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PostPosted: January 9 19, 10:05 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
haltz wrote:
33anda3rd wrote:
haltz wrote:
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You're like the guys on here who were arguing with me 7 years ago that Pujols wasn't already 2 years into a decline.

How dare you. You got lucky.


psssshhhhhh.

The numbers don't lie, haltz. I was saying in 2012 that the decline had begun and people were arguing with me that it had not. Go look on fangraphs today and tell me when the decline began.

That's part of why I'm the GRB Resident Expert On Aging Curves Among Pro Jocks.

Not 2012. You were saying that the decline had begun in 2010 when he led the league in OPS+.


You'r right, I was saying in 2010 that his decline had begun. And in 2010 he was 2 years into decline.
2008 .459 wOBA / 8,7 fWAR
2009 .447 wOBA / 8.4 fWAR
2010 .419 wOBA / 6.8 fWAR
2011 .384 wOBA / 4.0 fWAR
That's decline, year-over-year, steadily, since his peak in 2008. It was small, then it got bigger b/c that's what it tends to do, right? That he led the league in OPS+ in 2010 is meaningless. He was 5th in wOBA that year after leading the league in that measure the two years prior.



You always misconstrued the argument that you had against those folks back in the Pujols aging argument days. Considering I was one of the biggest disagreers with you, I should know.

The argument was never that Pujols had started to decline and that he was aging. We all pretty much agreed with that. The argument was about if Pujols would ever provide more value than he had in previous years. While aging trends in the same direction for everyone, the way a player ages is fluid and there can be peaks and valleys in that aging curve.

My argument was never that Pujols was aging, it was that I disagreed with your stance that it was impossible for Pujols to have another big year since he had already started down his aging slope. Sadly, the only Argument that Pujols ever gave for my point was 2014 when his wOBA spiked slightly and his fWAR went from utterly mediocre to slightly above replacement level.

So even though Pujols didn't help my cause (I expected Pujols to have a more Musial-esque aging curve at the time), I still agree with the principle of my argument.

Harper has likely already started his aging, though there have been arguments that generational talents tend to peak earlier and age slower than the average player...but I suppose that depends on how generational you feel Harper's talent is, but that doesn't mean he is never going to have a season above the .376 wOBA and 3.5 fWAR he put up in 2018.

Over the life of his contract his floor and ceiling will continue to drop, but if we say his ceiling is 6-7 wins now and will drop to 2-3 wins at the end of his contract, that is a huge variation and potential for value.

It's still entirely possible that Harper has several 6+ win seasons in his future based on his current talent regardless of his aging curve. It's also entirely possible he never cracks 4 wins again. The older he gets the former gets less likely and the latter gets more likely, but there is still plenty of statistical variation in what his performance will do in spite of his aging curve.


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PostPosted: January 9 19, 10:16 am 
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TheoSqua wrote:
Harper has likely already started his aging, though there have been arguments that generational talents tend to peak earlier and age slower than the average player...but I suppose that depends on how generational you feel Harper's talent is, but that doesn't mean he is never going to have a season above the .376 wOBA and 3.5 fWAR he put up in 2018.


Agreed, and in the realm of multi-year contacts that's no bueno for whoever is signing Harper. You don't want to give a guy $300 million because you think he can beat 3.5 wins a couple times. If he has peaked, then sure he can have a big year. I didn't say back in 2010, 2011, 2012 that Albert would not have another big year, I said that he's declining, and declining fast in 2012, and that whoever signed him would be making a colossal mistake. I did IIRC in 2012 that he would not repeat his 2008 season, which was not a risky or weird thing to say considering he was four years removed from that and had come off a 4 win year following a six win year. That's perfectly reasonable, to say that a guy who has lost over half his value in four years, steadily dropping every year, is not in his 30s going to hit that height he was at in his mid-20s. That's a perfectly sane, normal, rational thing to say.


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PostPosted: January 9 19, 10:20 am 
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even a newborn baby has started it's aging process

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PostPosted: January 9 19, 10:25 am 
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Jocephus wrote:
even a newborn baby has started it's aging process

Image


And like 62% of the males peak in high school.


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PostPosted: January 9 19, 10:52 am 
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PostPosted: January 9 19, 11:54 am 
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Quote:
Mark
12:38
It’s insane that the Cubs won’t be able to sign a generational player like Bryce Harper because of Jason Heyward. Is there really no way to trade him?

Kiley McDaniel
12:39
This is why, among other reasons, that teams are super hesitant to give out giant deals. There is an end to the money


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PostPosted: January 9 19, 3:16 pm 
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You'r right, I was saying in 2010 that his decline had begun. And in 2010 he was 2 years into decline.
2008 .459 wOBA / 8,7 fWAR
2009 .447 wOBA / 8.4 fWAR
2010 .419 wOBA / 6.8 fWAR
2011 .384 wOBA / 4.0 fWAR

I know, and I wouldn't characterize three years of black ink OPS+ as a decline even if the numbers got a little smaller each year. Next time we see three MVP level performances and you think it's the beginning of a decline phase we can make a friendly wager and I'll happily pay up if you get lucky again.


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PostPosted: January 9 19, 5:05 pm 
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philly for alot...


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PostPosted: January 10 19, 10:43 am 
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Updated Harper Hunch list:

Dodgers (8), Cardinals (4), Phillies (3), Cubs (1), White Sox (1), Angels (1), Indians (1), Yankees (1)

December 30: Dodgers (ZigZagCardsFan)
December 31: Angels (wart57)
January 2: Dodger (Phansett)
January 4: Dodgers (dmarx114)
January 5: Cardinals (letsgocards89)
January 7: Cardinals (Big Amoco Sign)
January 8: White Sox (Socnorb11)
------------------------------
January 10: Cardinals (Famous Mortimer)
January 11: Dodgers (Tim)
January 12: Cubs (InvincibleCakeEater)
January 14: Dodgers (cardsfantx)
January 15: Dodgers (33anda3rd)
January 16: Phillies (TGantz)
January 17: Dodgers (hoot45)
January 21: Dodgers (Cardinals_Spaceship)
January 22: Phillies (heyzeus)
January 23: Phillies (CardsOfSTL)
January 31: Dodgers (AWvsCBsteeeerike3)
February 3: Cardinals (Diddy)

No Date:
Yankees (doe_boy)
Indians (Popeye_Card)


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PostPosted: January 10 19, 10:57 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
The numbers don't lie, haltz. I was saying in 2012 that the decline had begun and people were arguing with me that it had not. Go look on fangraphs today and tell me when the decline began.

That's part of why I'm the GRB Resident Expert On Aging Curves Among Pro Jocks.

Weren't you stating that "decline" was proof he was older than he claimed?

According to Fangraphs 6+ wins is MVP caliber season. I have a little trouble saying going from first to second to fifth in WAR is a "decline" and not random variance in performance. Using three year cherry picked windows of peak performance that happen to have a linear trend doesn't prove a decline. Otherwise you'd have to say he was in decline from 2003-2005 when his WAR went from 9.5, 7.8, 7.7.

I think everyone agreed by by 2012 everyone had agreed 31 year old Albert Pujols was on the wrong side of his peak but I also think the drama of his move, injury and new team/league compounded it early so that by time he came back in 2014 his power and his batting eye were fairly pedestrian.


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