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 Post subject: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 11:24 am 
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-go birds
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I wanted to break this off from the other threads and give it its own thread.

I said earlier in trade season that im not gonna be fully invested in this offseason--i just don't have the heart anymore. I said if we got stanton, great, if not, oh well and i still feel that way because lets be honest...the chances of him coming were very slim to begin with.

With all that said, i think i will be pretty disappointed if machado isn't a card next year.

Why? Because, if reports of him being available are true, the cards need to make a run at their next franchise player. It's like the perfect storm as far as fit is concerned. Almost reminiscent of Scott Rolen....a gold glove 3B (or SS) with a great bat.

This needs to happen and the cards should pay whatever the cost.

So, GRB, let's say machado agrees to a sign and trade....what are you offering prospect-wise and what contract are you signing him to?

If it is just a one year deal, with hopes of extending him during the season, what are you offering then?

Me? For a sign+trade, i'm giving whatever prospects they want--Reyes/hudson/Carlson is probably a good start. Contract? I would not hesitate to give him a 10y/300m contract.

For the rental side...i'd have to think hard on that...something to the effect of Hudson or Flaherty/DeJong would probably be the start, but it wouldn't get much deeper than that.

What say you, GRB?


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 11:29 am 
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People keep talking about it but when is the last time a sign and trade was executed with a player of Machado's skill level?

It feels like every marquee player tests the market and Machado, a 26-year old stud infielder, the best infielder that will be available next offseason, would never sign an extension before testing that market.

I'm not selling the farm for a player for one season no matter how good he is because I think there's a zero percent chance he'd extend before he tests a market that will likely price him out of what the Cardinals will pay.

I don't think you get one year of Machado without giving up two of your top 3 prospects plus and I think Reyes has to be part of that package to get the conversation started.


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 11:32 am 
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-go birds
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whether or not he would do it is beside the point. I'm asking what GRB would be comfortable with offering.

But to your point, you don't $300m+ is a fair offer?


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 11:38 am 
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Sure, but it's not my money and it's not a deal I see the Cardinals making.


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 12:39 pm 
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go birds wrote:

With all that said, i think i will be pretty disappointed if machado isn't a card next year.


I think you are really setting yourself up for disappointment then. While the Cardinals certainly have the cash and prospects to make something happen, there are a few pretty big factors working against a deal:

* There is virtually 0% chance that Machado signs a deal prior to testing free agency. Any talk of “sign and trade” is wishful thinking. That’s going to make any team nervous to give up too much for him in a trade.
* While I like Machado’s game, he doesn’t strike me as a personality that the Cardinals generally pursue. You can argue if that is right or wrong for the Cardinals to feel that way—but the reality is that they don’t normally go after guys like that.
* There are some parts of Machado’s game that make you nervous after the next few seasons. The defense is great, and comes at positions where we could use it. I personally think he’s likely a good defensive SS for the next few seasons, and then a 3B after that. Probably still a good one, but that does diminish his value. His bat I’m still a bit wary of. Walk rate is mediocre. Power has been good for the past few seasons, but is not elite enough to carry by itself if his average plummets. In other words I like him for now, but I’m very wary for a 10 year type committment.

Anyway, I like Machado, and I’d be very happy if the Cardinals got him. I’d be willing to go further for him in a prospect package than I would for a Donaldson rental. But just being realistic—I think the Cardinals will look into him, but he’s just not the deal and player we typically go after.


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 12:41 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 12:43 pm 
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Popeye_Card wrote:
go birds wrote:

With all that said, i think i will be pretty disappointed if machado isn't a card next year.


I think you are really setting yourself up for disappointment then. While the Cardinals certainly have the cash and prospects to make something happen, there are a few pretty big factors working against a deal:

* There is virtually 0% chance that Machado signs a deal prior to testing free agency. Any talk of “sign and trade” is wishful thinking. That’s going to make any team nervous to give up too much for him in a trade.


^^^ This ^^^

IMO, "Machado or I'm disappointed in this off-season" is a masochistic stance to take.


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 12:43 pm 
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I'm fine with that. I think the one-year rental price for Donaldson would be much more palatable and appropriate if we're going to deal for a 3B.


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 1:04 pm 
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I'll be disappointed because opportunities like this (again assuming reports are true) are not going to present themselves very often.

The cardinals have the money and prospect to make something like that work.

getting a guy like old man donaldson is not the ideal solution imo. but that's just me


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 Post subject: Re: Machado
PostPosted: December 10 17, 1:21 pm 
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go birds wrote:
I'll be disappointed because opportunities like this (again assuming reports are true) are not going to present themselves very often.

The cardinals have the money and prospect to make something like that work.

getting a guy like old man donaldson is not the ideal solution imo. but that's just me


Donaldson requires the same kind of deal. Significant prospects moved and then hoping for a sign or getting him back in FA.

But, that’s also when players of that kind of caliber are available. Elite players don’t get moved when they have multiple years left remaining on their first contract. It’s the exact situation right now with Ozuna versus Yelich. If we want someone With elite talent we are going to have to take an elite risk. Something like what we did with Heyward. Or we are going to have to be happy with lesser talent.


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