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 Post subject: Re: Michael Brantley
PostPosted: December 19 18, 9:20 am 
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Location: No. 16 on the Cards Top 15 Prospect List
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
The market has not seen a 1B of Goldschmidt's caliber (someone as automatic as it gets for 5+ WAR) since....Desmond...no....Cabrera? So how do you know? See what Hosmer and Desmond got? The market is still signing guys like Cain and Fowler to 5/85...Goldschmidt is twice their skill, right?

Donaldson turned an injury walk year into 23 million for a year.

Then you have guys like Zimmerman and Chris Davis.

Goldy will get paid. Over 26 AAV too. I just don't know the years.


I was only talking about years. You made your post about dollars, which I barely mentioned.

Yeah, he'll get paid. As Popeye mentioned, $25M at least. No doubt. But, lets just see where this market continues to go as far as years. You can point to Cain as one 30+ year old who got 5 years last season, but he's a totally different type of player. Goldschmidt will be about his same age. Hosmer got a lot of years, but he was 28 (maybe 28 when he signed and 27 when he started the offseason). JD Martinez, who is not a bad comp for Goldschmidt in terms of offensive value, got 5 years as a 30 year old. What would he get as a 32 year old? Santana got 3 years.

This year, consistent to great producers McCutcheon and Brantley got 2 & 3 years respectively at the same age range as Goldschmidt. Donaldson got one, and his injuries are a consideration in the length of his deal.

So, to find anything more than 1 example (Martinez) of those longer mega deals for 30 year old corner infield/outfielders, you have to go back 3 offseasons where you find nothing but disasters. What do we read from that? I don't know. Except that the market is getting increasingly unkind to 32 year old hitters in terms of both years and dollars and that will have an impact on Goldschmidt's extension. I suspect that the money will be there but the high years will not. 3 years seems likely to me. We might have to give him 4 as an incentive to get him to sign the deal before hitting the market. (We would probably be better off letting him hit the market with a handshake agreement for last chance to match or beat.)


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 Post subject: Re: Michael Brantley
PostPosted: December 19 18, 9:27 am 
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Joined: April 22 06, 6:53 pm
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Location: St. Louis
If Goldschmidt doesn't regress this coming season I would expect him to get 5/140 at the least. I might be able to swing 6/180 if he has another really solid season. Considering every contract over 6 years to a player 32+ has been a disaster I can't imagine a team being willing to go beyond 6 years for Goldschmidt- or if they do they're basically looking at it as rolling money into future seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: Michael Brantley
PostPosted: December 19 18, 12:36 pm 
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Joined: December 20 07, 2:45 pm
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I think Goldy will get a 6 year/$162mm extension from the Cards before he reaches free agency. I think years 2-4 will be the steeper years since Yadi will be off the books by then. I can see something like:

2020: $25mm
2021: $30mm
2022: $30mm
2023: $30mm
2024: $25mm
2025: $22mm

I would be fine with this by the way.


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 Post subject: Re: Michael Brantley
PostPosted: December 19 18, 12:50 pm 
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Joined: April 18 06, 7:45 pm
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I’m still hoping they ink an extension before the season starts so they can include some of that money this season. That is assuming they aren’t paying Harper anything this season. I’d also still offer Harper a ridiculous amount on a one year contract.


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 Post subject: Re: Michael Brantley
PostPosted: December 19 18, 1:28 pm 
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gone fission
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Location: Twin Cities, MN
I just threw up in my mouth thinking of that contract for Goldschmidt.


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