Pitching Staff 2018 thread

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

Magneto2.0 wrote:

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Jocephus
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

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They lost three. They added three. Math says they're set, especially with Tuivailala out of options. Now, Norris being on a one-year deal means he could be dismissed if someone outpitches him, and if that is one of the young guys that storms into the picture or fills a role that Matheny would prefer to carry. As of right now, you've got Leone, Gregerson, and now Norris funneling in, with Norris a bit of a flex as he comes into the season. The numbers game works out with Hudson, Hicks, Helsley as part of the group that offers arms that will push their way through the course of the year. This appears to be the approach the Cardinals are taking.
by Derrick Goold 2:35 PM

With the Norris add, what will the bullpen look like in April, assuming no injuries? Room for another mlb veteran or is this it?
by bh 2:26 PM

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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

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Sherriff could be the teams lefty specialist. Norris gives them the righthanded depth that you see in the others, so you might go with the older of the group or the one that is going to slip through waivers because he has before.
by Derrick Goold 3:05 PM

Who comes off the 40 man to make room for Bud? Looking at the current roster it has to be Josh Lucas, Mike Mayers, Ryan Sherriff or Rowan Wick right?
by Matt 3:04 PM

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Jocephus
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

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lukethedrifter
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

Post by lukethedrifter »

Miklasz tweeted
Goodness... what a rotation the @memphisredbirds have going for them this season. I think Flaherty, Gant, Hudson, Gomber and Poncedeleon could form a solid rotation for several MLB teams (at least.)
What do you think?

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ZigZagCardsFan
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

Post by ZigZagCardsFan »

Probably better than what the Reds are throwing out there.

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lukethedrifter
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

Post by lukethedrifter »

There are 9 starting rotations with ERAs over 5. The White Sox? Barf.

Fat Strat
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

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I did a little digging today into Mikolas and his absurd .55 BB/9. Mikolas' success so far is largely predicated on that BB rate. He's not K'ing a large % of batters -- though his rate is acceptable. He's yielding HR's at a high rate, which was about what I expected. The HR's will probably drop a little and I could see the K's climbing a hair, but if that BB rate climbs back up to league average, Mikolas is going to become a pumpkin real fast.
to maintain an extremely low BB rate?

First, lets just say that his current rate is totally unsustainable. I sorted SP's from 2013-2017 by BB/9. Phil Hughes had a remarkable season where he posted a .69 BB/9 in '14, and had a WAR near 6. 17 others had a season where they kept their BB rate between 1.0 and 1.5 -- which is excellent. Most pitchers who had seasons with BB rates in that range had solid to great seasons by WAR measurement, but they were all over the map. Josh Tomlin somehow managed a .9 WAR while BB'ing just over 1 batter per nine. Clayton Kershaw, a terrible comp for Mikolas, managed a 7.6. Let me go out on a limb and say that Mikolas is going to land somewhere between Josh Tomlin and Clayton Kershaw. #boldpredictions

Conclusions? Just based on recent league history, it's likely that Mikolas' BB rate will get substantially worse than it currently is. 3x worse is highly likely, and even that would leave him as one of the best in the league at limiting walks.

So, based on his profile, how likely is it that Mikolas will remain one of the best in the league at limiting walks? Here we get into the meat of my research. Believe it or not, Mikolas routinely averaged below 2.5 BB/9 as a minor leaguer, mostly as a reliever, and was routinely in the mid 1's. (Incidentally, I haven't seen a pitcher with a stranger path to a major league rotation than Mikolas in a long time, but that's another post.) When he neared the majors, his BB rate climbed, and climaxed in his first few stints in the show.

Then he went to Japan. (Japan stats here.) In his three seasons in Japan, Mikolas was back to his old self, BB'ing at a 1.4, 2.3, and 1.1 rates for Yomiuri. His K rates climbed -- 6.6, 8.2, 9.0 -- which is significant in Japan since it's generally a more contact oriented league than the MLB. Mikolas somehow found a way to maintain a very low BB rate while increasing his K rate. That's why he's back in the majors.

Conclusions? So, in his younger years, Mikolas displayed elite control. He floundered, as we know, when he first reached the majors, but in Japan, he was back to displaying elite control and coupled that with improved strikeout #'s. I, personally, think it's highly likely that Mikolas continues to display elite -- yes, elite -- control. That won't make him an elite pitcher, though you have to be pleased with his current K rate, which reflects what he was doing in Japan more than his previous MLB experience. If he can keep the ball in the park, continue getting a high GB rate, and can hang on with his K rate, then we have a better than solid, worse than great starting pitcher on our hands.
Last edited by Fat Strat on May 3 18, 12:27 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Secret Weapon
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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

Post by Secret Weapon »

So Mikolas might be better than Darvish this year

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Re: Pitching Staff 2018 thread

Post by dmarx114 »

Secret Weapon wrote:So Mikolas might be better than Darvish this year
Long way to go, but I continue to feel good about this call.

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