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PostPosted: December 18 18, 1:26 pm 
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MrCrowesGarden wrote:
Doesn't sound like there's any interest in bringing Ozuna back beyond this season, which is all the more reason IMO to invest more in 2019.

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QUESTION: Doesn't it seem kind of obvious that the Cardinals are planning a tear-down after 2019? At least a partial 1-2 year rebuild? I refuse to accept that the front office is stupid or careless. This HAS to be a deliberate plan. Isn't it a valid notion that management wants to provide one last crack at a championship and then let all the FA's walk before the next arrival of non-pitching prospects?

GOOLD: Deep breath. I feel a filibuster coming on. I can completely understand why you would take these tea leaves and make that reading -- but that is not what's going on here. It's the opposite. As of today, the Cardinals are on a short-fuse with this current group. They are giving it another big bat (Goldschmidt) and additions to the bullpen (lefty TBD) and they are saying this is what should win a division, and if it doesn't then they can peel off in another direction. They can abandon this core and go get another. That's not a rebuild. That's not a tank. That's not a teardown. That's a retool. And that's because they have so many pitchers under control and several position players that can help under control as well. The Cardinals will come out of this season with the following free agents and options:

Goldschmidt: If it's a match, they'll re-sign him.

Ozuna: They're counting on a big walk year and a comp pick.

Wacha: They're counting on a healthy year, and TBD future.

Carpenter: They're counting on a strong year and an easy option decision.

Wainwright: They'll see, year to year at this point.

Mikolas: They want to talk extension in spring training and have already started this conversation with his agent and both sides know there is mutual interest. Let's see if he can get a Mike Leake-level deal.

So they get to the end of the season and see Goldschmidt as part of their future, Caprenter there for another year, and the free agency of Arenado and Rendon on the horizon. They will be in position to make a play. That's not a rebuild. That's a team with revenue to make the move they want -- and no roster holding them back.


It's reason to chase Harper, but not reason to really look at much else out there right now, unless there's another high impact, young player that we can snag. Bellinger, maybe, but that seems like even longer odds than us signing Harper. So beyond the highly unlikely -- and I would put Harper in that category, even if we want to make a play for him -- it's a good plan to play out this season with this OF and then we'll know what we have with O'Neill, Bader, and Fowler in '20. O'Neill more than any of our recent OF prospects other than Taveras deserves to get a real hard and long look.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 1:28 pm 
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I do not like this. Ozuna is someone I definitely extend. No major aging factors. Cardinals are not deep at OF now and in the future. Would be good to ink somewhat of a constant that has a high ceiling.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 1:31 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I do not like this. Ozuna is someone I definitely extend. No major aging factors. Cardinals are not deep at OF now and in the future. Would be good to ink somewhat of a constant that has a high ceiling.


From what I have read, it's not so much that the Cards have no interest in re-signing him, despite Ozuna wanting to stay, it's that Ozuna has no interest in an extension. Which the Cards know, so there's not much they can do about it.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 1:33 pm 
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Fat Strat wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I do not like this. Ozuna is someone I definitely extend. No major aging factors. Cardinals are not deep at OF now and in the future. Would be good to ink somewhat of a constant that has a high ceiling.


From what I have read, it's not so much that the Cards have no interest in re-signing him, despite Ozuna wanting to stay, it's that Ozuna has no interest in an extension. Which the Cards know, so there's not much they can do about it.


esp with his agent


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 1:46 pm 
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I would agree that Ozuna won't be extended after this season.

Goldy and Mikolas will be extended.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 1:47 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I do not like this. Ozuna is someone I definitely extend. No major aging factors. Cardinals are not deep at OF now and in the future. Would be good to ink somewhat of a constant that has a high ceiling.


Corner OF is an easy place to add quick and cheap-ish production though. Take for example the good value contract Brantley just signed. Or that we were able to turn Marco Gonzalez into O'Neill.

I wouldn't mind an Ozuna extension, but I don't think it is a necessity either. We already have one corner OF weighted down with a long-term contract (Fowler). I don't mind leaving our options a little more open for the other corner.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 2:00 pm 
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Popeye_Card wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
I do not like this. Ozuna is someone I definitely extend. No major aging factors. Cardinals are not deep at OF now and in the future. Would be good to ink somewhat of a constant that has a high ceiling.


Corner OF is an easy place to add quick and cheap-ish production though. Take for example the good value contract Brantley just signed. Or that we were able to turn Marco Gonzalez into O'Neill.

I wouldn't mind an Ozuna extension, but I don't think it is a necessity either. We already have one corner OF weighted down with a long-term contract (Fowler). I don't mind leaving our options a little more open for the other corner.

Fowler, even at 16.5/year, is a wash after 2020. We paid for a plus center fielder on year one and two (though we didn't get what we wanted) so I don't think his status one way or another holds the team down at a corner OF spot after 2019. We knew he'd be a backup OF when we signed him. While expensive, sure, he's still solid there as we just signed something named Robinson to be that and Fowler has a good batting track record and switch hits to boot.

There's not going to be an Ozuna corner OF on the market at his value. Something you have to consider. He'd be basically like signing Holliday in 2010 if we extended now. Maybe not quite as valuable but when you add the younger age and adjust for inflation/market, it's similar value.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 2:17 pm 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
There's not going to be an Ozuna corner OF on the market at his value. Something you have to consider. He'd be basically like signing Holliday in 2010 if we extended now. Maybe not quite as valuable but when you add the younger age and adjust for inflation/market, it's similar value.


Offensively, Ozuna is much more similar to Dexter Fowler than Matt Holliday. To consider him similar to Holliday you have to expect his 2017 to be his new norm going forward, when at this point it seems to be an outlier. That's basically Ozuna's ceiling, while it was Matt Holliday's floor.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 2:44 pm 
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What am I missing on Ozuna? Career 0.780 OPS. Not a terror on the basepaths.

He seems like he would age terribly. He strikes out 3x for every 1 walk. He has a career OBP of 330. The shoulder thing recently.

We really want to give a guy like that 20m for ages 29-35? He seems like the kind of guy you get all the controlled production from then cut bait before he becomes a pumpkin.

His baseball-reference comparables is interesting. Really no modern baseball guys. The top 5 comps were out of baseball by age 32 or done.


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PostPosted: December 18 18, 2:55 pm 
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moot point anyway...boras won't let an upside FA sign an extension before testing the waters


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