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PostPosted: March 7 19, 12:26 pm 
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baseball betting is almost 100% based on pitching matchups anyway


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PostPosted: March 10 19, 4:08 pm 
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InvincibleCakeEater wrote:
baseball betting is almost 100% based on pitching matchups anyway


That's a big part of it.

Also looking for good underdog situations. Any time a team is getting a run and a half as an underdog but you can find value--the opposing team is sitting two of their best offensive players, stuff like that--the underdog bets can be money-makers. Baseball still has the most parity of all sports and most MLB lines come off at 1.5 so a team that is usually outscored by a run a game like DET vs a team that wins by a run a game like CLE, if CLE is not playing Lindor and Ramirez on getaway day and DET is getting +166 on the money line and those 1.5 runs on the run line, then you bet DET even though the SP matchup is roughly neutral and CLE is at home.

Teams coming off shutouts are also a good bet. Even really bad team like MIA last year who only scores 3.66 Runs/Game, coming off a shutout, should cover a +1.5 as a 'dog more often than not, and if your volume is high enough and the price is good on your bets and you don't get stung by bad variance (you win the games where they're -130 but lose all of the +150s) you'll come out ahead. Last year MIA were shut out 14 times and were 6-7 straight up on games after a shutout (game 162 was a shutout so it's not 14) but that 6-7 is way better than their overall record and if those games were all as +1.5 'dogs that 6-7 goes to 9-3. Also teams coming off the right side of a shutout, esp. if they allow a lot of runs, are good teams to bet against. Baltimore allowed 5.51 runs/game last year, they shut opponents out only 7 times, and they were 2-4 straight up on days after they shut their opponent out (one of their shutouts was game 162, so it's not 7.) This is just law of averages stuff, which the parity of baseball helps. If you score 3.5 runs/game or allow 5.5 runs/game, if you are blanked/blank someone one day the next day is likely to pull you back toward your average.


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