dmarx114 wrote:I am getting lots of congratulatory emails from colleagues today just based on this trade. It's nice being the only Cards fan in the office when something good happens.
I got a lot of angry stares and a few upset e-mails yesterday and today.
It's fun being a well known St. Louis fan today in a Phoenix, Arizona office..
Derrick Hall - DBacks President just said on Az radio - they made the trade not because they had to, but because they got 3 players and a pick they wanted to get..
Jeff Passan was on a few minutes ago and said the DBacks are looking at Kelly as a future all star catcher.
jagtrader wrote:Carson Kelly doesn't have a good swing. That's why the power hasn't been there consistently.
This is probably true, but he doesn't need to have consistent power to be a quality starting C. All you really need is the defense and you're already well above replacement level. Kelly's BB rates have been climbing in the high minors. If he can reach the majors and carry a 9-14% BB rate - basically the range that he's shown at AAA across 3 seasons, then he only has to provide some power to be a 3 WAR player. (That assumes his defense is elite as it's always projected to be and has been in the minors.)
Kelly can be a useful player for sure. I'm not going to pretend I know his future. But his swing needs work. The smartest guy in the room way of looking at things is to squint at the prospects until you determine they're more valuable than the superstar. Love the return! That's how a team can trade Sale for Moncada and Kopech and not feel like they [expletive] themselves while the team with Sale wins 108 games and the World Series.
This is the type of "win-win" trade that the Cardinals should have been looking to make. Trade depth, usable pieces for a star. Sort of a consolidation trade of good, young pieces.
Weaver is a nice get for the Diamondbacks. A year ago at this time he would've been considered one of the better young pitchers in the NL. Now he's trash and everyone is happy that's "all" we gave up. He's probably a #4 starter with five years of control. There is a ton of surplus value in that.
Carson Kelly has long been a player I've liked because I've seen him play so dang much. His career arc just reinforces how little I really know because I thought he was going to be a power-over-hit 3B with an excellent arm. Now, he's a plus defending catcher with a suspect bat. Keep in mind the average catcher last year hit .232/.304/.372 with 8.0% walk rate and 23.5% K rates. Kelly doesn't have a high bar to climb to be a 2-WAR starting catcher with six years of control.
Andy Young is your power-over-hit archetype with suspect contact skills and is old for his league. Saw him live several times and he's just a grinder. Keep in mind, he played in the same conference with Missouri State so I've been watching the guy play live since college. He's had a bit of a swing change and sells out for power to the pull side now. He has to hit enough to be a starter because he can't play SS and he is a right-handed hitter, which reduces his value a tick more. I like him and think he's a great bench bat, low-end starter at 2B. Six years of control.
Arizona gets the pick a year early. I really wish they had balked at this part of the deal, but it's not enough to upset me.
The Diamondbacks got a whole heap for one year of Goldschmidt (plus salary savings). The Cardinals did exactly what they should be doing, which is trading fungible parts that they develop pretty well for a true star player. Will the loss of Weaver hurt us next year? I don't really think so because I think you can get 2-win pitchers pretty reliably from within or off the scrapheap. Keeping Kelly probably just makes him a diminishing asset with the clock starting. Young is a great throw-in for Arizona, but has no place for a few years here.
Fair deal that fans of both clubs should be quite happy with. I knew that Arizona was never getting an O'Neil type in the deal, but they honestly ended up with a little more than expected. The Cardinals get him now and can look for finishes at the winter meetings so they paid a tick more.
phins wrote:He's probably a #4 starter with five years of control. There is a ton of surplus value in that.
Will the loss of Weaver hurt us next year? I don't really think so because I think you can get 2-win pitchers pretty reliably from within or off the scrapheap.