What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Fat Strat wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.

But I am okay with O'Neill taking over too. Either one wouldn't upset me.
If Ozuna was locked in, then it gives us the opportunity to take our lumps with Fowler's contract and see where Bader and O'Neill can go and other players to develop alongside or behind them. I don't see it an O'Neill vs. Ozuna situation at all.
Great point. Agreed.

If we don't have Harper, I like my chances going forward with inking Ozuna as the anchor with O'Neill and Bader filling in. Mo might not like having no lefty OF though.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote: How much BABIP regression from Bader can be reasonably expected in the next 3-4 years (he's 24)? We're talking about a guy who has lived in the 0.340s for the majority of his professional career. Last year was 0.358
I don't want to turn this into a Bader thread but Bader's K/BB was not great in the minors and his BABIP is partially high due to beating out grounders.

Can't trust minor league BABIP as defense in the minor leagues sucks. Steamer and Depth Charts both think it will come down a bit. FWIW.

I want O'Neill at CF if Bader fades. I think Bader could easily fade. 106 wRC+ already isn't that good, what happens when the .358 BABIP comes down with that K/BB? Need O'Neill around to counter the CF position with his power and Bader-esque speed/glove too.
Also not trying to turn this into a Bader thread, but the Cards have intentionally targeted and developed players who can consistently outperform expected BABIP's. Bader fit that mold on draft day and he still does now. In fact, he probably fits it better than Freese, Craig, Jay, and Carpenter (to name our most famous examples of what I'm talking about.) As with those guys, a collapse in those high BABIP's will happen at some point, but that could be 4-5 years away for the 24 year old Bader.

Craig - BABIP collapse at age 30.
Freese - BABIP never collapsed, currently age 35
Carpenter -- BABIP collapse at age 31-32
Jay -- never really collapsed, though production has dropped with age.
Last edited by Fat Strat on December 5 18, 1:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Hoot45
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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Fat Strat wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:I would extend him. He has a good floor. And good aging factors. Hosmer deal would be a steal.

But I am okay with O'Neill taking over too. Either one wouldn't upset me.
If Ozuna was locked in, then it gives us the opportunity to take our lumps with Fowler's contract and see where Bader and O'Neill can go and other players to develop alongside or behind them. I don't see it an O'Neill vs. Ozuna situation at all.
In isolation, I would extend him and agree that the Hosmer deal would be a steal. But I also think it depends on where this club is going: what happens this offseason and how the current class of young players progresses. We've talked before about the Cardinals being at a crossroads in the 2019 and 2020 seasons. If you don't do anything big this offseason and the young players stall out while Molina/Carpenter age out, it changes the way I think about resigning Ozuna, and Mikolas for that matter.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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7 years feels like a long time for a player of Ozuna's caliber. I think you can get him with a 5 year extension, which I think is more comfortable locking up LF for that length.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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I would think 5/100 would do it. But this is an offseason that might reset the market.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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TheoSqua wrote:I would think 5/100 would do it. But this is an offseason that might reset the market.
That feels about right to me.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Have the Cardinals shown any interest in an extension? I don't recall seeing it.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Popeye_Card wrote:7 years feels like a long time for a player of Ozuna's caliber. I think you can get him with a 5 year extension, which I think is more comfortable locking up LF for that length.
Depends entirely on what Ozuna does next year. If he goes 5, 2.7, 5 in WAR over the last three years, it's gong to be hard not to give him a really good contract. Steamer thinks he's a 3.6 WAR next year, and that's going to be conservative... the nature of projections is to be on the safe side (50th percentile).

What's a 3.5 WAR on average player under the age of 30 who has regularly provided 4-5 WAR seasons worth on the market? You're right back to Hosmer and 8 years, $144M.

A 5 year for that player would be team friendly and I would love to do that. If Ozuna bounces back. If he doesn't and gives us another 2.5 WAR season, we walk away.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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I feel like Hosmer was a special case though, because you had two dumb teams in the Royals and Padres buying into the whole intangibles/leadership angle.

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Re: What would an Ozuna extension look like?

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Fat Strat wrote:
Popeye_Card wrote:7 years feels like a long time for a player of Ozuna's caliber. I think you can get him with a 5 year extension, which I think is more comfortable locking up LF for that length.
Depends entirely on what Ozuna does next year. If he goes 5, 2.7, 5 in WAR over the last three years, it's gong to be hard not to give him a really good contract. Steamer thinks he's a 3.6 WAR next year, and that's going to be conservative... the nature of projections is to be on the safe side (50th percentile).

What's a 3.5 WAR on average player under the age of 30 who has regularly provided 4-5 WAR seasons worth on the market? You're right back to Hosmer and 8 years, $144M.

A 5 year for that player would be team friendly and I would love to do that. If Ozuna bounces back. If he doesn't and gives us another 2.5 WAR season, we walk away.
Except Ozuna is decent at defense (when shoulder is right, and I realize that is an unknown) and he has a much better exit velo and barrel percentage. Hosmer's exit velo has gone down steadily since 2016.

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