The road to 90

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JCShutout
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The road to 90

Post by JCShutout »

I've had a gut feeling for awhile (before this past 10-3 stretch) that 90 gets the Cards into a wildcard spot securely. Maybe 88 or 89 if they beat up on the right teams, but for sure 90. At the time they needed to go 27-17. Doable, but extremely unlikely. Now, 17-14 gets them there.

10 series left. 9 3 game sets and a 4 game bout with the Dodgers. Win 6 series, split the LA series and avoid a sweep in the other 3 and they are at 90. Talk about a crazy run.

What say ye grb, is 90 enough? Do they get there?

I say they do it. Take care of Pit (2 series), Cin, Was, Det and SF. Mil, Chi and Atl are tough, but you can afford to go 3-6 against them if you take care of the rest.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: The road to 90

Post by CardsofSTL »

It should be a fun final month of the season...I think they can get to 90 plus wins so long as there are not any unforeseen injuries or craziness.

phins
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Re: The road to 90

Post by phins »

I looked at everybody's schedules and computed what the records are probable to look like- especially since the NL West is going to cannibalize themselves so much down the stretch and all contending teams play several games that will help us one way or another.

Philly plays their last 11 games against the Braves and Rockies, with 8 of them on the road. I think they're the least likely team to make the playoffs of all true contenders. I've got them at 86 wins to end the season. Mostly because I've regressed their numbers to expect some home wins.

Milwaukee only has 30 games left on the season (fewest of all contenders). While that means more rest, it also means fewer opportunities to win games. They've got the schedule to run off some wins, but I've got them down as going 16-14 and finishing with 88 wins.

Atlanta has 13 of their last 16 against Washington, Stl, Philly. 10 of those games at home. I'm projecting them to win their Stl home series and win the NL East with 90 wins.

The Dodgers are the team I hope stays out of it. They've got 31 games remaining, with 18 of them on the road. Unfortunately, they get to play the reeling Rangers twice, the Mets x 3, Padres x 3, and end the season with 6 road games against D'backs and Giants. Things will be tight, but I see them finishing with 89 wins and getting that second WC.

Arizona has a tough schedule in that they still have three 4-game series remaining. They've got the Dodgers 7 times, the Rockies 7 times, the Braves 4 times, the Cubs 3 times, and the Astros 3 times on the road. Brutal. I'm still projecting them at 90 wins and winning the NL West, but that's with regression built in. I don't trust the numbers much here and think it's going to be really tough to win the division and avoid a play-in game.

Rox are a solid team, but with 32 games remaining the numbers are tough for them to get in. I'm not projecting any three game sweeps for any of the teams, but you know that'll happen somewhere along the way. They also have three 4-game series remaining, but two of them are at home, where they play very well. I'm projecting them at 88 wins and sitting on the outside alongside the Brewers and Phillies.

This was a fun exercise because it shows just how much overlap of the schedules will end up impacting the races down the stretch. Since so many of the teams play each other, and someone has to lose each game, it's difficult for any of the teams to fall too far out of the race or to really run away with it without dealing a knockout blow to the other teams. You can see how computer models have so much parity when you input the cross-schedules and then regress for percentages.

Let's Go Birds.

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ThatGuy
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Re: The road to 90

Post by ThatGuy »

phins, where does the Cards’ record end up in your projection? If I’m reading correctly, you’ve got us as the first Wild Card playing the Dodgers, but I’m curious how many wins that entails.

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BeeHoyal
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Re: The road to 90

Post by BeeHoyal »

I think Atlanta stumbles in the last 11 days of the season, having to play Philly 7 times and misses the post season.

Philly

StLouis
Chicago
Milwaukee

Arizona

-------------------------------

I really do see a heartbreak late season ending for Atlanta. They will get over-confident and it will cost them. [-X

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pioneer98
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Re: The road to 90

Post by pioneer98 »

Seems like the odds are high that we end up with some kind of tie for the wild card spot or spots, and maybe for a division, too. The tiebreakers are a nightmare under this Selig game system.

https://www.mlb.com/news/playoff-tiebre ... c-59527184

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Jocephus
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Re: The road to 90

Post by Jocephus »

cleveland already trademarked this
[SHOW]
Image

phins
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Re: The road to 90

Post by phins »

ThatGuy wrote:phins, where does the Cards’ record end up in your projection? If I’m reading correctly, you’ve got us as the first Wild Card playing the Dodgers, but I’m curious how many wins that entails.
Sorry, 90 wins.

dmarx114
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Re: The road to 90

Post by dmarx114 »

With the schedule we have left, 17-14 seems very doable....almost likely.

But I don't think 90 clinches a spot. I think 92 does.

Braves: 90
Phillies: 88

Cubs: 95
Cards: 92
Brewers: 90

Rockies: 91
Dodgers: 90
D-Backs: 88

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Popeye_Card
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Re: The road to 90

Post by Popeye_Card »

Jocephus wrote:cleveland already trademarked this
[SHOW]
Image
What a strange logo. But at least makes some sense since Cleveland is on I-90.

Hopefully the Cardinals are not on the road to 40, 44, 55, 64, or 70.

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