InvincibleCakeEater wrote:And everyone needs to cool their jets on the Reds. They've improved from 3rd worst team in the NL to close to .500 if things break just right.
Fangraphs projected standings for the NLC:
1. Cubs - 87-75 (.536 win%)
2. Cards - 87-75 (.534 win%)
3. Pirates - 80-82 (.496)
4. Brewers - 79-83 (.489)
5. Reds - 79-83 (.485)
So, what you're saying is exactly correct about the Reds. I post those stats to validate your post... even though the rest of my post seems like an argument against it.
I think there should be a level of concern here. Fangraphs stats nerds are basically telling us that the Reds are now as good as the Brewers. The Brewers turned a comparable projection last year into an NLCS appearance. They played well above their heads -- turning a +95 run differential into a +29 wins/losses -- but were also a good team the year before. The Brewers, Reds and Pirates are all in the same class of team. In that same grouping are the Phillies, Braves, Athletics, and Rockies. All decent to good teams last year. All teams we might expect to be in the mix this year. I don't know... it doesn't take much imagination to see the Cards closer to that 2nd tier group than in the first tier group with the Cubs, Nats and Dodgers, if you ignore those projected standings and go by feeling, performance, roster, etc.
This is a tough division. And while Fangraphs thinks there's a clear separation for the Cards and Cubs, it feels a lot more tenuous than it looks. Another addition or two would be a good idea. At this point, one more good add and we would very clearly be the best team in the division from a projection standpoint. That's a place I would love to be in entering the season.