All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread)

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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jagtrader wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:Just to be clear, what exactly are we arguing here? Whether Archer is an upgrade for the Cardinals rotation? Of course he would be. He slots in at 1/2 with Carlos Martinez, and pushes either Wacha or Wainwright to the bullpen.

Or are we arguing if Archer's cost of acquisition is worth pursuing him over other options? If the cost to acquire is more than two of Reyes/Weaver/Flaherty/Kelly, I'm going to prefer other options. Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta both could slot in at that same 1/2 spot in the rotation, and only cost cash--which we have plenty of. Then you get to hang on to Reyes, Flaherty, and Weaver to see how they all pan out to fill in that back of the rotation.
I'm talking about the Cardinals pooling their resources for better players instead of spending $14-15 million and two roster spots on Mikolas and Gregerson. That morphed into a debate about whether Archer is overrated.
Well I don't think everyone was talking to you then. Because most of us were debating the merits of a Flaherty+Weaver+Kelly+Grichuk package for Archer+Colome.

That's not about pooling financial resources. That's about reducing your pool of exciting pitching prospects from 3 down to 1, plus giving up possibly the best catcher prospect in MLB. That's the kind of package you give up for a Chris Sale, not a Chris Archer IMO.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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All those guys are more valuable (due to age and control) than they are exciting, imo.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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Magneto2.0 wrote:All those guys are more valuable (due to age and control) than they are exciting, imo.
Well, Reyes is exciting. The thought of if he pans out to pair with Martinez at the top, and Flaherty and Weaver both pan out to fill out the middle--that's one hell of a rotation. If Weaver develops into a Dan Haren type and he's our 4th best starter, that excites me significantly more than Chris Archer's xFIP.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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Fat Strat wrote:
Farewell Friends wrote:Then how did a trade of Evan Longoria morph into a debate about Chris Archer?
This is the Rays thread. The Longoria thread is down the board a little.
I know, but it's all running together and somehow the Cardinals have screwed up again. I don't think they're done with the rotation, despite all the overreaction to their comments. But I'm on the fence about Archer. I can see the logic from both sides.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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Popeye_Card wrote:
Magneto2.0 wrote:All those guys are more valuable (due to age and control) than they are exciting, imo.
Well, Reyes is exciting. The thought of if he pans out to pair with Martinez at the top, and Flaherty and Weaver both pan out to fill out the middle--that's one hell of a rotation. If Weaver develops into a Dan Haren type and he's our 4th best starter, that excites me significantly more than Chris Archer's xFIP.
I still think Reyes' BB rate makes him extremely risky, but the good thing (if you're looking for silver linings) in his TJ recovery is that we'll get to watch him out of the pen rather than the rotation for most of a season. Should have a real good idea of what his BB rate will do to his effectiveness in the majors by the end of a season where we're not really counting on him in a starter's role.

The rest of the guys all have the capacity to be solid starters, with Weaver having the most upside of the current non-Reyes crop. But, we should learn our lessons from Martinez, Miller, Rosenthal, and Wacha. There was a day when we thought we had potentially 4 #1-#2 starters coming up through the system. None of those guys reached that level. Martinez is a solid #2, but he does not look like an elite starter. Wacha is a solid #3-#4. Rosenthal never started a game for us and Miller is probably on his way out of baseball. Of that list, Miller was probably the guy with the highest floor coming in.

We need to temper expectations for the guys coming up because they're not even as good as the crop we had 4-5 years ago. Martinez > Reyes, if only slightly*. Miller > Weaver. Rosenthal > Alcantara (traded away, of course). Wacha > Flaherty. They're all pretty close in terms of prospect rankings and scouting, but our last major SP class should help us gain perspective on the current SP class.


* Martinez > Reyes - there's no doubt that Martinez had #1 potential and was ranked comparably to Reyes -- a top 10 prospect and one of the best SP prospects in the game. Reyes' stuff is viewed as more electric than Martinez's was (though scouts raved about his movement), but Martinez displayed significantly better command and control coming up. Martinez's question marks came only from his frame, not his pitching. Reyes' question marks surround that BB total, which is a much bigger red flag than size. So, Martinez, as a prospect, gets a very slight edge for me over Reyes, but I won't quibble with anyone if they disagree.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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Fat Strat wrote:* Martinez > Reyes - there's no doubt that Martinez had #1 potential and was ranked comparably to Reyes -- a top 10 prospect and one of the best SP prospects in the game.
Martinez never got higher than No. 27 by BA. I would guess it had to do with his size and the fact that his results didn't exactly match his stuff, but I don't know. The excitement was definitely higher for Martinez, though. Reyes's expectations seem to be tempered by his control issues and the fact that -- as you mentioned -- we have developed prospect fatigue, i.e. seeing so many names come and go and rarely hitting their ceiling.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

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I realize that having each of these guys pan out is unrealistic. However having three of them around gives you a better chance at at least one hitting their ceiling. You give up two of them for Archer, and then he goes and blows out his shoulder or just doesn’t turn that corner in the NL like you hoped, and that would be a crusher.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Popeye_Card wrote:
Magneto2.0 wrote:All those guys are more valuable (due to age and control) than they are exciting, imo.
Well, Reyes is exciting. The thought of if he pans out to pair with Martinez at the top, and Flaherty and Weaver both pan out to fill out the middle--that's one hell of a rotation. If Weaver develops into a Dan Haren type and he's our 4th best starter, that excites me significantly more than Chris Archer's xFIP.
I wasn’t counting Reyes. I was looking at the Flaherty/Weaver/Kelly/Grichuk post right above

I think Reyes is super exciting. The other ones I can see holding on to but I’d rather consolidate into a big prize but I see the other argument.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Fat Strat wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:
Magneto2.0 wrote:All those guys are more valuable (due to age and control) than they are exciting, imo.
Well, Reyes is exciting. The thought of if he pans out to pair with Martinez at the top, and Flaherty and Weaver both pan out to fill out the middle--that's one hell of a rotation. If Weaver develops into a Dan Haren type and he's our 4th best starter, that excites me significantly more than Chris Archer's xFIP.
I still think Reyes' BB rate makes him extremely risky, but the good thing (if you're looking for silver linings) in his TJ recovery is that we'll get to watch him out of the pen rather than the rotation for most of a season. Should have a real good idea of what his BB rate will do to his effectiveness in the majors by the end of a season where we're not really counting on him in a starter's role.

The rest of the guys all have the capacity to be solid starters, with Weaver having the most upside of the current non-Reyes crop. But, we should learn our lessons from Martinez, Miller, Rosenthal, and Wacha. There was a day when we thought we had potentially 4 #1-#2 starters coming up through the system. None of those guys reached that level. Martinez is a solid #2, but he does not look like an elite starter. Wacha is a solid #3-#4. Rosenthal never started a game for us and Miller is probably on his way out of baseball. Of that list, Miller was probably the guy with the highest floor coming in.

We need to temper expectations for the guys coming up because they're not even as good as the crop we had 4-5 years ago. Martinez > Reyes, if only slightly*. Miller > Weaver. Rosenthal > Alcantara (traded away, of course). Wacha > Flaherty. They're all pretty close in terms of prospect rankings and scouting, but our last major SP class should help us gain perspective on the current SP class.


* Martinez > Reyes - there's no doubt that Martinez had #1 potential and was ranked comparably to Reyes -- a top 10 prospect and one of the best SP prospects in the game. Reyes' stuff is viewed as more electric than Martinez's was (though scouts raved about his movement), but Martinez displayed significantly better command and control coming up. Martinez's question marks came only from his frame, not his pitching. Reyes' question marks surround that BB total, which is a much bigger red flag than size. So, Martinez, as a prospect, gets a very slight edge for me over Reyes, but I won't quibble with anyone if they disagree.
I think Reyes is unquestionably more highly regarded than Martinez ever was, I agree with everything else. Reyes was the number 1 Prospect in baseball period not too long ago.

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Re: All Things Rays (Previously The Alex Colome Trade Thread

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Farewell Friends wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:* Martinez > Reyes - there's no doubt that Martinez had #1 potential and was ranked comparably to Reyes -- a top 10 prospect and one of the best SP prospects in the game.
Martinez never got higher than No. 27 by BA. I would guess it had to do with his size and the fact that his results didn't exactly match his stuff, but I don't know. The excitement was definitely higher for Martinez, though. Reyes's expectations seem to be tempered by his control issues and the fact that -- as you mentioned -- we have developed prospect fatigue, i.e. seeing so many names come and go and rarely hitting their ceiling.
I think more fan excitement because of the group he came in with, but Reyes is seen as a much higher talent. I remember the thought for Martinez being a number 2, fringe number 1. Pre Tommy John people were saying Reyes might be the best pitcher in baseball in a couple years. The injury kinda slowed down those projections and now they’re more modest but still high.

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