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Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 4:07 pm
by sjgoten6
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill are getting the most playing time. Harper is MOST likely a 1-1.5 win upgrade over one of those guys over a full season. How’s that moving the needle more than the infield move we made?
-1.2 fWAR to a 4 WAR guy? Math? 5.2 WAR swing, is it not?

The variance game means we may end up right back where we were last year with current guys. And O'Neill can coexist with Harper last I checked.
Can we just say that last year was an anomaly of a season for Fowler and not consider it a repeat this year?

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 4:09 pm
by go birds
sjgoten6 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill are getting the most playing time. Harper is MOST likely a 1-1.5 win upgrade over one of those guys over a full season. How’s that moving the needle more than the infield move we made?
-1.2 fWAR to a 4 WAR guy? Math? 5.2 WAR swing, is it not?

The variance game means we may end up right back where we were last year with current guys. And O'Neill can coexist with Harper last I checked.
Can we just say that last year was an anomaly of a season for Fowler and not consider it a repeat this year?
we can, but exactly how much better do yall expect fowler to be?

i mean ANY contribution from him this year will be a vast improvement over last year, but he's nothing more than a bench bat at this point imo.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 4:14 pm
by Big Amoco Sign
MAGA wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill are getting the most playing time. Harper is MOST likely a 1-1.5 win upgrade over one of those guys over a full season. How’s that moving the needle more than the infield move we made?
-1.2 fWAR to a 4 WAR guy? Math? 5.2 WAR swing, is it not?

The variance game means we may end up right back where we were last year with current guys. And O'Neill can coexist with Harper last I checked.
We don’t have a -1.2 war hole for 2019. If Fowler sucks, he won’t play.

We have 3 WAR pencilled in across the starting OF positions. One of them will probably overperform, one will regress.
I am going by actual success and not guesses. Harper gives you around ~4 WAR give or take. Fowler and O'Neill and even Bader repeating is a big question mark.

If it was as simple as "he won't play" well damn why didn't they try that last year? Doesn't add up. He's getting 300-400 ABs under current roster. We do know that. JMart can't field and O'Neill will also backup Bader.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 5:18 pm
by Popeye_Card
I feel pretty safe penciling in 2-3 fWAR from Fowler+O’Neill this season, and would probably bet the over. Plus O’Neill and Marp have 5+ fWAR ceilings. Gyorko does not.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 5:48 pm
by bluesman1111
Well there's no certainty in baseball, the truth is everyone is an "if", if they stay healthly or if they play well.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 6:13 pm
by Socnorb11
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill are getting the most playing time. Harper is MOST likely a 1-1.5 win upgrade over one of those guys over a full season. How’s that moving the needle more than the infield move we made?
-1.2 fWAR to a 4 WAR guy? Math? 5.2 WAR swing, is it not?

The variance game means we may end up right back where we were last year with current guys. And O'Neill can coexist with Harper last I checked.
We don’t have a -1.2 war hole for 2019. If Fowler sucks, he won’t play.

We have 3 WAR pencilled in across the starting OF positions. One of them will probably overperform, one will regress.
I am going by actual success and not guesses. Harper gives you around ~4 WAR give or take. Fowler and O'Neill and even Bader repeating is a big question mark.

If it was as simple as "he won't play" well damn why didn't they try that last year? Doesn't add up. He's getting 300-400 ABs under current roster. We do know that. JMart can't field and O'Neill will also backup Bader.
If you're going by actual success, and not guesses, then you'd better give Bryce Harper 3.5 WAR, because that's what he was last year.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 6:22 pm
by InvincibleCakeEater
Big Amoco Sign wrote:Is anyone going to Vegas on Carpenter having another 5 WAR season, especially at 3B? I know positional constants in WAR "correct" moving around, but I just cannot envision a 150+ game 3B Carpenter getting 5+ WAR. I see 3.5 at best. Newsflash: Gyorko can get you that on a high output/overachieving season ;)

Goldschmidt and Carpenter, for all intents and purposes are about the same value at 1B.

Fowler had -1.2 fWAR last year. Harper could bump that up tenfold with a 4 fWAR season. Gyorko with his top 7 or so 3B defense with 112 wRC+ would have been passable. With some platooning here and there on tougher righties.

I am afraid they do something stupid next year like sign Meh-Away-From-Coors Arenado. I hope we re-sign Goldschmidt at this point.
Most of us understand you're a valuable player, Jedd.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 22 18, 6:39 pm
by Magneto2.0
Socnorb11 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
MAGA wrote:Ozuna, Bader, and O’Neill are getting the most playing time. Harper is MOST likely a 1-1.5 win upgrade over one of those guys over a full season. How’s that moving the needle more than the infield move we made?
-1.2 fWAR to a 4 WAR guy? Math? 5.2 WAR swing, is it not?

The variance game means we may end up right back where we were last year with current guys. And O'Neill can coexist with Harper last I checked.
We don’t have a -1.2 war hole for 2019. If Fowler sucks, he won’t play.

We have 3 WAR pencilled in across the starting OF positions. One of them will probably overperform, one will regress.
I am going by actual success and not guesses. Harper gives you around ~4 WAR give or take. Fowler and O'Neill and even Bader repeating is a big question mark.

If it was as simple as "he won't play" well damn why didn't they try that last year? Doesn't add up. He's getting 300-400 ABs under current roster. We do know that. JMart can't field and O'Neill will also backup Bader.
If you're going by actual success, and not guesses, then you'd better give Bryce Harper 3.5 WAR, because that's what he was last year.
Or 1.3 if you go by bWAR

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 23 18, 7:50 am
by heyzeus
I had a dream last night that we traded Fowler to Russia. I have no idea what that means.

Re: Andrew Miller to the Cardinals

Posted: December 23 18, 7:59 am
by cardsfantx
heyzeus wrote:I had a dream last night that we traded Fowler to Russia. I have no idea what that means.
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