How long do we wait?

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Momo
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Re: How long do we wait?

Post by Momo »

What are we theoretically waiting for? Max Schrock?

I guess you could replace Wong with him, but A) There's no guarantee that Schrock would be better and B) Wong isn't the main problem right now.

I think Wong was projected to be a 1.5-2 WAR player, and he's still projected to finish close to there. I know the strikeout looking last night probably angered people towards him again, but he's still managed to contribute positively towards the club since he can at least field. I'd be much more inclined to figure out what to do with Carp and Fowler first.
Fat Strat wrote:We're in mid-May now and Wong, Fowler and Carpenter are still terrible. Interestingly, Carpenter has managed his horrendous start while still having a LD% of 26%. It seems nearly impossible that his BABIP is so low. Wong and Folwer have been as bad as their slash lines indicate.

I can't remember a stretch this long when core, proven hitters on this club have been this unbelievably bad. Throw Ozuna in there, too, though his stats look more like a normal slump and rebound situation.
I don't agree with this at all.

Using BABIP as evidence that a guy is going to rebound isn't at all convincing when we're dealing with someone being shifted on as much as Carpenter. Yeah, he's not going to finish the season with a .183 BABIP, but I really think people are overstating the positive regression coming his way.

jagtrader
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Re: How long do we wait?

Post by jagtrader »

Carpenter was out of the lineup the last three games and Fowler two of the last three. Looks like they've stopped waiting, particularly against lefties. But Gyorko and Bader aren't going to provide what Carp and Fowler were expected to provide as everyday players.

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Re: How long do we wait?

Post by Fat Strat »

Momo wrote:I don't agree with this at all.

Using BABIP as evidence that a guy is going to rebound isn't at all convincing when we're dealing with someone being shifted on as much as Carpenter. Yeah, he's not going to finish the season with a .183 BABIP, but I really think people are overstating the positive regression coming his way.
Saying he'll be "fine" -- not "good" or "great" or "elite" -- and that "he'll never dig out of the hole he's created" is "overstating the positive regression coming his way"?

Should we ignore the proven connection between BABIP and LD%, not to mention the connection between Carpenter's BABIP and LD% throughout his career, because of shifting -- something that's also happened throughout his career? Just trying to figure out the part that you don't agree with at all.

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Momo
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Re: How long do we wait?

Post by Momo »

Fat Strat wrote:
Momo wrote:I don't agree with this at all.

Using BABIP as evidence that a guy is going to rebound isn't at all convincing when we're dealing with someone being shifted on as much as Carpenter. Yeah, he's not going to finish the season with a .183 BABIP, but I really think people are overstating the positive regression coming his way.
Saying he'll be "fine" -- not "good" or "great" or "elite" -- and that "he'll never dig out of the hole he's created" is "overstating the positive regression coming his way"?

Should we ignore the proven connection between BABIP and LD%, not to mention the connection between Carpenter's BABIP and LD% throughout his career, because of shifting -- something that's also happened throughout his career? Just trying to figure out the part that you don't agree with at all.
I don't believe he's going to be "fine," so yes, I think it's an overstatement. He's almost certainly not going to continue being horrific and nightmarish, but I severely doubt he's going to be "fine."

As for his prior career, you can't use the past without accounting for the change in how teams are approaching him. It's not, hypothetically, impossible to have a low BABIP if you're just pulling and lining everything into the shift. That's not luck, that's a calculated strategy being used by the opposition's defense.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: How long do we wait?

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Not that worried about Wong. Just needs that .340+ OBP to come back and I could not care less how his slugging is if he stays the best defensive 2B.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: How long do we wait?

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: How long do we wait?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Batting Wong 9th might help him a lot.

Worked well for Baez in the past.

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Re: How long do we wait?

Post by redbirdfan4 »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:He’s the best defensive 2B in the league currently.

You ride him out.

Fowler will be fine too. BABIP’d hard. Nothing else about his game has changed much.

Carpenter is the real concern.
Carpenter is starting to hit again, as I figured he would. Wong and Fowler are still not producing offensively. While Wong's defense is stellar, he is an offensive liability. For now, it should be Carpenter at 3rd, Munoz at Short, Gyorko at 2nd, and Martinez at 1st. If you want to put Wong in for defense late in a game, so be it, but try to arrange it so he doesn't bat. Outfield should be Bader, Pham, and Ozuna.

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