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PostPosted: December 5 18, 11:50 am 
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I am not the best at determining future value, especially with an odd case like Ozuna. Someone with a seemingly chronic/nagging shoulder issue--though tough to tell after recent procedure. The guy had some high-BABIP output fueled 4.5 and 5.1. fWAR seasons respectively. There is also the variable of batting stance. The guy has shown that minor tweaks can really affect his game as well.

One thing he has going on his side with age is his exit velocity. It's a big contributing factor to how players age. And Ozuna is consistently in the top 7% of the league in that department. He is 6th in baseball in Hard Hit balls in 2018. That is reassuring in how he will age, we know he won't get Allen Craig disease where his bat will slow down. However, his long swing does make him prone to strikeouts. But his two of three higher strikeout rate seasons came during his 4.5 fWAR and 5.1 fWAR producing years. So what's the key to Ozuna having a successful year? More walks. But, less contact?

Ozuna's better seasons came when he hit the ball less and went for the big swing.

Image

Either approach gets him a floor of 2.7 fWAR, IMO. Especially if shoulder goes back to normal and his swing isn't messed with.

So if we just say Ozuna can give us 2.7-3 fWAR average in 4-5 seasons (with some 4+ in there), what is that worth? And can the Cardinals afford that?

I would put his contract around 7/185 or 6/162 range.


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 11:53 am 
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I'd offer him Hosmer's contract right now.


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:07 pm 
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I wouldn't offer him anything...let's see if he's healthy and then can test FA

I believe o'neill can duplicate close to his numbers for nuthin (of course, unless he's in a goldy deal...which I'm not taking inmate robert's word for)


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:19 pm 
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I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.

But I am okay with O'Neill taking over too. Either one wouldn't upset me.


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:22 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.


you don't think o'neill can duplicate/better ozona's floor? (2018, 2016, 2015)


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:35 pm 
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cardsfantx wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.


you don't think o'neill can duplicate/better ozona's floor? (2018, 2016, 2015)

I think he can but it looks like O'Neill will be needed in RF and maybe CF when Bader's BABIP reverts to league norms.


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:40 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
cardsfantx wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.


you don't think o'neill can duplicate/better ozona's floor? (2018, 2016, 2015)

I think he can but it looks like O'Neill will be needed in RF and maybe CF when Bader's BABIP reverts to league norms.

How much BABIP regression from Bader can be reasonably expected in the next 3-4 years (he's 24)? We're talking about a guy who has lived in the 0.340s for the majority of his professional career. Last year was 0.358


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:45 pm 
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MAGA wrote:
How much BABIP regression from Bader can be reasonably expected in the next 3-4 years (he's 24)? We're talking about a guy who has lived in the 0.340s for the majority of his professional career. Last year was 0.358

I don't want to turn this into a Bader thread but Bader's K/BB was not great in the minors and his BABIP is partially high due to beating out grounders.

Can't trust minor league BABIP as defense in the minor leagues sucks. Steamer and Depth Charts both think it will come down a bit. FWIW.

I want O'Neill at CF if Bader fades. I think Bader could easily fade. 106 wRC+ already isn't that good, what happens when the .358 BABIP comes down with that K/BB? Need O'Neill around to counter the CF position with his power and Bader-esque speed/glove too.


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:52 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.

But I am okay with O'Neill taking over too. Either one wouldn't upset me.


I tend to agree that we saw Ozuna's floor last year. It was higher than it felt like, which is a good sign. Even when one part of his game looks bad, the total sum is still pretty darn productive. In normal seasons when he's well above his floor and well below his ceiling, the cumulative production is probably near All-Star caliber. 3-4 WAR regularly, with a 5-6 WAR thrown in occassionally.

If we assume that he shows that next season and doesn't sit on his floor again, then the Hosmer deal woudl be a steal. I would think a contract that maybe starts in the $18 range and escalates to the $25-$27M range would be more likely.

Maybe... 7/$160?


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PostPosted: December 5 18, 12:54 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.

But I am okay with O'Neill taking over too. Either one wouldn't upset me.


If Ozuna was locked in, then it gives us the opportunity to take our lumps with Fowler's contract and see where Bader and O'Neill can go and other players to develop alongside or behind them. I don't see it an O'Neill vs. Ozuna situation at all.


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