Big Amoco Sign wrote:MAGA wrote:
How much BABIP regression from Bader can be reasonably expected in the next 3-4 years (he's 24)? We're talking about a guy who has lived in the 0.340s for the majority of his professional career. Last year was 0.358
I don't want to turn this into a Bader thread but Bader's K/BB was not great in the minors and his BABIP is partially high due to beating out grounders.
Can't trust minor league BABIP as defense in the minor leagues sucks. Steamer and Depth Charts both think it will come down a bit. FWIW.
I want O'Neill at CF if Bader fades. I think Bader could easily fade. 106 wRC+ already isn't that good, what happens when the .358 BABIP comes down with that K/BB? Need O'Neill around to counter the CF position with his power and Bader-esque speed/glove too.
Also not trying to turn this into a Bader thread, but the Cards have intentionally targeted and developed players who can consistently outperform expected BABIP's. Bader fit that mold on draft day and he still does now. In fact, he probably fits it better than Freese, Craig, Jay, and Carpenter (to name our most famous examples of what I'm talking about.) As with those guys, a collapse in those high BABIP's will happen at some point, but that could be 4-5 years away for the 24 year old Bader.
Craig - BABIP collapse at age 30.
Freese - BABIP never collapsed, currently age 35
Carpenter -- BABIP collapse at age 31-32
Jay -- never really collapsed, though production has dropped with age.