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PostPosted: June 27 19, 8:10 am 
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Fat Strat for the win.


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PostPosted: June 27 19, 8:26 am 
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Jeff Albert wrote:
Well, I guess the first thing is definitely don't close your eyes. I can't stress that enough. And then we're just trying to figure it out from there. I have some ideas about bat weights. Like maybe if it's super heavy that wouldn't be so good. But what is super heavy, you know?


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PostPosted: June 27 19, 9:11 am 
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Well, the difference for where Albert is and where he was, is glaring. The biggest change; the caliber of players in one org vs another. Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, Verlander, Cole, etc, are all worlds better than anything we have. And that's just if they play at the floor of their capabilities. Playing towards that ceiling pretty much eliminates any aspect of comparative conversation between what Albert had to work with in Houston, and what he has to work with here. Great players don't fall into funks for long periods regardless of who's coaching them. Here, he was handed a bunch of average blockheads that have no idea what he's trying to impart; a conglomeration of being selective, while also being aggressive early in the count. Almost every player seems to be looking fastball, but also willing to take that fastball right down the middle if it's not in a count that's agreeable. Opposing teams are eating us alive that way.

It's also starting to to come out through team media that the hitters have had a very difficult time adjusting to the "new game plan". Kmac briefly mentioned this before yesterday's game.


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PostPosted: June 27 19, 9:12 am 
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Is Marp’s swing as slow as it appears to this amateur set of eyes?


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PostPosted: June 27 19, 9:21 am 
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Tim wrote:
GeddyWrox wrote:
This feels like a pretty big coup for us.

Wonder when he shows up for the gig?

Yeesh. That didn't age well. LOL


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PostPosted: June 27 19, 9:31 am 
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Fat Strat wrote:
Good article on VEB about just how far ranging the poor performance has been so far for the Cards.
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2019/6/26/ ... -the-board

Hitters -- only two hitters are over-performing their ZIPS projections - Ozuna and DeJong. Of those two, Ozuna is really only over-performing by a marginal amount. 8 points of OPS+ (the article's measurement tool) is not really enough for me to consider a "career year". DeJong, obviously, is dramatically exceeding expectations. The lone bright spot on the entire roster so far, imo. Two additional player are hitting their projections. The problem with them both is that the projections they are hitting are still disappointing. Bader and Fowler -- 89 and 98 OPS+ respectively -- are not providing much offense and I think many of us would have hoped and probably expected a bit more from each. So, while they are "on track", they are really just on track to be disappointing. The rest of the starters - 5 additional hitters - are under-performing expectations by 6 - 40 OPS+ points. Considering that projections like ZiPS are notoriously conservative to begin with, this represents a colossal loss of production from the team.

Pitchers -- the situation with the pitchers is about the same. Hudson is the only one exceeding projections, and he by a lot. But, overall, the impact of his performance really hasn't been felt as his overall production doesn't align with the ERA+ the article cites. Hudson has been good -- by ERA. But, he's been marginal overall, which is why he's overperforming ERA+ by 30-40 points and tracking toward a 1.2 WAR season. Mikolas, Flaherty, and Wacha -- arguably the three guys we were counting on the most (since we never really had Martinez in the rotatation) -- are all under-performing by over 10 points of ERA+, and while a deeper look into their performance can show promise (particularly for Flaherty and to some extent Mikolas), you are what you have done.

What do we make of all this? Well, lots and lots of chatter about front office decisions and talent acquisition. I get that. But, the bottom line here is that over 50% of our starting players are underperforming by 10% of more. IF the players were simply performing as they should -- not even as we hope they will -- then it's a completely different season. If you play a little loose and dirty with run differential -- adding 5% to hitting and subtracting it from pitching -- then we would be projecting toward a 90 run differential - or 90 wins. Good teams -- championship contending teams -- don't usually just get mediocre performances from their core players. They get good to great performances from guys in key roster spots. If any additional key players -- Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Flaherty, Mikolas -- were overperforming projects (even a little) while the rest hit their projections (or close to) we would be a legit championship contender - just start adding wins for each player who performed above normal.

We can talk about roster mistakes and signing players over 30, etc. but the projection systems factor those age ranges into their formulas. The math has said all along that this team should be good. It could be good. It is not good because the players aren't performing even close to norms. That's the crux of the issue this season.


This is a good summary. If I were to read the sentence "over 50% of our starting players are underperforming by 10% or more" and I didn't know anything else about the team, that by itself might not sound that bad. Because I'd assume that the other 50% of the players would be around their projection, and maybe even several overperforming. But as you describe we basically have 1 hitter overperforming by anything significant and zero starting pitchers are overperforming.


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PostPosted: July 3 19, 12:17 pm 
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Jeff Albert wrote:
If you look at the data carefully you can demonstrate that 85 percent of hitters that don't suck--or more depending on how it's parsed--hit the ball where a fielder can't get to it with the capacity to make an out more often than those hitters that do suck. It's an important part of my philosophy.


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PostPosted: July 3 19, 12:25 pm 
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i remember when i posted this, i had some level of excitement


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PostPosted: July 3 19, 1:58 pm 
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Quote:
Paul DeJong Talks Hitting
by David Laurila
July 3, 2019

Paul DeJong will represent the St. Louis Cardinals in next week’s All-Star Game. He’ll do so with solid, albeit unspectacular, offensive numbers. The 25-year-old shortstop is slashing .260/.344/.455, with 13 home runs and a 110 wRC+. Thanks in part to plus defense, he leads the Redbirds with 2.9 WAR.

Two years ago, in an interview that ran here at FanGraphs, DeJong discussed the mental side of hitting. This past weekend, the Illinois State University graduate — his degree is in biology — sat down for a far-wider-ranging conversation about his craft.


https://blogs.fangraphs.com/paul-dejong-talks-hitting/


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