Age 30+ Free Agents
- 33anda3rd
- Replies Authoritatively
- Posts: 8418
- Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
- Location: Chicago, IL
Age 30+ Free Agents
Nobody Wants Baseball's 30-Something Free Agents Anymore
Great read, and IMO really explains a lot about the state of baseball right now, which I think is not a great state for MLB as a whole.
Great read, and IMO really explains a lot about the state of baseball right now, which I think is not a great state for MLB as a whole.
-
- Everyday Player
- Posts: 404
- Joined: August 30 06, 5:03 am
- Location: down the street from the Washington Expos
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
Man, this just screams "low hanging fruit" and maybe even "new market inefficiency"
- mikechamp
- Hall Of Famer
- Posts: 10132
- Joined: April 17 06, 5:05 pm
- Location: Southwestern Illinois
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
They just need a metric for experience and knowledge.
^ My sarcasm font color
I actually concur with the previous 2 posters.
^ My sarcasm font color
I actually concur with the previous 2 posters.
- 33anda3rd
- Replies Authoritatively
- Posts: 8418
- Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
- Location: Chicago, IL
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
The only way it can become a new market inefficiency is if a player isn't getting overpaid, and that's a two-way street.
The Rays have a laughable $8.9MM committed to salary for the upcoming year, before arb-eligibles. Only one guy, Kiermaier, is on a contract currently. The White Sox, outside of arb-eligibles, have like $12MM committed to 2019. There's plenty of money for teams like them--and a lot of teams like them with lots to spend--to give Josh Donaldson a 3-year / $42 million contract. Someone should step up and offer that. But here's where the two-way street comes in: Josh Donaldson and his agent should take that money and run, the first offer that comes through. Because GMs nowadays don't give Josh Donaldsons 6-year or 6-figure deals. You're 32 and your OBP has dropped 50 points in two seasons? You should be happy to get 3/$42MM.
The Rays have a laughable $8.9MM committed to salary for the upcoming year, before arb-eligibles. Only one guy, Kiermaier, is on a contract currently. The White Sox, outside of arb-eligibles, have like $12MM committed to 2019. There's plenty of money for teams like them--and a lot of teams like them with lots to spend--to give Josh Donaldson a 3-year / $42 million contract. Someone should step up and offer that. But here's where the two-way street comes in: Josh Donaldson and his agent should take that money and run, the first offer that comes through. Because GMs nowadays don't give Josh Donaldsons 6-year or 6-figure deals. You're 32 and your OBP has dropped 50 points in two seasons? You should be happy to get 3/$42MM.
- MAGA
- All-Star
- Posts: 1323
- Joined: November 10 16, 10:22 am
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
Widespread Sabermetrics is the worst thing to happen to players. Its only benefitted ownership.
The league’s economic structure needs changed wholesale. I don’t think the people on this site would disagree that a guy like Harper could take 20 mil less on his next deal if it meant paying minor league players liveable wages. Though I’m sure some would say ownership could swing both easily.
- I think players need to hit FA sooner. Though this could backfire for some but hitting FA at 30+ means less $. And very few guys get a shot early like Harper and Machado. Maybe chop off a year of arb.
- Higher league minimum pay.
- a bonus for getting shuttled back and forth between majors and minors.
- owners pay for their own stadiums. If they don’t, they’re obligated to spend a certain amount each year on payroll or cut checks to the other teams.
- higher bonuses for players that are in the low rounds of the draft. Guys in the 40th round getting $1000 to uproot their life for the next 2-3 years is rough. Yeah, they can turn it down, but would you? Being from a small town, I’ve heard some stories of kids being used up. Traveling on buses making zero cash only to get cut after blowing out their UCL. No bonus. 3 years they could’ve gone to trade school. Maybe a GI bill sort of thing would be nice here.
- perhaps even a salary cap if it meant tax payers not subsidizing stadiums and players getting more $ early.
A wealth redistribution is needed. I think it would make the sport healthier and make the minors better too.
The league’s economic structure needs changed wholesale. I don’t think the people on this site would disagree that a guy like Harper could take 20 mil less on his next deal if it meant paying minor league players liveable wages. Though I’m sure some would say ownership could swing both easily.
- I think players need to hit FA sooner. Though this could backfire for some but hitting FA at 30+ means less $. And very few guys get a shot early like Harper and Machado. Maybe chop off a year of arb.
- Higher league minimum pay.
- a bonus for getting shuttled back and forth between majors and minors.
- owners pay for their own stadiums. If they don’t, they’re obligated to spend a certain amount each year on payroll or cut checks to the other teams.
- higher bonuses for players that are in the low rounds of the draft. Guys in the 40th round getting $1000 to uproot their life for the next 2-3 years is rough. Yeah, they can turn it down, but would you? Being from a small town, I’ve heard some stories of kids being used up. Traveling on buses making zero cash only to get cut after blowing out their UCL. No bonus. 3 years they could’ve gone to trade school. Maybe a GI bill sort of thing would be nice here.
- perhaps even a salary cap if it meant tax payers not subsidizing stadiums and players getting more $ early.
A wealth redistribution is needed. I think it would make the sport healthier and make the minors better too.
-
- "I could totally eat a pig butt, if smoked correctly!"
- Posts: 27273
- Joined: August 5 08, 11:24 am
- Location: Thinking of the Children
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
Seems like every players union is upset with their current deals. I remember 10 years ago, mlb seemed like a great deal for the players. Now it’s apparently being exploited. NFL doesn’t guarantee contracts. NHL players don’t make much comparatively. Idk about nba but I wouldn’t say that mlb is in a bad place even if owners started to understand the aging curve, finally. But it seems like this board for the past decade has railed against big contracts for 30+ year old players and now front offices are as well. Which is just smart. Do players need to make more prior to becoming a FA to compensate for the loss of income on the back end? Sure. I agree. But I wouldn’t say baseball is in a bad place. Ebbs and tides and whatnot but the lawsuits like Bryant’s will help prevent delaying prospects from advancing.
Online
- Radbird
- There's someone in my head but it's not me
- Posts: 57428
- Joined: April 18 06, 5:08 pm
- Location: LF Bleachers @ Busch II
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
Interesting that a 23-y/o would retweet.
- go birds
- -go birds
- Posts: 31896
- Joined: February 5 10, 9:54 am
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
yea not sure if hes throwing shade, but flaherty shouldnt have to worry about his organization fiddling with service time.
the cards historically have a pretty good track record of not manipulating time and extending their young players, almost to a fault.
the cards historically have a pretty good track record of not manipulating time and extending their young players, almost to a fault.
- 33anda3rd
- Replies Authoritatively
- Posts: 8418
- Joined: April 7 13, 9:45 am
- Location: Chicago, IL
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
Sabermetrics hasn't been bad for all the players, that's a blanket statement that just doesn't work. Take away sabermetrics and the Cubs don't overpay Hayward based on the analytics they ran on his glove. Plenty of other cases.
The challenge with making players free agents earlier is that in an uncapped league we will end up with the kind of thing that people have always accused the Yankees and other big money teams of: all the talent on just a few teams. The thing no one understood or wanted to speak to for a long time was that spending big money on guys in their 30s is what derailed the last Yankees dynasty after a run of success with mostly homegrown talent at the core. Give the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs the ability to start buying 26-27 year-olds, while prying those 27 year-olds away from the team that drafts them sooner, and we will never see another Kansas City Royals championship.
MLB players have long had one advantage over the other leagues: Players getting overpaid in their decline years. Charles Barkley's salary peaked in his age 32 season. Jordan at 34 in his final Bulls season. Tim Duncan's salary peaked at 33. Most NFL players are long done by that age. But MLB has long been the league where guys make the most money of their career in the twilight years when they are not doing their teams any good. That is a good cultural change for the league, when teams stop throwing money away on washed up players or former all-stars who are now B-C grade players. The thing to do now is shift the money from the owners to the players who are playing well so that we don't have orgs fielding teams of scrubs to collect revenue sharing while not competing.
The challenge with making players free agents earlier is that in an uncapped league we will end up with the kind of thing that people have always accused the Yankees and other big money teams of: all the talent on just a few teams. The thing no one understood or wanted to speak to for a long time was that spending big money on guys in their 30s is what derailed the last Yankees dynasty after a run of success with mostly homegrown talent at the core. Give the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs the ability to start buying 26-27 year-olds, while prying those 27 year-olds away from the team that drafts them sooner, and we will never see another Kansas City Royals championship.
MLB players have long had one advantage over the other leagues: Players getting overpaid in their decline years. Charles Barkley's salary peaked in his age 32 season. Jordan at 34 in his final Bulls season. Tim Duncan's salary peaked at 33. Most NFL players are long done by that age. But MLB has long been the league where guys make the most money of their career in the twilight years when they are not doing their teams any good. That is a good cultural change for the league, when teams stop throwing money away on washed up players or former all-stars who are now B-C grade players. The thing to do now is shift the money from the owners to the players who are playing well so that we don't have orgs fielding teams of scrubs to collect revenue sharing while not competing.
- Joe Shlabotnik
- Hall Of Famer
- Posts: 23104
- Joined: October 12 06, 2:21 pm
- Location: Baseball Ref Bullpen
- Contact:
Re: Age 30+ Free Agents
Easy solution: Pay every player on some WAR-like number they produce each month on top of a league minimum. Make sure the number includes value for sacrifices, moving runners, intentional walks, etc.
Not-easy side effect: Can you imagine the pressure on official scorers and managers in that scenario?
Not-easy side effect: Can you imagine the pressure on official scorers and managers in that scenario?