Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

Post by CardsofSTL »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:I'll be shocked if Reyes is in the rotation before Weaver. I'm not arguing what's right but what's more likely.
I agree but am not totally against the idea either...with Reyes coming back from TJS I think caution is a good thing.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:Pitchers lose velocity and get dinged up, but they learn to pitch, walk less, or some other way make up for it. Check out this image.
So much of that is simply surviving injuries. If a pitcher can stay healthy, and pitch well enough to stick at the MLB level, he's probably going to last longer. The trick, of course, is that not a lot of pitchers can manage that. Even after one injury, they're frequently a ticking time bomb until the next major one hits. I can't remember where I saw the data, but I think the window is like 4 years after a pitcher has a TJ, and then you have to start holding your breath.

Anyway... as to your other point re: the Cubs loading up on hitting prospects, the BP Annual had a great write-up about that last year. It's one thing to successfully draft and develop (and acquire via trade) a bumper crop of under-25 talent. Hell, the Cardinals have done that as recently as 2015. It's something else altogether to do it with hitters instead of pitchers. Pitcher attrition rates take away some of the good, tasty future sustainability that you'd otherwise get from a bumper crop. The Cubs went all-in on hitters, the Cards opted instead to accentuate their strength- drafting and developing pitchers. Both had good-to-amazing under-25 guys with lots of value over the last few years (2014/2015/even 2016), but the Cubs model has shown to be more sustainable.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

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RE: Lynn... You'll have:

Wacha, Martinez, and Leake, for sure

Then you're hoping for Waino. And then you've got one slot for a SP (and I think it's Weaver... especially with Reyes coming off of injury, I bet they'll want to limit his innings).

The Waino thing really complicates everything. If he would retire, it's a slam dunk that you pay Lynn and deal some combo of Flaherty, Weaver, or Hudson in a larger deal to upgrade the offense somewhere. I guess you could gamble without Lynn and hope that AW can be even mediocre, using Flaherty/Gant/maybe Hudson as your backup plan, but that means you're suddenly missing some potential trade chips.

All I know is, there's a ton of talent about to hit the MLB rotation, from Reyes to Weaver to Flaherty and maybe you get lucky with one of the others (Hudson, Gant), and there's no room at the inn.

If we're choosing one for a future bullpen role, for me, that's Gant and maybe Alcantra.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

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JL21 wrote:
AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:Pitchers lose velocity and get dinged up, but they learn to pitch, walk less, or some other way make up for it. Check out this image.
So much of that is simply surviving injuries. If a pitcher can stay healthy, and pitch well enough to stick at the MLB level, he's probably going to last longer. The trick, of course, is that not a lot of pitchers can manage that. Even after one injury, they're frequently a ticking time bomb until the next major one hits. I can't remember where I saw the data, but I think the window is like 4 years after a pitcher has a TJ, and then you have to start holding your breath.

Anyway... as to your other point re: the Cubs loading up on hitting prospects, the BP Annual had a great write-up about that last year. It's one thing to successfully draft and develop (and acquire via trade) a bumper crop of under-25 talent. Hell, the Cardinals have done that as recently as 2015. It's something else altogether to do it with hitters instead of pitchers. Pitcher attrition rates take away some of the good, tasty future sustainability that you'd otherwise get from a bumper crop. The Cubs went all-in on hitters, the Cards opted instead to accentuate their strength- drafting and developing pitchers. Both had good-to-amazing under-25 guys with lots of value over the last few years (2014/2015/even 2016), but the Cubs model has shown to be more sustainable.

I think the Cubs model has proven to work better when starting a rebuild from scratch. But I actually think being able to draft and develop pitching is what makes success more sustainable. Since pitching has a higher attrition rate, you actually need MORE of it, not less. If you have to keep trading position players for pitchers (because you aren't developing enough pitchers to keep up with attrition), it won't last. Of course, you could also just throw a pile of money at free agent pitchers, too. But if you are a team that doesn't have that luxury...The Rays over the years are a pretty good example of what I'm talking about. The Indians more recently.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

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Well, the thing with pitchers is that you can get a lot of value from them in subtle ways. Upgrading your defense, simply giving them some offensive support, etc... It's such a crap shoot to begin with that you can always do what the Dodgers have done in recent years- throw a bunch of [expletive] against the wall and see what sticks. Or the Pirates, for that matter- they've had a lot of success taking chances on high-end arms that have failed elsewhere.

I think there's sort of two parts of what we're talking about here, too. What I was talking about with the under-25 guys, pertains completely to talent already at the MLB level. If you have a bumper crop of hitters under age 25, your lineup is pretty much set for a 3 year window or longer. And that's where the Cubs are. There's such a small attrition rate there that you can bank on what you have to provide a lot of certainty, cost-controlled. And that cost control allows you to do what you can on the FA market without bloating your payroll too high (or if you're the Cubs and you're desperate to end a 108-year drought, you bloat it as high as needed).

But if you're talking about under-25 pitching talent at the MLB level... who knows? Look at what's happened to what the Cardinals had circa 2013. Rosey has been up and down. Shelby Miller has fluctuated wildly (and been basically useless from poor performance and injury the last two years). Wacha can't complete a season without blowing up down the stretch. Siegrist has seen his velocity disappear and he's garbage now. El Gallo is pretty much the only one who has held up. When they were all young and clicking, it was beautiful, but the group as a whole really illustrates just how risky it is.

Now, they have a big group coming up again soon- they've reloaded. But not every organization can do that consistently (the draft is a crapshoot, no matter how good you are at drafting and developing), and who even knows if this next crop will be as successful even as the last group (much less better).

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

JL21 wrote:RE: Lynn... You'll have:

Wacha, Martinez, and Leake, for sure

Then you're hoping for Waino. And then you've got one slot for a SP (and I think it's Weaver... especially with Reyes coming off of injury, I bet they'll want to limit his innings).

The Waino thing really complicates everything. If he would retire, it's a slam dunk that you pay Lynn and deal some combo of Flaherty, Weaver, or Hudson in a larger deal to upgrade the offense somewhere. I guess you could gamble without Lynn and hope that AW can be even mediocre, using Flaherty/Gant/maybe Hudson as your backup plan, but that means you're suddenly missing some potential trade chips.

All I know is, there's a ton of talent about to hit the MLB rotation, from Reyes to Weaver to Flaherty and maybe you get lucky with one of the others (Hudson, Gant), and there's no room at the inn.

If we're choosing one for a future bullpen role, for me, that's Gant and maybe Alcantra.
I think Gomber should probably be a part of this discussion as well. Definitely at the back end of the discussion but still worth mentioning (espionage since his 2nd half in Springfield has been really good.) He's one of those "no room at the inn" guys. I'd be perfectly comfortable with moving one of the more touted pitchers and letting Gomber slot into SP7/emergency spot starter in 2018.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

Post by Fat Strat »

JL21 wrote:If we're choosing one for a future bullpen role, for me, that's Gant and maybe Alcantra.
I always forget Alcantara.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

Post by heyzeus »

What is Lynn probably looking for, and what will he get?

I could see Leake's deal being somewhat comparable, although Leake was a bit younger when he hit FA.

So let's set the over/under at 5 years/$80mil.

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

Post by Fat Strat »

heyzeus wrote:What is Lynn probably looking for, and what will he get?

I could see Leake's deal being somewhat comparable, although Leake was a bit younger when he hit FA.

So let's set the over/under at 5 years/$80mil.
I would say over on $$'s and 6 years is definitely possible. I think he'll push $100M

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Re: Lance Lynn - Can an argument be made for resigning him?

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Although it is unlikely...from comments Lynn has made in the past I think he would actually like to remain a Cardinal. He might give them a better deal than the top dollar he could get on the open market. That being said; I imagine something like 7/120

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