Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

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AWvsCBsteeeerike3
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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by AWvsCBsteeeerike3 »

Something to keep in mind is the recent (last year or two) depression of player salaries.

What was the biggest deal last year? Martinez at 5/110 for a 30 year old averaging about a 150 OPS the past 4 seasons.

Lynn who was kind of a solid #3 pitcher that could eat innings didn't even surpass the QO he received from the Cardinals.

Donaldson just took a 1 year deal.

Etc etc etc. It's not a bidding war like it used to be.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by Fat Strat »

In regards to Mikolas, it is certainly in the Cards' best interests to extend Mikolas right now because his value is lower today than it probably will be at the end of the season. I do think that Mikolas would be open to it just for financial security. An injury this season and he's looking at a really weak deal in FA. But, the chance to lock in $60M and set up his family for life? He might just take it.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by CardsofSTL »

Seems to me the Cardinals did not move O'Neill in the Goldy trade partially because they see him as Ozuna's replacement next season. I don't think you will see an Ozuna extension unless they are able to move Fowler.

Goldy is going to be an interesting case...doubt he will want to talk contract until the end of the season. And if he has a typical year for him; he will probably get that 28ish million a year; the real question is how many years.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by Fat Strat »

vinsanity wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:Based on Donaldson taking under market signing at 1/23m. Ozuna is worth at least that. Plus inflation always adds an extra million.

JD, Cain, etc. were all older and proven later. Ozuna's been pretty good his whole career.
Fat Strat wrote:then I am perfectly fine letting him walk, because his 3-4 WAR production is replacable.
It is?
Yeah, I think it is. Every year there are a few 3-4 WAR corner OF'ers that hit the market or are available. We are also capable of developing them. They don't grow on trees, but they are gettable at considerably less than $24M per.
With that logic, isn't there a Wacha always available for less than $20MM?
Often there is. Look at Shelby Miller this offseason -- a guy I think we should sign. Injured. Capable of high upside. Cheap. I'm not sure that most of those players have Wacha's upside, but you can look at Mikolas and Chatwood as recent examples that fit that kind of profile. Lance Lynn. I bet we could find others; certainly quite a few in the 3 WAR range.

The difference between Wacha and those guys is that Wacha could be a 4-5 WAR pitcher if he stayed healthy and put it together. You don't get that kind of upside from those more common names.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Fat Strat wrote:In regards to Mikolas, it is certainly in the Cards' best interests to extend Mikolas right now because his value is lower today than it probably will be at the end of the season. I do think that Mikolas would be open to it just for financial security. An injury this season and he's looking at a really weak deal in FA. But, the chance to lock in $60M and set up his family for life? He might just take it.
60m seems too high. I know it's probably not but, yikes, not sure that's a good deal for the Cardinals.

He's still an unknown. Are we certain he can repeat? He looked like garbage in the spring and then turned it around fast. But, there's some aspects to his style of pitching that I can see teams picking up on more this year. Just not sure. I would play out until July at least.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by vinsanity »

Fat Strat wrote:The difference between Wacha and those guys is that Wacha could be a 4-5 WAR pitcher if he stayed healthy and put it together. You don't get that kind of upside from those more common names.
Wacha has pitched in the bigs for six different seasons and had injury issues the majority of them. How many chances does he get 'to put it together'? I'm not high on dropping committing $60MM to a guy hoping he figures it out/stays healthy. However, you're right. He is a 4+ win guy if he's healthy so it could be a worth gamble.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by dmarx114 »

I agree with all of Fat's projections except for Wacha.

I think he would get a 2 year/$20mm deal. Just too much injury risk to give him more than 2 years.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by dmarx114 »

I would hold off on extending Mikolas. Obviously, he was great last year, and I think he will be fine next year, but I don't think a 4 year extension will be a good use of money.

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

vinsanity wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:The difference between Wacha and those guys is that Wacha could be a 4-5 WAR pitcher if he stayed healthy and put it together. You don't get that kind of upside from those more common names.
Wacha has pitched in the bigs for six different seasons and had injury issues the majority of them. How many chances does he get 'to put it together'? I'm not high on dropping committing $60MM to a guy hoping he figures it out/stays healthy. However, you're right. He is a 4+ win guy if he's healthy so it could be a worth gamble.
I feel like he's worth more in the shorter/higher AAV sense than a longer deal. 3/38m (Chatwood deal) is about right for Wacha. Maybe even 2/25.

What he'll likely get: 1/15m (a deal like Lance Lynn's).

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Re: Pending FA's: What do Extensions Look Like?

Post by pioneer98 »

No way Ozuna signs an extension. He'd be selling low. He will bet on himself to have that monster bounce back season and get to test free agency.

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