Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

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TimeForGuinness
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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by TimeForGuinness »

JL21 wrote:By the way, if we do the same math for Yelich (4.0/4.1 Steamer/Depth Charts), gift him about 20% bonus value, with maybe only slight age regression at the end of his current 4-year deal... you're talking about 18ish wins ($189M value) for $45M. That's some $140M of surplus value. That's... going to take a haul. Reyes gets you halfway there. Reyes + Kelly or Weaver + one of the fringe 100 guys might be able to get it done.

But it is the Marlins and you can't take anything for granted with that team.
Piscotty, Wong, Alcantara, Flaherty for Yelich

Marlins need cost controlled OF, 2B, and young pitching.

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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by Fat Strat »

TimeForGuinness wrote:
JL21 wrote:By the way, if we do the same math for Yelich (4.0/4.1 Steamer/Depth Charts), gift him about 20% bonus value, with maybe only slight age regression at the end of his current 4-year deal... you're talking about 18ish wins ($189M value) for $45M. That's some $140M of surplus value. That's... going to take a haul. Reyes gets you halfway there. Reyes + Kelly or Weaver + one of the fringe 100 guys might be able to get it done.

But it is the Marlins and you can't take anything for granted with that team.
Piscotty, Wong, Alcantara, Flaherty for Yelich

Marlins need cost controlled OF, 2B, and young pitching.
I think you could put Martinez in there for Piscotty. Maybe Grichuk. You're right though that talent would be leaving our MLB roster to make this deal. With Gyorko and Carpenter around, I have no problem trading Wong.

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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

The Marlins may also have more interest in prospects that are farther away from the majors since they won’t be competing for several years.

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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by Fat Strat »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:The Marlins may also have more interest in prospects that are farther away from the majors since they won’t be competing for several years.
True also. I think a likely package for Yelich would be two MLB players (some combo of Wong, Wacha, Kelly, Weaver + Grichuk, Martinez), one MLB ready prospect (Bader, Flaherty, Alcantara, O'Neil), one AA or lower MiLB prospect.

Take the upper end MLB options out for Ozuna.

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JL21
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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

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Yeah, who knows, really. I would imagine at least part of the reason their Stanton return was so far down in the minors is that they were hamstrung by Stanton's NTC leverage and his contract. In other words, I'm not so sure they were consciously choosing to get lower level prospects to delay contention or whatever. I would bet they just had to choose their prospect warts, and they opted for high reward/high risk instead of a higher level/low ceiling package.

The way they've been operating is a total wild card in this whole scenario and it's really hard to pin down WTF they're doing.

They have Starlin Castro for 2B unless they flip him. They might want Wong instead of Castro, but it's far from assured, nor do I want the Cardinals including him anyway. Either way, whether they prefer Wong or Castro, they're going to have to have a 2B with some salary commitment. Given their goal of cutting salary, they probably aren't going to want Piscotty. You could force Jose Martinez in there if you want, or Grichuk- both reasonable options for the Marlins. You're a lot more likely to make headway with them with the pitchers, and more likely the minor league guys. Emphasizing MLB talent in a Yelich or Ozuna deal, added to that roster is deck chairs on the Titanic.

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go birds
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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by go birds »

Hey rafi—welcome aboard. If you do jump on the bandwagon, be prepared to be disappointed in much newer funner ways

cardsfantx
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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by cardsfantx »

go birds wrote:Hey rafi—welcome aboard. If you do jump on the bandwagon, be prepared to be disappointed in much newer funner ways

lol yep!!

going from a team that always claims they don't have money, to a team that boasts they do have money and are going to spend it!...but then don't...

Rafi
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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by Rafi »

Thanks for the welcome guys! Lol Im used to the heartbreak so no worries. If the Cards get Ozuna do you guys think they’d try to extend him now? That’s something I think has to be taken into account when thinking about the package. If the plan is to lock him up it’s understandable to give up the pitching. If not it’s scary to potentially give up a pair of starters + more for just two years.

A negative on extending him is that his agent is Boras.

TimeForGuinness
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Re: Cardinals/Marlins Offseason Dance - Stanton Says Nope

Post by TimeForGuinness »

JL21 wrote:Yeah, who knows, really. I would imagine at least part of the reason their Stanton return was so far down in the minors is that they were hamstrung by Stanton's NTC leverage and his contract. In other words, I'm not so sure they were consciously choosing to get lower level prospects to delay contention or whatever. I would bet they just had to choose their prospect warts, and they opted for high reward/high risk instead of a higher level/low ceiling package.

The way they've been operating is a total wild card in this whole scenario and it's really hard to pin down WTF they're doing.

They have Starlin Castro for 2B unless they flip him. They might want Wong instead of Castro, but it's far from assured, nor do I want the Cardinals including him anyway. Either way, whether they prefer Wong or Castro, they're going to have to have a 2B with some salary commitment. Given their goal of cutting salary, they probably aren't going to want Piscotty. You could force Jose Martinez in there if you want, or Grichuk- both reasonable options for the Marlins. You're a lot more likely to make headway with them with the pitchers, and more likely the minor league guys. Emphasizing MLB talent in a Yelich or Ozuna deal, added to that roster is deck chairs on the Titanic.
Ah, I forgot about Castro coming back the other way.

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