Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

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Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Fat Strat »

As usual, we seem to be in a position where we desire to acquire an impact player and arguably have the resources to do it, but in order to get said player, we're going to have to get pretty stupid. We have a long and treasured history of sticking to what is comfortable, easy and smart. In today's baseball landscape, the only smart way to improve your club is through the draft. That approach, however, is neither comfortable nor easy -- and perhaps this Cards season demonstrated that perfectly. We were smart with our money and prospects, giving Fowler a relatively team-friendly deal and keeping our prospects, hoping that they would take enough of a step forward to contend. From the clubhouse to the field and even the front office, the team displayed signs of the discomfort and difficulty that comes along with trying to stick with smart player acquisitions.

I look at common trade/FA suggestions and I see a lot of stupid, and not much smart available. Stanton is definitely available for a stupid amount of money. Ozuna and Yelich would be smart picks but it looksl ike they might be off the market.. You would be pretty stupid as a NL team to pay JD Martinez $25M+ as a DH who plays the OF for you. There might be a smart acquisition or two among the 2nd tier FA's -- Hosmer, Moustakas, Frazier, some of the SP's -- but they leave us pretty much right where we were. Comfortable, easy... but barely contending.

So, the question that inspired this post: Which available impact player has the right combination of not too stupid, not so uncomfortable, and relatively easy to get?

Seems like Josh Donaldson is the only and best answer, at least from the group of players we know about right now.

Here's the smart with Donaldson... 5 seasons in a row with 5.0+ WAR. 2017 - a down season where he still managed over 5 WAR in just 113 games. He is an absolute monster of an offensive player, even at 32 and counting. He plays a premium position - 3b - where he's been a plus defender every year by DRS. As a 3b'man, you can also easily expect him to slide over to 1b or corner OF and still provide some defensive value if he can no longer cut it at the hot corner. He's a little on the old side, he'll be a free agent after the season and he's arb eligible, so he should come a little cheaper in terms of salary and prospect/player package than a really good cost-controlled player.

Here's the stupid with Donaldson... Even though he might come cheaper than a cost-controlled player, there's no way he comes cheap. We'll have to give up at least 1 elite prospect (Reyes or Weaver) and a couple more players that we really like to get him. It's possible that Toronto might be willing to take MLB talent, like Wong or Piscotty, and that could soften the hit we'll take on the system to acquire him. But, overall, we can expect to get 1 guaranteed year of Donaldson for 4-6 years of potential cheap production from each of the 3 or so players that we have give up. As I said, that's stupid.

Even more stupid... Donaldson is arb eligble -- 4th year arb. He's almost guaranteed a raise over his $17 salary last year. That's a very significant payroll hit. Then, if we want Donaldson past this year, we can expect to pay stupid money - $25-$30M per year for a guy in his mid-30's, IF we can even win the bidding war or somehow convince him to sign an extension before hitting the market (for the first time). There's a very good chance that we'll give up some of the best prospects we'll see in a while for one year of a player who could very easily get hurt during the season and then walk away. So. Incredibly. Stupid.

Despite all the stupid that goes into bringing in Donaldson, I actually think he's the smartest acquisition. A little easier to get in terms of talent traded for the opportunity to use what we are probably the most comfortable spending -- cash -- to fill a smart role on the team - a big hole in our lineup at a relatively premium position, with room to maneuver as he ages.
Last edited by Fat Strat on November 1 17, 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Farewell Friends »

I don't think Donaldson would cost an elite prospect, but do think he would be the smartest acquisition and would be a guy worthy of a five-year deal.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Fat Strat »

Farewell Friends wrote:I don't think Donaldson would cost an elite prospect, but do think he would be the smartest acquisition and would be a guy worthy of a five-year deal.
I don't see why he wouldn't. But, if we can get him for less than Reyes +, then that just makes him an even smarter get.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Popeye_Card »

We have stupid amounts of money available. I'd rather just parlay that into getting Stanton's age 28 to 37 years, rather than giving up (probably) better prospects to get Donaldson's age 32 to ~38 years at similarly stupid money.

IF Stanton would approve a deal to the Cardinals.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

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That's a 5 year deal that's right smack in the middle of his decline phase.

I don't know if Donaldson will fall off a cliff like Peralta did, but we can't expect him to be the anchor of our offense from his age 32-37 seasons.

This also assumes that the Blue Jays want to trade him.

Toronto went from a team with a scary good middle of the order a few years ago to a team who had one plyer with an OPS+ over 130 - Donaldson.

The smart thing for Toronto would be to start a rebuild and trade Dondaldson for prospects, but he's their one big piece on offense and they might be stubborn enough to think that a healthy Tulo/Donaldson and a few more pieces will get them good enough to content in 2018.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by go birds »

Popeye_Card wrote:We have stupid amounts of money available. I'd rather just parlay that into getting Stanton's age 28 to 37 years, rather than giving up (probably) better prospects to get Donaldson's age 32 to ~38 years at similarly stupid money.

IF Stanton would approve a deal to the Cardinals.
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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Fat Strat »

Popeye_Card wrote:We have stupid amounts of money available. I'd rather just parlay that into getting Stanton's age 28 to 37 years, rather than giving up (probably) better prospects to get Donaldson's age 32 to ~38 years at similarly stupid money.

IF Stanton would approve a deal to the Cardinals.
IF the Cards are even interested. I can't get started talking about Stanton because I just don't believe that Cards are interested in taking on the salary that they'll likely have to take on to keep him. I agree with you, if I was running the team, but I'm trying to think like the Cards here.

I think the Cards will show a great deal of interest in Stanton and almost all of that will be a smokescreen to show they might have options and can maybe (doubtfully) work a slightly better deal with another team for another, cheaper player.

Also, if we're really honest, I think the Cards will trade some of their OF'ers for a young closer prospect they like -- mostly to clear roster space and fill our biggest hole -- and then they'll cast about for an offensive upgrade for awhile before settling in with the guys they already have. Because we like things easy and smart and there's nothing but a bunch of stupid out there on the market.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

So on board with Donaldson, even if it's just this year and you wanna go big for Machado the following year.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Farewell Friends »

Fat Strat wrote:I don't see why he wouldn't.
He's a rental and rentals typically don't command elite prospects. VEB used the Heyward trade as an example, which would be Gyorko + a B prospect. And before anyone states the obvious about Heyward and Donaldson's offensive differences, Heyward was six years younger and wasn't yet a complete zero offensively.

Unrelated, but a decline phase Donaldson is still an elite-to borderline-elite player. They can move him to first when they sign Kris Bryant in four years.

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Re: Josh Donaldson & Only Being Mostly Stupid

Post by Popeye_Card »

Fat Strat wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:We have stupid amounts of money available. I'd rather just parlay that into getting Stanton's age 28 to 37 years, rather than giving up (probably) better prospects to get Donaldson's age 32 to ~38 years at similarly stupid money.

IF Stanton would approve a deal to the Cardinals.
IF the Cards are even interested. I can't get started talking about Stanton because I just don't believe that Cards are interested in taking on the salary that they'll likely have to take on to keep him. I agree with you, if I was running the team, but I'm trying to think like the Cards here.
Stanton is likely not a Cardinal type move. But neither is a Donaldson. When is the last time the Cardinals have traded for an high-level rental player in their 30's, with a plan for extending him?
McGwire?

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