around the year 2070 the best players in the game would no longer be in the 90s, they'd top out around 80-85, and the inflation in the game meant that league minimum was $52,000,000 a year and the best players, who weren't good enough to be on the bench of my aging team, wanted half of my entire payroll to sign.

Eventually all my good players would retire and my team would fall to a abysmally low 95 or so wins and broke their 82 year world series win streak and lost to some team with a 1.5bil payroll. I'd break down and start handing out 200mil contracts to players who I used to release from AAA because they'd never crack my team.

Point is, the game is changing. The cost of acquiring talent is now more expensive and riskier than it has ever been. Teams are getting better at identifying talent and making it harder to "beat the system" so to speak. The Cardinals need to adjust to an extent and realize market correct.

The other point, as has been mentioned several times, is the Cardinals have just been a bit unlucky over the last few years with acquiring top-end talent. The talent they have drafted/groomed/traded just hasn't worked out. I think this is especially hard for some Cardinals fans because the team had a big run of luck with regards to talent acquisition. There isn't any such thing as magic pixie dust. The Cardinals just got really lucky for a while.
How about we hire back the guy who got so "lucky"?

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Re: My prediction: We sign Robert for a total of $65 mil. Yo

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

I've been thinking about this more than a healthy amount of time now and one thing that hasn't been mentioned yet that probably factored into the decision...

If the Cardinals had signed him to a (let's say) $30M bonus and paid a $30M tax. That's 6 years, presumably, of MLB control for a total payment of $60M+his contract.

How would that sit with the current players? Marp is on a 6 year/52M deal. It would cost more in bonus to sign this guy than they will pay Carp for 6 years of baseball. Gyorko is 6/32 i think. Same thing. I know it's not something we think about, but Robert would have become one of the top paid players before he ever set foot on the field. You'd like to think the players understand the scenario, but I can certainly envision that not being the best for morale in the short term. What is good for morale, obviously, is winning. So, if he helps with that, then it is probably a moot point. Still...something to think about.

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