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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 11:38 am 
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The org should slow down making Bader a franchise cornerstone. Seems premature.


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 11:59 am 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
The org should slow down making Bader a franchise cornerstone. Seems premature.


But he is so dreamy....


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 12:01 pm 
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wart57 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
The org should slow down making Bader a franchise cornerstone. Seems premature.


But he is so dreamy....

He's our density.


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 12:04 pm 
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Bader rules. Nice to have some speed for once


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 12:15 pm 
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MAGA wrote:
Bader rules. Nice to have some speed for once

Agreed.

I love Bader. But I think O'Neill is equally fast. And a bunch times stronger.


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 12:20 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
The org should slow down making Bader a franchise cornerstone. Seems premature.


Can’t blame the Players’ Tribune video on the Cards org. That was independent of the team. Also not saying anyone is to blame - nice little nothing fluff piece that can’t hurt his marketability. But angst toward the org is better directed elsewhere.


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 12:24 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:
Bader rules. Nice to have some speed for once

Agreed.

I love Bader. But I think O'Neill is equally fast. And a bunch times stronger.


Here he’s putting up 405#.


https://twitter.com/toneill21/status/10 ... 21285?s=21


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: February 12 19, 5:02 pm 
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Phansett wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:
Bader rules. Nice to have some speed for once

Agreed.

I love Bader. But I think O'Neill is equally fast. And a bunch times stronger.


Here he’s putting up 405#.


https://twitter.com/toneill21/status/10 ... 21285?s=21


That does nothing for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: July 8 19, 9:46 am 
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MAGA wrote:
Bader rules. Nice to have some speed for once

78 wRC+

What good is the speed if he doesn't hit or get on base?

Late inning defenders shouldn't get 400+ PAs a season.

Worse than Grichuk, value wise.


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 Post subject: Re: Bader time
PostPosted: July 8 19, 10:33 am 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:
Bader rules. Nice to have some speed for once

78 wRC+

What good is the speed if he doesn't hit or get on base?

Late inning defenders shouldn't get 400+ PAs a season.

Worse than Grichuk, value wise.


Defense is there. He is basically on the same pace as last year. Maybe even a tick better (UZR/150 - 24.6 '19 compared to 20.1 in '18). OF all CF'ers with 1000 innings, Bader has by far the highest UZR/150 in the game since '18. Keirmaier and Cain are 13.4 and 11.9 respectively; and Keirmaier only has 300 more innings, so Bader isn't that far behind him in opportunities. That UZR/150 could drop with more innings, but it hasn't so far. And, even if it does Bader is ALREADY the best CF'er in the game by actual UZR - 16.5, compared to 13.8 and 13.5, despite having 300-700 fewer innings. Bader is not a lock for "best CF in the game" yet if only because he doesn't have enough innings for us to claim, definitively "this is real", but he is inching closer.

Offense is far below even reasonable projections for him. He has a .266 BABIP. 3-year ZiPS projections has him with a .323 BABIP. He's hitting enough balls hard and has a high enough LD% that there is a fair amount of bad luck in his current performance. Looking at his 3 year ZiPS, his '18 offense was about .006 wOBA higher than an average of his ZiPS projections ; slightly better than expected, but well within the margin of error. This year, his wOBA is .019 below, despite positive increases in his BB and K rate.

So... a bump of .02 wOBA and league best defense in CF makes Bader a what? A 3-5 WAR CF'er, same as we said last year. Just looking through all of his numbers, that projection doesn't look off to me. He's just struggling.

Our issues are coming because he, along with almost everyone on the team, has not met projections. With DeJong's slump since the last time I looked, we now have no one healthy who is really exceeding projections -- not expectations PROJECTIONS... which are always conservative. Other Cardinals teams have been worse than this one, but their talent level was not high. From a projections and expectations standpoint, this team has underachieved more than any team I can remember. Reminds me a little of '06 but there were injuries involved that year that this team can't claim. You can claim age and poor roster construction, but projections factor the age in and eliminate the roster construction issue. This season, imo, is about 95% on the players who have sucked universally. If 3-4 regulars were doing their job then Bader struggling wouldn't be a big deal (same with any other combo of players) and we would be talking about having the best (and funnest to watch) CF'er in baseball instead of crapping on a really exciting player who is a sophomore slump.


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