Matt Adams traded to the braves

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Johnconrad
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Johnconrad »

Farewell Friends wrote:Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, Carson Kelly, Oscar Mercado and Mags Sierra disagree. And there's a group of 19 and 20-year-olds in Peoria that have tremendous upside. The best.
They'll all get 5 year auditions - just like Adams.

AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Lunhow was good. Nobody is saying he wasn't.

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Farewell Friends
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Farewell Friends »

He was very good. My argument is that the Cardinals have not crumbled without him. I mean, seven years ago people thought he was too protective of the Faberge Eggs. Just seems that the pendulum of public opinion has swung way too far to another side.

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Famous Mortimer »

go birds wrote:I'm talking about diamonds in the rough.....................in the draft
...In the creek

Image

Johnconrad
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Johnconrad »

Farewell Friends wrote:He was very good. My argument is that the Cardinals have not crumbled without him. I mean, seven years ago people thought he was too protective of the Faberge Eggs. Just seems that the pendulum of public opinion has swung way too far to another side.
They're crumbling now.

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Farewell Friends
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Farewell Friends »

That's not remotely true, but okay.

Johnconrad
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Johnconrad »

Farewell Friends wrote:That's not remotely true, but okay.
Are they more likely to win 90 games or 75 games - total?

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Tim
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Tim »

Johnconrad wrote:
Farewell Friends wrote:That's not remotely true, but okay.
Are they more likely to win 90 games or 75 games - total?
This year? 90

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Transmogrified Tiger
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Transmogrified Tiger »

Here's a comparison that might be illustrative. The biggest problem the Cardinals have is a lack of starpower, they didn't have any players exceed 3.5 fWAR last year and unless Martinez finds a bit more consistency or Gyorko keeps up a .400 BABIP all season, they won't have a 5 win player this year. Here's the 5 fWAR players in the Mozeliak era and who acquired them:

- Pujols - 3x - before Mozeliak and Luhnow
- Wainwright - 3x - before Mozeliak and Luhnow
- Molina - 2x - before Mozeliak and Luhnow
- M. Carpenter - 2x - drafted by Mozeliak/Luhnow
- Ludwick (!) - 1x - before Mozeliak, no Luhnow influence
- C. Carpenter - 1x - before Mozeliak and Luhnow
- Holliday - 1x - under Mozeliak, no Luhnow influence
- Peralta - 1x - under Mozeliak, no Luhnow influence
- Heyward - 1x - under Mozeliak, no Luhnow influence

I think that helps tell a story pretty well. Luhnow was good at his job, but Mozeliak has similar strengths at finding solid depth to fill out a roster(Gyorko, Grichuk, Moss, Berkman, Beltran, etc) so they didn't really lose much in that regard. Where Mozeliak hasn't established himself as much is in consistently getting top end performers. He's done it, and I don't think there's an identification problem there, but he didn't need to do it much until recently because his predecessor had left him with several players(and with Luhnow's help added another) that could do so several times. Now that everyone on that list is not expected to ever be able to return to that threshold, we're seeing a roster that isn't able to provide that top end talent. There's been some bad luck from the farm system that's lowered his chances(Taveras, Reyes), but he's also not made a decisive MLB move in quite some time. In fact the last move he made that truly had significant downside that I can think of was Miller for Heyward, which is a great example of how risk is needed to be really good.

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Farewell Friends
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Re: Matt Adams traded to the braves

Post by Farewell Friends »

That is a terrific summary of what I was trying to communicate on my phone. Excellent points and I couldn't agree more.

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