Is Longoria an Upgrade?

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Fat Strat
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by Fat Strat »

JL21 wrote:
jagtrader wrote:It’s possible Gyorko’s not on a team that has Longoria.
Yeah, and at that point, I'm not sure I want that acquisition, unless it includes Archer or something. One of the benefits of Longoria is that it frees up Gyorko to be your super sub.
Completely agreed.

TimeForGuinness
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by TimeForGuinness »

JL21 wrote:It kind of depends on what else they'd do with the infield. Garcia, Wong, Marp, Gyorko, and DeJong are not going to get you 2800 PAs. Subtract Longo from that group, you'll make up a little bit of the lost Longoria production just from more playing time by the other guys (DeJong, Wong, and Gyorko specifically). But you're still probably going to have to fill in 400 more PAs from an outside source, whether it's a combo of guys like Breyvic Valera, Edmundo Sosa, more 1B playing time for Jose Martinez... or you go get some random quad-A type infielder.

Let's pro-rate it out this way...

Marp, 625
Wong, 475
DeJong, 550
Gyorko, 475
Garcia, 225
Martinez, 150
Then replacement level for the missing 300 PAs.

Marp: 2.72 WAR
Wong: 1.82
DeJong: 2.28
Gyorko: 1.71
Garcia: 0.25
Martinez: 0.26
Replacement: 0.0

9.04 total unless you find some way to get more production out of those 300 replacement PAs.
So you get a bump of ~2 WAR by adding Longoria, but it's still a step back from last year. I'm assuming Machado gives you a pretty sizeable bump and gets you above 2017 by about ~1 WAR?

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JL21
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by JL21 »

Machado pretty much launches it into orbit. His Steamer projection is 6.2 WAR over 665 PAs. We'd given Longoria 650 at 3.17 wins. So... yeah. That's a 3-win bump over the Longo version, and a 2-win bump over last year.

Now... Steamer's projection for Machado is awfully optimistic. But 6.2 isn't exactly crazy for Manny. He's done that or better 3 out of his 5 years and he's still very young.

TimeForGuinness
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by TimeForGuinness »

JL21 wrote:Machado pretty much launches it into orbit. His Steamer projection is 6.2 WAR over 665 PAs. We'd given Longoria 650 at 3.17 wins. So... yeah. That's a 3-win bump over the Longo version, and a 2-win bump over last year.

Now... Steamer's projection for Machado is awfully optimistic. But 6.2 isn't exactly crazy for Manny. He's done that or better 3 out of his 5 years and he's still very young.
So your final point is Machado at SS and Longoria at 3B....get it done Mo!

Padsfs
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by Padsfs »

Popeye_Card wrote:Having a stable WAR outlook from 3B allows you to get a bad season or two out of those 3, instead of relying upon them.
This is exactly right. It's also good as it keeps Carpenter from having to shift around like the last two years to make up for the bad/injured seasons (including Peralta and Diaz there)

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jagtrader
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by jagtrader »

I agree. Carpenter should be a 1B.

Warning
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Re: Is Longoria an Upgrade?

Post by Warning »

I'm really not a fan of acquiring Longo because of his age and likely decline as the projections show. However something has to be said for changing scenery from that awful pit of a stadium that is half full that they have in Tampa to playing in a beautiful sold out stadium in the middle of a (hopeful) playoff race.

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