Hosmer to San Diego

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Hoot45
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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

Post by Hoot45 »

sighyoung wrote:
Hoot45 wrote:
Famous Mortimer wrote:
CardsofSTL wrote:This deal reeks of collusion.
"Why yes, murder is a myth! I went out the other day and wasn't murdered, therefore no murders happen ever!"
We all know the Padres weren't invited to the collusion party. Everyone else is still colluding.
In fairness (and I'm not weighing in the collusion argument itself), but in economic theory, cartels and other forms of collusion are difficult to maintain because of the incentive to cheat. If firms collude to rig prices, there's always an incentive for one firm to lower prices on the sly and pick up all the business. OPEC has this problem policing its members and their production quotas because poorer countries such as Nigeria have an incentive to pump more oil to bring in money.

One of my economics professors, Douglass North (who later won a Nobel Prize) mentioned serving as an expert witness in a collusion case of price rigging in an industry, but he found that several of the firms were actually cheating on each other.

Collusion is more successful if it is out in the open--such as the identity of the OPEC nations and their published production quotas, which people can double-check. That's how OPEC has been successful for years and years, when most forms of collusion break down.

Mind you, I haven't solved the problem of whether baseball owners are colluding or attempting to collude. You could consider their actions wise business decisions, or you could see the analytics side of the industry creating a broadly shared set of information that empowers owners. Or you could see signings like those of Hosmer as moments when collusion breaks down. Who knows?
Yes! This is another reason why I think the collusion accusation is nonsense. I remember one of my economics professors (who did not win a Nobel Prize) took us through some mathematical probabilities of successful collusion or conspiracy. The takeaway was, unsurprisingly, that covert collusion is highly improbable. Actually achieving it in a bidder's market with 30 competitive entities, media scrutiny, and thousands of employees would be a miracle.

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Momo
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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

Post by Momo »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:
Momo wrote:
MrCrowesGarden wrote:I think he could be better than Belt. And it’s not a knock to say someone isn’t as good as Bellinger or Goldy.
Yeah, but who pays $140+ million for "could be"? He could be better than Belt (although he's never actually outperformed Belt, at least not in a healthy season), or he could be like...Matt Adams or Logan Morrison. Both options by the way being substantially cheaper.

Belt projects well, has a better track record and is actually a good 1B. Hosmer is worse in all three regards. Actually, not only is Belt a good 1B, he's one of the best 1B in the entire game, while Hosmer is quite literally one of the worst.

And sure, it's not a real knock to say "You're not better than the reigning Rookie of the Year." But it's weird to me to pay that kind of money to someone who projects to be a major league average player.

Like I've said, maybe they convinced him to do some swing changes or something. If they can get him to commit to that (which seems dubious), he could be legitimately great. If he's going to do what he's done for the past seven seasons, that contract is probably going to look like a mess.
I’m not sure why we would remove health from the equation.

Regardless, nothing about the contract is outrageous
Lol, what?

We'd remove it because on a per year basis, Belt is a far superior player. Last year is the only year that Hosmer has outperformed Belt, and the only reason he outperformed him was because Belt was limited to 100 games due to a concussion. Not only that, a major reason Hosmer had such a good year in the first place seems to have been BABIP driven. Based on that, certainly, I'd remove (or at least largely ignore) the anomalous year in which Belt was injured due to no fault of his own and look at their historical records which say that Hosmer is an inferior ballplayer on both sides of the ball.

And so yeah in that light, the contract is absolutely outrageous. I could see giving Hosmer a $50, $75 or even $100 million contract. But $144 million is absolutely outrageous for someone whose picture is next to the definition of "volatility" in the dictionary. It's absolutely outrageous for a team that didn't even have that positional need, and which forces them to stick their former 1B into a spot that he's terrible at, and further muddy their OF situation.

I've said it repeatedly, if they can get him to stop pounding the ball, this could work out. If they can't it could very well be a complete disaster, just like the last time they went "in" and thought they were ready in 2015.

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

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This isn't the first time Belt has had trouble staying healthy. I can tell you the stats for every game a guy doesn't play.

Nothing about that contract will be disastrous. The Padres have a $91 million payroll even after Hosmer. They've got plenty to spend with a steady stream of revenue, so if they can't figure out how to be competitive, maybe those general managers and owners should find a new industry. In addition as I beat this drum for a billionth time, any calculation that figures what a player's contract should be without taking into consideration the massive revenue spike the last 10 years is inherently flawed.

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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

Post by Magneto2.0 »

Also I think the Padres think Hosmer may have additional growth to his game. He’s still young enough that his next few seasons could be improvements on what he’s been. If he turns into a consistent 4-5 win player over at least the next 3 seasons, the contract won’t look so bad. When you sign these long term deals you have to project how you feel these players will grow not just how they performed in the past.

Not comparing the two, but there would be no logical reason to give Harper an all-time contract based off performance. In order to justify a 350 Million Dollar deal, you’d be doing projecting on what you think he’s gonna be not just what he’s done.

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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

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Hoot45 wrote:Actually achieving it in a bidder's market with 30 competitive entities, media scrutiny, and thousands of employees would be a miracle.
At least 10 of them aren't even pretending to be competitive entities.

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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

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MrCrowesGarden wrote:This isn't the first time Belt has had trouble staying healthy. I can tell you the stats for every game a guy doesn't play.

Nothing about that contract will be disastrous. The Padres have a $91 million payroll even after Hosmer. They've got plenty to spend with a steady stream of revenue, so if they can't figure out how to be competitive, maybe those general managers and owners should find a new industry. In addition as I beat this drum for a billionth time, any calculation that figures what a player's contract should be without taking into consideration the massive revenue spike the last 10 years is inherently flawed.
Lol.

He's been hit by pitches on four occasions, twice on his arms and twice in the head. It's hard to take anyone serious who calls that "trouble staying healthy." That's just some real [expletive] luck that he couldn't have really changed. It's not like the guy doesn't know how to run on the basepaths or can't field the ball without hurting himself

The best part is that even while having "trouble staying healthy," he's still clearly and vastly a better ballplayer than Eric Hosmer is. And here's a bonus: way cheaper to boot.

Potentially everything about that contract could be disastrous if he actually plays to his projections. All it takes is his .351 BABIP to crater, and for him to play to his career average of 0-2 WAR for 8 years and you've just landed yourself a pretty silly contract.

By 2020, when they should probably be aiming/expecting to contend, they're going to have a combined $41 million tied up in two players (Wil Meyers and an aging Eric Hosmer) that actually play the same position. That could actually be kind ridiculous unless they each have a major turnaround and consistent streak respectively.

Now, will the situation be some kind of Albert Pujols/Jason Heyward albatross or disaster? No. But it could certainly put a dent in their willingness to sign more FA help and extend their current farmhands.

Like I said, this is the team that had that disaster of a 2015 offseason under Preller where they traded Yasmani Grandal for Matt Kemp, Trea Turner for Wil Myers, a nice prospect package for Justin Upton, a mediocre package for Craig Kimbrel and then signed James Shields to a 4-year contract. And then ended up having to tear it down midseason because it didn't work at all.

I'll believe they know what they're doing when I see it.

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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

What was the last mega contract that prohibited a team from making moves to compete? Ryan Howard? So yeah nothing about that contract will be a disaster so I lol back at you.

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Momo
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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

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MrCrowesGarden wrote:What was the last mega contract that prohibited a team from making moves to compete? Ryan Howard? So yeah nothing about that contract will be a disaster so I lol back at you.
What a rebuttal.

Most teams that make megacontracts have the payroll directive to rebound from them, which is why Ellsbury doesn't hurt the Yankees or why Heyward can't kill the Cubs. It's also the reason why anything smaller than the A Tier of orgs tend to do their best to avoid those contracts when there are cheaper options elsewhere (particularly your own farm system). It's a very debatable move to tie up $40 million in 2020 on what are currently two very average players.

The funny thing is that almost all the players that come to mind who have been offered megacontracts in the past decade were significantly better players than Hosmer is. And yet you're somehow convinced that it's a good move for them.

Amazing insight you've offered on Hosmer and the Padres' FO.

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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

I'd say you've not read closely what I've said then. But, that's okay.

Hosmer is a risky move.
Hosmer might not be very good.
This contract won't sink the Padres.


All three statements are true.

The Padres aren't a small market team, they just choose to act like it.

I'm sure the point will again be missed.

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obucard
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Re: Hosmer to San Diego

Post by obucard »

MrCrowesGarden wrote:I'd say you've not read closely what I've said then. But, that's okay.

Hosmer is a risky move.
Hosmer might not be very good.
This contract won't sink the Padres.


All three statements are true.

The Padres aren't a small market team, they just choose to act like it.

I'm sure the point will again be missed.
Somewhere, Joe Morgan is confused.

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