Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Discuss all things Cardinals Baseball
Post Reply
Fat Strat
Official GRB Sponsor of Larry Bigbie
Posts: 28050
Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by Fat Strat »

Popeye_Card wrote:Let's pump the brakes a little bit on Yelich being a power bat going forward though. The first 3 months of the season were pretty much in line with his career. Then he had a huge second half. Ozuna had a huge power surge in his age 26 season too, then fell back this year.

Don't get me wrong, I still like Yelich better. And I think the Cardinals did too but the asking price was different. In hindsight--yeah, we made the wrong choice. But I don't think that has anything to do with talent evaluation.
No, it definitely wasn't talent evaluation. If you believe Goold -- and, imo, he has been the most consistently right of the Cards reporters -- Yelich was their target beyond Stanton for a year or more before they settled on Ozuna.

In some ways, though, that's the problem with the Yelich situation. They evaluated correctly. They positioned themselves to make the moves they wanted -- Stanton and then Yelich. They did everything right, except that when an easier route presented itself, they took it. We paid less to get a player we knew was lesser and we got lesser production for a shorter period of time and a much lower cost. Sure, I think they hoped that Ozuna could repeat his 2017, but statistically and analytically, they knew that wasn't likely to happen. And in taking the easy road with Ozuna, we left the player we liked more out there to get snatched up by a rival. A rival who looks to me like it has a real advantage over us for the next few years. It would have been risky to either wait the Marlins out on Yelich or pay up to get him immediately after Stanton was dealt. They, as usual, took the easy, efficient, and safe route.

We win the efficiency battle almost every year. Mo's office would be filled with those plaques if such an award exists. If we want to win, we can't do that. We either need to tank so it's easier to get the higher draft picks, or we need to take risks on impact players while giving up prospects we really like.

As good as Flaherty looks, I would take Yelich over him right now and into the future. That's what it would have cost us. That was inconceivable to the Cards... which is why they are stuck where they are.

Edit: To apply this logic to Machado and make it thread-relavant, all Machado costs us is money. No players. Not even a draft pick (I think). This is the kind of risk we should take. We have the positional need. The player is available. The longterm budget situation is right. We should do what we can to make it work. It still probably won't work, but we really need to try.
Last edited by Fat Strat on October 26 18, 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Big Amoco Sign
Master of Hyperbole
Posts: 14402
Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Popeye_Card wrote:Let's pump the brakes a little bit on Yelich being a power bat going forward though. The first 3 months of the season were pretty much in line with his career. Then he had a huge second half. Ozuna had a huge power surge in his age 26 season too, then fell back this year.

Don't get me wrong, I still like Yelich better. And I think the Cardinals did too but the asking price was different. In hindsight--yeah, we made the wrong choice. But I don't think that has anything to do with talent evaluation.
Disagree on Yelich. His power is here to stay.

He's getting better at the plate in many ways. I think it will be the new norm for him. He's improved on barreling the ball and launch angle. As well as being aggressive.

Image

User avatar
go birds
-go birds
Posts: 31896
Joined: February 5 10, 9:54 am

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by go birds »

i guess we have a different definition of efficient because that is the last term i would use to describe this current regime

Fat Strat
Official GRB Sponsor of Larry Bigbie
Posts: 28050
Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by Fat Strat »

go birds wrote:i guess we have a different definition of efficient because that is the last term i would use to describe this current regime
I think efficient is the right term. We made the Ozuna deal because it was an efficient use of resources -- short commitment, required players we didn't need and didn't expect to make a longterm impact, filled a position of immediate need at a relatively low cost.

Fowler's deal could be described in similar terms. Instead of shooting for Adam Eaton or Charlie Blackmon, we snagged a lesser player on a relatively cheap deal because he didn't cost us any players, except the first round draft pick. We had money, so we used that in place of spending prospects that we liked. Efficient use of resources.

Even someone like Gregerson fits into that same category. We snagged a consistently productive reliever for quite a bit less than the impact closers because he didn't require a draft pick in compensation and we could get him for a shorter term. Efficiency.

The problem with efficiency is that it's not necessarily tied to production or talent. Using resources efficiently just means you didn't go after talent. You can't get talent efficiently. That's not how the highly competitive baseball market works. All of our moves for the past 3-5 years have left us with money in the bank to spend, prospects in the system to use, and talent on the field to fill the stands. If you want to win, you have to use one or more of those inefficiently... losing means less money and fans but better prospects. Risky trades might leave you with no talent in the system. Risky signings might leave you with no money.

User avatar
vinsanity
Chili dog truther
Posts: 8772
Joined: July 3 06, 2:19 pm
Location: Indianapolis

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by vinsanity »

Fat Strat wrote:The problem with efficiency is that it's not necessarily tied to production or talent. Using resources efficiently just means you didn't go after talent.
And wins aren't a linear cost. Adding 5 wins to an 80 win team is "cheaper" than adding 5 wins to a 90 win team. You either have to overspend on top tier talent, prospects and/or cash, or you have to get insanely lucky in the draft and luck isn't a plan.

Fat Strat
Official GRB Sponsor of Larry Bigbie
Posts: 28050
Joined: April 17 06, 9:16 pm
Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by Fat Strat »

vinsanity wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:The problem with efficiency is that it's not necessarily tied to production or talent. Using resources efficiently just means you didn't go after talent.
And wins aren't a linear cost. Adding 5 wins to an 80 win team is "cheaper" than adding 5 wins to a 90 win team. You either have to overspend on top tier talent, prospects and/or cash, or you have to get insanely lucky in the draft and luck isn't a plan.
That is an excellent point!

I really think that's been where we've gotten stuck. Those marginal upgrades that turn 2-3 WAR players into 4-5 WAR players cost so much and require so much risk. You have to have them, though. Baseball has proven it over and over again.

User avatar
MinorLeagueGuy
The Angst is Real
Posts: 18261
Joined: September 8 10, 2:57 pm

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by MinorLeagueGuy »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:Let's pump the brakes a little bit on Yelich being a power bat going forward though. The first 3 months of the season were pretty much in line with his career. Then he had a huge second half. Ozuna had a huge power surge in his age 26 season too, then fell back this year.

Don't get me wrong, I still like Yelich better. And I think the Cardinals did too but the asking price was different. In hindsight--yeah, we made the wrong choice. But I don't think that has anything to do with talent evaluation.
Disagree on Yelich. His power is here to stay.

He's getting better at the plate in many ways. I think it will be the new norm for him. He's improved on barreling the ball and launch angle. As well as being aggressive.

Image
Add in that pharce of a home field, too. Big time production.

User avatar
InvincibleCakeEater
GRB's obsessive compulsive baseball poster
Posts: 28034
Joined: October 12 07, 12:28 pm
Location: Raptured

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by InvincibleCakeEater »

I'll be surprised if Yelich hits 25 hr next year.

User avatar
MinorLeagueGuy
The Angst is Real
Posts: 18261
Joined: September 8 10, 2:57 pm

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by MinorLeagueGuy »

Gawd, does every good, necessary, player need to also be a mountain sized dickhead? I get it. He would propel us into something close to contention. But I would hate every second of hanging our collective hats on such a doosh nozzle..

User avatar
Big Amoco Sign
Master of Hyperbole
Posts: 14402
Joined: December 1 17, 11:05 am

Re: Manny Machado: The Impact Player We Need?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

MinorLeagueGuy wrote:Gawd, does every good, necessary, player need to also be a mountain sized dickhead? I get it. He would propel us into something close to contention. But I would hate every second of hanging our collective hats on such a doosh nozzle..
You'd get over it after first curtain call and a double interview with The Cat sitting next to Willie McGee.

Post Reply